Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad Prediction

Lillestrom
1-4
Finished
HT 1-2
Fredrikstad
Åråsen, Lillestrøm·Tore Hansen, Norway 30/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
86%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel61%SurpriseHighGap+2.2%
Value Analysis
61%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.75
SignalSOLIDModel52%SurpriseHighGap+7.6%
Lillestrom Rest
3 days
Fredrikstad Rest
8 days

Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad: the result in context

Fredrikstad beat Lillestrom 4-1 in the Eliteserien on 30 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Fredrikstad had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Lillestrom.

Their 4 previous meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%1.75
X
25%3.65
2
17%4.43
Double Chance
1X
83%1.20
X2
42%2.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.71
No
43%2.02
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.91 + 1.19 = 3.10
Over 1.5
82%1.22
Over 2.5
59%1.78
Over 3.5
32%2.85
Under 1.5
18%3.92
Under 2.5
41%2.00
Under 3.5
68%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 4.3 = 10.5
Over 8.5
74%1.28
Over 9.5
60%1.51
Over 10.5
54%1.79
Under 8.5
26%3.12
Under 9.5
40%2.42
Under 10.5
46%1.94
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 3.3 = 4.8
Over 3.5
68%-
Over 4.5
47%-
Under 3.5
32%-
Under 4.5
53%-

Match Events

8'S. OwusuAssist: S. Sorlokk
17'F. Elkaer
18'M. Nilsson(Penalty)
37'F. Gulbrandsen(Penalty)
46'F. Elkaer IND. Bassi out
54'B. Faraas
59'S. Leach INJ. Jezierski out
59'S. Laghzaoui ING. Wesseh out
59'D. Eid INF. Ghebreyohannes out
64'F. Gulbrandsen INT. Olsen out
65'B. FaraasAssist: H. Skogvold
67'S. Owusu INS. Rafn out
72'E. Kitolano INH. Woxen out
79'B. Faraas
83'I. Amundsen INU. Fredriksen out
86'H. Woxen

Lineups

Lillestrom
4-1-4-1Coach: Hans Odegaard
Fredrikstad
3-4-3Coach: Casper Rojkjaer
Avg rating6.34
Avg rating7.06
Pontus Dahlberg6.512P. Dahlberg
Sturla Ottesen5.33S. Ottesen
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås6.04E. Bjørnsen Garnås
Stian Kristiansen6.047S. Kristiansen
Frederik Elkær5.911F. Elkær
Ylldren Ibrahimaj7.329Y. Ibrahimaj
Yaw Paintsil6.526Y. Paintsil
Henrik Melland6.516H. Melland
Eric KitolanoC6.217E. Kitolano
Felix Vá6.720F. Vá
Fredrik Gulbrandsen7.28F. Gulbrandsen
Martin Borsheim6.677M. Borsheim
Isak Helstad Amundsen7.038I. Helstad Amundsen
Fredrik Holmé7.04F. Holmé
Solomon Owusu7.928S. Owusu
Daniel Eid6.716D. Eid
Samuel Leach Holm7.66S. Leach Holm
Max Nilsson8.014M. Nilsson
Sondre SørløkkC6.213S. Sørløkk
Benjamin Faraas8.57B. Faraas
Henrik Langaas Skogvold7.223H. Langaas Skogvold
Salim Laghzaoui6.79S. Laghzaoui

Lillestrom Substitutes

22Daniel Bassi46'for F. Elkaer6.6
1Stephan Hagerup
2Lars Ranger
5Sander Moen Foss
6Harald Woxen72'for E. Kitolano86'5.9
15Gustav Nordh
25Seun Akanji
10Thomas Lehne Olsen64'for F. Gulbrandsen6.2

Fredrikstad Substitutes

1Oystein Ovretveit
12Ulrik Fredriksen83'for I. Amundsen6.7
5Simen Rafn67'for S. Owusu6.5
19Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem59'for D. Eid6.7
24Leonard Owusu
21Jakub Jezierski59'for S. Leach6.7
29Gabriel Wesseh59'for S. Laghzaoui6.9
18Bryan Fiabema
10Johannes Núñez

