Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Prediction
Brazil · Regular Season - 27
Allianz Parque, Sao Paulo 12/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
Value Analysis
57%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
2.11
SignalNEUTRALModel57%SurpriseMediumGap+9.3%
Palmeiras Rest
2 days
Sao Paulo Rest
3 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
154%1.65
X27%3.65
219%5.50
Double Chance
1X81%1.15
X246%2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes57%2.03
No43%1.72
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.6 + 0.98 = 2.58
Over 1.573%1.33
Over 2.554%2.11
Over 3.532%3.80
Under 1.527%3.08
Under 2.546%1.73
Under 3.568%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.9 + 4.2 = 11.1
Over 8.569%1.38
Over 9.568%1.67
Over 10.555%2.10
Under 8.531%2.70
Under 9.532%2.10
Under 10.545%1.67
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.5 = 4.2
Over 3.561%1.20
Over 4.542%1.39
Under 3.539%4.30
Under 4.558%2.83
Match Events
12'Pablo MaiaFoul
38'Card upgrade confirmedLuis Osorio Messias De Oliveira
39'Luis Osorio Messias De OliveiraSerious foul
45'Joaquín Piquerez INArthur Gabriel out
45'Agustin Giay INKhellven Douglas Silva Oliveira out
45'Cauly Oliveira Souza INRobert Arboleda out
45+1'Murilo Cerqueira Paim
45+4'Gustavo GómezFoul
45+5'Agustin GiayFoul
50'Vitor RoqueAssist: Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira
64'Andre Silva INArtur Victor Guimarães out
64'Wendell INIago Amaral Borduchi out
64'Djhordney Ferreira INDanielzinho out
67'Lucas Evangelista INLuis Pacheco out
67'Jhon Arias INFelipe Anderson out
76'Murilo Cerqueira PaimFoul
76'Aldemir Ferreira INTetê out
77'José Manuel López INLarson Torna Ferreira dos Santos out
85'Larson Torna Ferreira dos SantosFoul
Lineups
PalmeirasSao Paulo
5-4-1Coach: Dorival JúniorAvg ratingAvg rating
1C. Miguel
26Murilo
15G. Gómez
3B. Fuchs
4A. Giay
8A. Pereira
30L. Evangelista
22J. Piquerez
11J. Arias
42J. López
9V. Roque
31C. Coronel
27V. Sá
28Newton
2R. Tolói
54O. Luis
18Wendell
80Cauly
48D. Ferreira
29P. Maia
11Ferreira
17A. SilvaPalmeiras Substitutes
39Heittor
56Arthur45'for Joaquín Piquerez
12Khellven45'for Agustin Giay
48Larson77'for José Manuel López85'
29M. C. Bilong
7Felipe Anderson67'for Jhon Arias
14Marcelo Lomba
45Erick Machado
32E. Martínez
21Bruno Bertinato
50Luis Felipe67'for Lucas Evangelista
43Benedetti
Sao Paulo Substitutes
43G. Santana
34Tetê76'replaced by Aldemir Ferreira
12Iago64'for Wendell
53Isac
9J. Calleri
19Lucas Ramon
8Marcos Antônio
46Pedro Ferreira
23Rafael
5R. Arboleda45'for Cauly Oliveira Souza
37Artur64'for Andre Silva
94Danielzinho64'for Djhordney Ferreira
Match Stats
PalmeirasSao Paulo 57%Ball Possession43%
9Corner Kicks6
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
19Total Shots8
7Shots on Goal2
9Shots off Goal2
12Shots Inside Box4
7Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots4
21Fouls12
3Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves5
527Total Passes400
458Passes Accurate335
87%Pass Accuracy84%
Team Comparison
PalmeirasSao Paulo1874Elo Rating 1666
2.18Attack 1.10
2.59Defense 1.98
66%Hit Rate 31%
17.3Shots per Game 15.5
5.6Shots on Target 4.5
5.9Corners per Game 6.8
1.9Cards per Game 3.3
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+207 Elo
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Palmeiras- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 0.7 in second half)
Sao Paulo- Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
- Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.3 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Palmeiras7Wins · 70%Draws330%
Sao Paulo0Wins · 0%
0Wins · 0%2.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
22/03/2026Sao PauloPalmeiras01
02/03/2026PalmeirasSao Paulo21
24/01/2026PalmeirasSao Paulo31
05/10/2025Sao PauloPalmeiras23
11/05/2025PalmeirasSao Paulo10
11/03/2025PalmeirasSao Paulo10
16/02/2025PalmeirasSao Paulo00
18/08/2024PalmeirasSao Paulo21
30/04/2024Sao PauloPalmeiras00
04/03/2024Sao PauloPalmeiras11
Choque-ReiFull head-to-head record
Recent Form
Palmeiras4W5D1L
10/09/2026Palmeiras
LDU de Quito
SantosPalmeiras
MirassolPalmeirasPalmeiras
Vasco DA Gama
Cerro PortenoPalmeiras
FluminensePalmeirasPalmeiras
