Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction

Fluminense
1-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Palmeiras
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro·Facundo Tello 15/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
8.1 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.44
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseHighGap-0.8%
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.44
SignalGOODModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+4.3%
Fluminense Rest
3 days
Palmeiras Rest
3 days

Fluminense vs Palmeiras: the result in context

Palmeiras beat Fluminense 2-1 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 15 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Palmeiras had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Fluminense.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.89
X
31%2.87
2
31%2.73
Double Chance
1X
69%1.44
X2
62%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.05
No
55%1.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.39 + 0.93 = 2.32
Over 1.5
66%1.52
Over 2.5
38%2.60
Over 3.5
20%5.10
Under 1.5
34%2.50
Under 2.5
62%1.47
Under 3.5
80%1.13
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 3.9 = 8.5
Over 8.5
56%1.48
Over 9.5
45%1.83
Over 10.5
34%2.36
Under 8.5
44%2.45
Under 9.5
55%1.89
Under 10.5
66%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2 = 4.4
Over 3.5
65%1.20
Over 4.5
45%1.42
Under 3.5
35%4.20
Under 4.5
55%2.75

Match Events

45'José Manuel LópezAssist: Joaquín Piquerez
45'Matheus Martinelli Lima INHércules Pereira do Nascimento out
49'Alexander BarbozaFoul
63'Agustín Canobbio INKevin Serna out
74'Andreas Pereira INMaurício Magalhães Prado out
74'José Manuel López INRamon Sosa out
74'Jhon Arias INFelipe Anderson out
78'Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima INLuciano Acosta out
78'Hulk INRodrigo Castillo out
84'Jefferson David Savarino Quintero INWesley Natã de Freitas Prado out
85'Marlon FreitasAssist: Felipe Anderson
90+3'Wesley Natã de Freitas PradoAssist: Claudio Rodrigues Gomes
90+6'Agustin GiayArgument
90+6'Maurício Magalhães PradoArgument
90+6'Gustavo Nonato SantanaArgument

Lineups

Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Marcão
Palmeiras
3-4-2-1Coach: Abel Ferreira
Avg rating6.41
Avg rating6.80
Fábio5.81Fábio
Guga6.823Guga
Thiago Silva6.63T. Silva
J. Millán6.529J. Millán
Guilherme Arana6.713G. Arana
Nonato6.616Nonato
Martinelli6.18Martinelli
A. Canobbio5.917A. Canobbio
PH Ganso7.010P. Ganso
J. Savarino6.311J. Savarino
Hulk6.47Hulk
Carlos Miguel6.01C. Miguel
Murilo6.926Murilo
G. Gómez6.815G. Gómez
A. Barboza6.82A. Barboza
A. Giay6.34A. Giay
Marlon Freitas8.217M. Freitas
Lucas Evangelista7.030L. Evangelista
J. Piquerez7.222J. Piquerez
J. Arias6.411J. Arias
Andreas Pereira6.48A. Pereira
J. López7.742J. López

Fluminense Substitutes

19R. Castillo78'for Hulk6.3
32L. Acosta78'for Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima6.0
94Otávio
35Hércules45'for Matheus Martinelli Lima6.2
21Igor Rabello
44Jemmes
6Renê
90K. Serna63'for Agustín Canobbio6.2
30Y. Soteldo
2Samuel Xavier
27Marcelo
34Wesley Nata84'for Jefferson David Savarino Quintero90+3'7.3

Palmeiras Substitutes

7Felipe Anderson74'for Jhon Arias6.5
14Marcelo Lomba
18Maurício74'for Andreas Pereira90+6'6.3
32E. Martínez
50Luis Felipe
10Paulinho
56Arthur
12Khellven
19R. Sosa74'for José Manuel López6.7
48Larson
39Heittor
3Bruno Fuchs

Match Stats

FluminensePalmeiras
70%Ball Possession30%
6Corner Kicks0
1Yellow Cards3
11Total Shots7
3Shots on Goal5
6Shots off Goal2
5Shots Inside Box6
6Shots Outside Box1
2Blocked Shots0
9Fouls15
2Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves2
809Total Passes353
729Passes Accurate279
14Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

FluminenseFluminense
PalmeirasPalmeiras
1718Elo Rating 1874
1.58Attack 1.94
1.67Defense 2.58
31%Hit Rate 86%
11.9Shots per Game 16.0
4.3Shots on Target 6.7
3.5Corners per Game 4.1
2.3Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

FluminenseFluminense
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
PalmeirasPalmeiras
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

FluminenseFluminense4Wins · 40%
Draws330%
PalmeirasPalmeiras3Wins · 30%
2.1Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A15/08/2026
FluminensePalmeiras
32
Serie A26/02/2026
PalmeirasFluminense
21
Serie A23/11/2025
PalmeirasFluminense
00
Serie A24/07/2025
FluminensePalmeiras
12
Serie A08/12/2024
PalmeirasFluminense
01
Serie A25/07/2024
FluminensePalmeiras
10
Serie A03/12/2023
PalmeirasFluminense
10
Serie A06/08/2023
FluminensePalmeiras
21
Serie A28/08/2022
FluminensePalmeiras
11
Serie A08/05/2022
PalmeirasFluminense
11

Referee Profile

Facundo Tello242 matches

5.27Cards per match
5.00Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
26.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Facundo Tello5.29
Other referees5.12

5.29 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.12).

Cards come from 229 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Group C

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia651015:6+916WWDWW
2FluminenseFluminense62227:708WWDLL
3BolívarBolívar61236:8-25LLDWD
4Deportivo La GuairaDeportivo La Guaira60336:13-73LLDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia615:616
2FluminenseFluminense67:78
3BolívarBolívar66:85
4Deportivo La GuairaDeportivo La Guaira66:133

Group F

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Cerro PortenoCerro Porteno64116:2+413WWWDW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras632110:5+511WLWDW
3Sporting CristalSporting Cristal62046:9-36LLLWL
4JuniorJunior61145:11-64LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Cerro PortenoCerro Porteno66:213
2PalmeirasPalmeiras610:511
3Sporting CristalSporting Cristal66:96
4JuniorJunior65:114

About the Fluminense vs Palmeiras forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Libertadores

More CONMEBOL Libertadores fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 8.1 out of 10 by our context model. Fluminense have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Palmeiras have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.