Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City Prediction

BBVA Compass Stadium, Houston·Allen Chapman 08/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.22
SignalHIGHModel38%SurpriseMediumGap-4.0%
Houston Dynamo Rest
5 days
St. Louis City Rest
7 days

Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City: the result in context

St. Louis City beat Houston Dynamo 1-0 in the Major League Soccer on 8 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Referee Allen Chapman averages 3.50 cards a game, 0.89 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.58
X
26%3.46
2
36%2.60
Double Chance
1X
64%1.45
X2
62%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%1.57
No
41%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.38 + 1.44 = 2.82
Over 1.5
78%1.22
Over 2.5
55%1.72
Over 3.5
33%2.81
Under 1.5
22%4.08
Under 2.5
45%2.05
Under 3.5
67%1.41
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.8 = 9.8
Over 8.5
62%1.50
Over 9.5
50%1.82
Over 10.5
39%2.41
Under 8.5
38%2.42
Under 9.5
50%1.91
Under 10.5
61%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.2 = 4
Over 3.5
57%1.79
Over 4.5
37%2.44
Under 3.5
43%2.01
Under 4.5
63%1.52

Match Events

63'Artur INIbrahim Aliyu out
63'Lawrence Ennali INHéctor Herrera out
65'Tomas Ostrak INAlexandru Măţan out
70'Lyle Foster INDuncan McGuire out
70'Felipe·De Andrade Vieira INDuane Holmes out
74'Sang-bin Jung INSimon Becher out
82'Lucas HalterFoul
82'Rafael Navarro Leal INDamion Downs out
83'Dante Polvara INDaniel Edelman out
89'Agustín Bouzat INNick Markanich out
90+7'Conrad WallemAssist: Alexandru Măţan

Lineups

Houston Dynamo
4-1-4-1Coach: Ben Olsen
St. Louis City
3-4-3Coach: Y. Damet
Avg rating6.68
Avg rating6.98
J. Bond6.831J. Bond
Felipe Andrade6.836F. Andrade
Lucas Halter6.95L. Halter
A. Resch7.234A. Resch
F. Negri7.021F. Negri
Artur6.46Artur
L. Ennali6.611L. Ennali
M. Bogusz6.319M. Bogusz
A. Bouzat6.530A. Bouzat
Guilherme7.220Guilherme
L. Foster6.49L. Foster
B. Lundt8.139B. Lundt
L. MacNaughton7.55L. MacNaughton
T. Baumgartl7.132T. Baumgartl
F. Fall7.727F. Fall
C. Wallem8.26C. Wallem
D. Polvara6.821D. Polvara
C. Durkin7.28C. Durkin
T. Totland6.614T. Totland
Jeong Sang-Bin6.477J. Sang-Bin
Rafael Navarro6.39R. Navarro
T. Ostrák6.37T. Ostrák

Houston Dynamo Substitutes

24A. Ibrahim63'for Artur6.6
3Antônio Carlos
26B. Gillingham
16H. Herrera63'for Lawrence Ennali6.5
14D. Holmes70'for Felipe·De Andrade Vieira6.7
17N. Markanich89'for Agustín Bouzat6.3
23D. McGuire70'for Lyle Foster6.7
37G. Rivera
18D. Samassékou

St. Louis City Substitutes

11S. Becher74'for Sang-bin Jung6.4
18C. Brunet
42D. Downs82'for Rafael Navarro Leal6.6
24D. Edelman83'for Dante Polvara6.8
23A. Mățan65'for Tomas Ostrak6.9
4M. Fall
31C. Olivares
99J. Orozco
91Z. Zengue

Match Stats

Houston DynamoSt. Louis City
41%Ball Possession59%
9Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards0
23Total Shots13
6Shots on Goal1
9Shots off Goal6
12Shots Inside Box8
11Shots Outside Box5
8Blocked Shots6
6Fouls13
0Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves6
322Total Passes480
271Passes Accurate425
12Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo
St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
1602Elo Rating 1646
1.25Attack 0.74
1.44Defense 1.04
23%Hit Rate 0%
7.8Shots per Game 12.0
1.6Shots on Target 5.4
3.9Corners per Game 3.5
2.6Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
  • No tendency data available

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3Wins · 30%
Draws330%
St. Louis CitySt. Louis City4Wins · 40%
2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer23/08/2026
St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
21
US Open Cup20/05/2026
St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
4222
Major League Soccer31/08/2025
St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
23
Major League Soccer29/06/2025
Houston DynamoSt. Louis City
10
Major League Soccer06/10/2024
St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
30
Major League Soccer05/05/2024
Houston DynamoSt. Louis City
00
CONCACAF Champions League28/02/2024
Houston DynamoSt. Louis City
10
CONCACAF Champions League21/02/2024
St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
21
Major League Soccer17/09/2023
Houston DynamoSt. Louis City
11
Major League Soccer04/06/2023
St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
30

Referee Profile

Allen Chapman141 matches

3.50Cards per match
3.40Yellow cards per match
0.09Red cards per match
21.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Allen Chapman3.50
Other referees4.39

3.50 cards a match, 0.89 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.39).

Cards come from 137 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps34197874:34+4064WWWLW
2FC DallasFC Dallas341610862:51+1158WDLWD
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City341591059:48+1154WLLLL
4San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes3414101057:51+652LWDLD
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo341491143:43051LLWDD
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3412111152:40+1247LLDDW
7Portland TimbersPortland Timbers341371462:61+146WWWWD
8Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3412101244:46-246WLLDD
9Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake341361553:52+145WLWWW
10Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3411111256:58-244WWWDW
11Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3411111250:57-744LWDDW
12Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids341271547:50-343LLDWD
13San DiegoSan Diego349111457:63-638LWLDD
14AustinAustin348101642:65-2334LLLWL
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City34752240:81-4126WDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps3474:3464
2FC DallasFC Dallas3462:5158
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City3459:4854
4San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes3457:5152
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3443:4351
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3452:4047
7Portland TimbersPortland Timbers3462:6146
8Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3444:4646
9Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake3453:5245
10Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3456:5844
11Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3450:5744
12Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids3447:5043
13San DiegoSan Diego3457:6338
14AustinAustin3442:6534
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City3440:8126
Promotion

About the Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City forecast

The forecasts for this Major League Soccer match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer table

St. Louis City and Houston Dynamo are close in the Major League Soccer table, 3rd and 5th, with 3 points between them. League goal record so far: Houston Dynamo 43-43, St. Louis City 59-48. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.