Molde vs Fredrikstad Prediction

Molde
5-1
Finished
HT 3-1
Fredrikstad
Aker Stadion, Molde·Ola Hobber Nilsen 25/10/2026
MoldeMolde
5-1
Finished
FredrikstadFredrikstad

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalGOODModel75%SurpriseMediumGap+0.8%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Molde Rest
7 days
Fredrikstad Rest
8 days

Molde vs Fredrikstad: the result in context

Molde beat Fredrikstad 5-1 in the Eliteserien on 25 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Molde had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Fredrikstad.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.2 a game across 5 meetings, with both teams scoring in 3.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
69%1.40
X
19%4.92
2
12%6.50
Double Chance
1X
88%1.11
X2
31%2.83
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.56
No
40%2.28
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.03 + 1.08 = 3.11
Over 1.5
85%1.11
Over 2.5
67%1.40
Over 3.5
46%2.02
Under 1.5
15%6.42
Under 2.5
33%2.88
Under 3.5
54%1.76
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4.1 = 10.1
Over 8.5
66%1.27
Over 9.5
55%1.51
Over 10.5
43%1.87
Under 8.5
34%3.14
Under 9.5
45%2.30
Under 10.5
57%1.83
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 1.9 = 3.4
Over 3.5
45%-
Over 4.5
26%-
Under 3.5
55%-
Under 4.5
74%-

Match Events

2'Caleb SeryFoul
8'Bryan FiabemaAssist: Sondre Sørløkk
11'Kristian LonebuAssist: Sander Hestetun Kilen
17'Kristian LonebuAssist: Mathias Lovik
35'Emil BreivikAssist: Martin Linnes
53'Samuel HolmFoul
59'Samuel Holm INBenjamin Thoresen Faraas out
59'Bryan Fiabema INHenrik Langaas Skogvold out
60'Kristian LonebuAssist: Sondre Granaas
63'Kristian LonebuAssist: Emil Breivik
64'Sander Hestetun Kilen INJalal Abdullai out
64'Kristian Lonebu INOskar Spiten Nysaeter out
67'Solomon Owusu INUlrik Tillung Fredriksen out
67'Gabriel Wesseh INLeonard Owusu out
70'Martin LinnesFoul
75'Sondre Granaas INNiklas Ödegard out
75'Daniel Daga INMats Møller Dæhli out
78'Fredrik Kristensen Dahl INBirk Risa out
82'Liam West INJohannes Andres Hummelvoll-Nunez out

Lineups

Molde
4-2-3-1Coach: S. Tjelmeland
Fredrikstad
3-4-3Coach: Casper Röjkjaer
Avg rating7.12
Avg rating6.42
A. Posiadała7.922A. Posiadała
M. Linnes6.825M. Linnes
E. Haugan6.819E. Haugan
F. Dahl6.727F. Dahl
M. Løvik6.98M. Løvik
E. Breivik9.010E. Breivik
D. Daga7.130D. Daga
C. Zady Sery6.411C. Zady Sery
S. Granaas7.023S. Granaas
S. Kilen6.716S. Kilen
K. Lonebu9.9420K. Lonebu
M. Børsheim6.777M. Børsheim
I. Amundsen6.338I. Amundsen
F. Holmé6.14F. Holmé
S. Owusu5.928S. Owusu
F. Ghebreyohannes6.619F. Ghebreyohannes
S. Leach Holm6.36S. Leach Holm
M. Nilsson6.514M. Nilsson
S. Sørløkk7.013S. Sørløkk
G. Wesseh6.529G. Wesseh
B. Fiabema7.918B. Fiabema
L. West6.411L. West

Molde Substitutes

9J. Abdulai64'for Sander Hestetun Kilen6.6
17M. Møller Dæhli75'for Daniel Daga7.2
26S. Kabini
24Trent Toure Kone Doherty
12P. Lervik
6N. Ødegård75'for Sondre Granaas6.0
33B. Risa78'for Fredrik Kristensen Dahl6.5
21O. Spiten-Nysæter64'for Kristian Lonebu6.5
50Ioan Alexandru Szamboti

Fredrikstad Substitutes

30J. Torkildsen
23H. Skogvold59'for Bryan Fiabema6.2
5S. Rafn
24L. Owusu67'for Gabriel Wesseh5.8
10J. Hummelvoll-Nuñez82'for Liam West6.8
9S. Laghzaoui
21J. Jezierski
12U. Fredriksen67'for Solomon Owusu5.8
7B. Thoresen59'for Samuel Holm6.1

Match Stats

MoldeFredrikstad
62%Ball Possession38%
5Corner Kicks9
2Yellow Cards1
19Total Shots14
10Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal6
16Shots Inside Box9
3Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots2
10Fouls10
2Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves5
726Total Passes445
655Passes Accurate392
9Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

MoldeMolde
FredrikstadFredrikstad
1706Elo Rating 1618
3.80Attack 1.27
1.74Defense 1.63
58%Hit Rate 17%
21.1Shots per Game 14.2
10.2Shots on Target 3.0
5.9Corners per Game 4.6
2.1Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.11 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

MoldeMolde
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.5 vs 1.3 in first half)
FredrikstadFredrikstad
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

MoldeMolde1Wins · 20%
Draws240%
FredrikstadFredrikstad2Wins · 40%
3.2Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
60%3+ goals3 of 5

Previous meetings

Eliteserien13/09/2025
MoldeFredrikstad
12
Eliteserien12/07/2025
FredrikstadMolde
42
NM Cupen07/12/2024
FredrikstadMolde
5040
Eliteserien14/09/2024
MoldeFredrikstad
61
Eliteserien13/07/2024
FredrikstadMolde
00

Recent Form

Referee Profile

Ola Hobber Nilsen117 matches

3.14Cards per match
3.07Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
20.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ola Hobber Nilsen3.14
Other referees3.36

3.14 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.36).

Cards come from 100 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eliteserien 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1VikingViking24192362:23+3959WWWWW
2Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt24182458:21+3756LWWLW
3MoldeMolde24134757:36+2143WWDLW
4RosenborgRosenborg24124846:31+1540WWDWW
5TromsoTromso24117643:34+940LDDWL
6LillestromLillestrom24123935:33+239WWDLW
7Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF2487930:35-531WLWLD
8KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo24861030:39-930DDWWW
9BrannBrann24921342:40+229LLLWL
10ValerengaValerenga24851139:46-729WWLDL
11FredrikstadFredrikstad24851129:41-1229LLDDD
12Ham-KamHam-Kam24751233:51-1826LLWLL
13SandefjordSandefjord24661222:31-924LLDWL
14AalesundAalesund24591040:53-1324LWLWL
15Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK24551425:49-2420DLLLL
16StartStart24541526:54-2819WLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1VikingViking2462:2359
2Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt2458:2156
3MoldeMolde2457:3643
4RosenborgRosenborg2446:3140
5TromsoTromso2443:3440
6LillestromLillestrom2435:3339
7Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF2430:3531
8KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo2430:3930
9BrannBrann2442:4029
10ValerengaValerenga2439:4629
11FredrikstadFredrikstad2429:4129
12Ham-KamHam-Kam2433:5126
13SandefjordSandefjord2422:3124
14AalesundAalesund2440:5324
15Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK2425:4920
16StartStart2426:5419
Champions LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Molde vs Fredrikstad forecast

The forecasts for this Eliteserien match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Molde and Fredrikstad in the Eliteserien table

In the Eliteserien table, Molde are 3rd and Fredrikstad 11th, 14 points apart. League goal record so far: Molde 57-36, Fredrikstad 29-41. The full standings are on the Eliteserien Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Molde have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.