Internacional
PalmeirasLDU de Quito10
W06/09/2026
BotafogoPalmeiras
03/09/2026BotafogoPalmeiras00
DSantosPalmeiras00
D30/08/2026MirassolPalmeiras11
D27/08/2026PalmeirasSantos
23/08/2026PalmeirasSantos30
WPalmeirasVasco DA Gama41
W20/08/2026Cerro PortenoPalmeiras01
W15/08/2026FluminensePalmeiras32
L13/08/2026PalmeirasCerro Porteno
09/08/2026PalmeirasCerro Porteno11
DPalmeirasInternacional00
DSao Paulo3W3D4L
09/09/2026
Boca JuniorsSao PauloSao Paulo
Atletico-MGSao Paulo
RB Bragantino
Chapecoense-scSao PauloSao Paulo
BolívarBolívarSao Paulo
GremioSao Paulo
FlamengoSao PauloSao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
Boca JuniorsSao Paulo10
L05/09/2026Sao PauloAtletico-MG20
W30/08/2026Sao PauloRB Bragantino21
W23/08/2026Chapecoense-scSao Paulo10
L19/08/2026Sao PauloBolívar31
W16/08/2026Sao Paulo
Coritiba
12/08/2026Sao PauloCoritiba11
DBolívarSao Paulo11
D08/08/2026GremioSao Paulo21
L26/07/2026FlamengoSao Paulo11
D23/07/2026Sao PauloAtletico Paranaense12
LLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71:29 | +42 | 76 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62:23 | +39 | 73 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55:48 | +7 | 60 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55:42 | +13 | 57 | WWLLL |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51:43 | +8 | 54 | LLDLW |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50:45 | +5 | 53 | LWDLW |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44:40 | +4 | 50 | LLLWW |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44:39 | +5 | 47 | WWLDW |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50:49 | +1 | 47 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39:39 | 0 | 44 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46:53 | -7 | 42 | WLLWD |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40:51 | -11 | 42 | LWLLD |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43:50 | -7 | 41 | WLWLD |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39:48 | -9 | 40 | WLDWL |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35:51 | -16 | 38 | LLDDL |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38:42 | -4 | 38 | WLWLD |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:42 | -6 | 37 | DWLDL |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38:47 | -9 | 37 | LWWLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37:57 | -20 | 29 | LWLDD |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33:68 | -35 | 21 | LLWLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 71:29 | 76 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 62:23 | 73 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 55:48 | 60 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 55:42 | 57 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 51:43 | 54 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 50:45 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 44:40 | 50 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 44:39 | 47 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 50:49 | 47 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 39:39 | 44 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 40:51 | 42 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 43:50 | 41 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 39:48 | 40 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 35:51 | 38 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 38:42 | 38 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 36:42 | 37 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 38:47 | 37 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 37:57 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 33:68 | 21 |
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About the Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo forecast
As a derby, this Serie A meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
Palmeiras and Sao Paulo in the Serie A table
In the Serie A table, Palmeiras are 2nd and Sao Paulo 10th, 29 points apart. League goal record so far: Palmeiras 62-23, Sao Paulo 39-39. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Palmeiras have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.