Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

Palmeiras
4-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Vasco DA Gama
Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo·Braulio Da Silva Machado, Brazil 23/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
61%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.85
SignalSOLIDModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+10.3%
Palmeiras Rest
3 days
Vasco DA Gama Rest
2 days

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama: result, form and history

Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 4-1 in the Serie A on 23 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Palmeiras have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 previous meetings, which averaged 2.1 goals a game. Referee Braulio Da Silva Machado averages 6.06 cards a game, 0.92 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
61%1.60
X
23%3.86
2
16%5.50
Double Chance
1X
84%1.14
X2
39%2.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.86
No
50%1.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.67 + 0.82 = 2.49
Over 1.5
75%1.27
Over 2.5
46%1.90
Over 3.5
25%3.20
Under 1.5
25%3.60
Under 2.5
54%1.91
Under 3.5
75%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.4 = 10.2
Over 8.5
66%1.30
Over 9.5
53%1.53
Over 10.5
39%1.89
Under 8.5
34%3.02
Under 9.5
47%2.29
Under 10.5
61%1.85
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.8 = 4.9
Over 3.5
69%1.21
Over 4.5
51%1.54
Under 3.5
31%3.40
Under 4.5
49%2.23

Match Events

9'Marlon FreitasFoul
44'Andrés GómezPersistent fouling
46'Alexander Barboza INMurilo out
47'José Manuel LópezAssist: Allan
50'Thiago MendesArgument
51'Vitor Roque(Penalty)
56'MauricioAssist: Andreas Pereira
58'Thiago Mendes INRamon Rique out
58'Cuiabano INRiquelme Avellar out
65'David INFacundo Colidio out
65'Adson INNuno Moreira out
71'Marlon Freitas INEmiliano Martínez out
71'Vitor Roque INJhon Arias out
71'Allan INFelipe Anderson out
72'Andrés Gómez INMarino Hinestroza out
83'Robert RenanFoul
83'Agustín Giay INKhellven out
89'José Manuel LópezAssist: Jhon Arias
90+4'Facundo Colidio

Lineups

Palmeiras
3-4-1-2Coach: Ferreira Abel
Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1Coach: Pedro Emanuel
Avg rating7.15
Avg rating6.36
Carlos Miguel7.61C. Miguel
Agustín Giay7.24A. Giay
Gustavo GómezC6.915G. Gómez
Alexander Barboza6.92A. Barboza
Allan6.940Allan
Andreas Pereira7.38A. Pereira
Marlon Freitas6.917M. Freitas
Arthur Gabriel6.756A. Gabriel
Mauricio7.718Mauricio
Vitor Roque7.39V. Roque
José Manuel López9.342J. Manuel López
Léo Jardim5.31L. Jardim
Paulo Henrique6.296P. Henrique
Carlos Cuesta5.946C. Cuesta
Robert Renan6.030R. Renan
Cuiabano5.966Cuiabano
Santiago Sosa6.65S. Sosa
Adson6.728Adson
Tchê Tchê6.23T. Tchê
Thiago MendesC6.323T. Mendes
Andrés Gómez6.211A. Gómez
David6.67David

Palmeiras Substitutes

26Murilo46'for Alexander Barboza6.9
11Jhon Arias71'for Vitor Roque6.7
32Emiliano Martínez71'for Marlon Freitas6.9
7Felipe Anderson71'for Allan6.9
12Khellven83'for Agustín Giay6.3
14Marcelo Lomba
3Bruno Fuchs
50Luis Pacheco
45Erick Belé
30Lucas Evangelista
39Heittor
37Riquelme Fillipi

Vasco DA Gama Substitutes

82Riquelme Avellar58'for Cuiabano7.0
83Ramon Rique58'for Thiago Mendes6.6
17Nuno Moreira65'for Adson6.6
9Facundo Colidio65'for David90+4'7.0
18Marino Hinestroza72'for Andrés Gómez6.7
13Daniel Fuzato
80Bruno André Azevedo Ribeiro
43Lucas Freitas
6Lucas Piton
2Puma Rodríguez
88Cauan Barros
77Claudio Spinelli

Match Stats

PalmeirasVasco DA Gama
57%Ball Possession43%
5Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards3
13Total Shots12
5Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal5
7Shots Inside Box8
6Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots3
8Fouls21
1Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves1
551Total Passes407
481Passes Accurate349
87%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

PalmeirasPalmeiras
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
1858Elo Rating 1722
1.07Attack 1.29
2.66Defense 0.71
54%Hit Rate 37%
13.6Shots per Game 15.5
4.3Shots on Target 3.4
3.7Corners per Game 4.1
2.7Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+136 Elo
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

PalmeirasPalmeiras
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

PalmeirasPalmeiras5Wins · 72%
Draws114%
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama1Wins · 14%
2.1Avg Goals
29%Both teams scored2 of 7
43%3+ goals3 of 7

Previous meetings

Serie A12/03/2026
Vasco DA GamaPalmeiras
21
Serie A02/10/2025
PalmeirasVasco DA Gama
30
Serie A04/05/2025
Vasco DA GamaPalmeiras
01
Serie A22/09/2024
Vasco DA GamaPalmeiras
01
Serie A14/06/2024
PalmeirasVasco DA Gama
20
Serie A27/08/2023
PalmeirasVasco DA Gama
10
Serie A23/04/2023
Vasco DA GamaPalmeiras
22

Referee Profile

Braulio Da Silva Machado211 matches

6.06Cards per match
5.77Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
27.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Braulio Da Silva Machado6.06
Other referees5.14

6.06 cards a match, 0.92 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.14).

Cards come from 161 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo33227468:28+4073WWWWD
2PalmeirasPalmeiras332010356:22+3470DWWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro331761052:46+657WWWLW
4FluminenseFluminense33159952:42+1054WLLLW
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense33159950:40+1054LDLWD
6BahiaBahia331411848:42+653WDLWL
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG331481144:39+550LLWWD
8SantosSantos3312111049:47+247DDWLD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino331281342:38+444WLDWD
10Sao PauloSao Paulo331271439:39043LDWWL
11CoritibaCoritiba331191340:50-1042WLLDL
12BotafogoBotafogo331091445:53-839LLWDL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama321081440:49-938LWLDW
14VitoriaVitoria331081535:48-1338LDDLW
15GremioGremio339101437:44-737WWLDD
16MirassolMirassol339101437:47-1037LDWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians33991536:42-636WLDLL
18InternacionalInternacional338111437:42-535LWLDW
19RemoRemo336111636:51-1529WLDDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc32491932:66-3421LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3368:2873
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3356:2270
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3352:4657
4FluminenseFluminense3352:4254
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3350:4054
6BahiaBahia3348:4253
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3344:3950
8SantosSantos3349:4747
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3342:3844
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3339:3943
11CoritibaCoritiba3340:5042
12BotafogoBotafogo3345:5339
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3240:4938
14VitoriaVitoria3335:4838
15GremioGremio3337:4437
16MirassolMirassol3337:4737
17CorinthiansCorinthians3336:4236
18InternacionalInternacional3337:4235
19RemoRemo3336:5129
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3232:6621
PromotionRelegation

About the Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Palmeiras are 2nd and Vasco DA Gama 13th, 32 points apart. League goal record so far: Palmeiras 56-22, Vasco DA Gama 40-49. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Palmeiras have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.