Match Stats

LillestromFredrikstad
54%Ball Possession46%
10Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots13
5Shots on Goal9
8Shots off Goal3
12Shots Inside Box8
6Shots Outside Box5
5Blocked Shots1
10Fouls8
5Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves4
523Total Passes458
423Passes Accurate362
81%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

LillestromLillestrom
FredrikstadFredrikstad
1677Elo Rating 1598
1.12Attack 1.81
1.36Defense 0.12
59%Hit Rate 23%
16.7Shots per Game 15.3
4.1Shots on Target 4.6
3.6Corners per Game 5.1
1.7Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.1 goals
⚠️Home Rotation Risk90%

Game State Tendencies

LillestromLillestrom
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FredrikstadFredrikstad
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

LillestromLillestrom1Wins · 25%
Draws125%
FredrikstadFredrikstad2Wins · 50%
2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4

Previous meetings

Eliteserien11/07/2026
FredrikstadLillestrom
02
NM Cupen21/05/2025
LillestromFredrikstad
3111
Eliteserien20/10/2024
FredrikstadLillestrom
21
Eliteserien20/05/2024
LillestromFredrikstad
03

Recent Form

LillestromLillestrom
3W2D5L
27/08/2026
LillestromEgnatia Rrogozhinë
2111
W
20/08/2026
Egnatia RrogozhinëLillestrom
00
D
15/08/2026
KFUM OsloLillestrom
11
D
09/08/2026
LillestromRosenborg
02
L
31/07/2026
Bodo/GlimtLillestrom
40
L
22/07/2026
LillestromViking
12
L
18/07/2026
LillestromKFUM Oslo
21
W
11/07/2026
FredrikstadLillestrom
02
W
26/06/2026
LillestromDegerfors IF
23
L
20/06/2026
FC MidtjyllandLillestrom
10
L
FredrikstadFredrikstad
5W1D4L

Referee Profile

Tore Hansen126 matches

3.50Cards per match
3.36Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
20.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tore Hansen3.50
Other referees3.29

3.50 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.29).

Cards come from 114 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eliteserien 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1VikingViking26202469:27+4262WLWWW
2Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt26202463:23+4062WWLWW
3RosenborgRosenborg26144853:32+2146WWWWD
4LillestromLillestrom26143939:35+445WWWWD
5MoldeMolde26135864:44+2044DLWWD
6TromsoTromso26117843:40+340LLLDD
7BrannBrann261031347:44+333DWLLL
8ValerengaValerenga26951243:47-432LWWWL
9Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF26871132:42-1031LLWLW
10KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo26871133:46-1331LDDDW
11Ham-KamHam-Kam26861238:53-1530WDLLW
12FredrikstadFredrikstad26861231:46-1530DLLLD
13SandefjordSandefjord26771231:39-828DWLLD
14Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK26751430:51-2126WWDLL
15AalesundAalesund26591245:60-1524LLLWL
16StartStart26541727:59-3219LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1VikingViking2669:2762
2Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt2663:2362
3RosenborgRosenborg2653:3246
4LillestromLillestrom2639:3545
5MoldeMolde2664:4444
6TromsoTromso2643:4040
7BrannBrann2647:4433
8ValerengaValerenga2643:4732
9Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF2632:4231
10KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo2633:4631
11Ham-KamHam-Kam2638:5330
12FredrikstadFredrikstad2631:4630
13SandefjordSandefjord2631:3928
14Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK2630:5126
15AalesundAalesund2645:6024
16StartStart2627:5919
Champions LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad forecast

The forecasts for this Eliteserien match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lillestrom and Fredrikstad in the Eliteserien table

In the Eliteserien table, Lillestrom are 4th and Fredrikstad 12th, 15 points apart. League goal record so far: Lillestrom 39-35, Fredrikstad 31-46. The full standings are on the Eliteserien Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.