Moldova vs Kazakhstan Prediction

Moldova
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Kazakhstan
Zimbru, Chisinau·Andrea Colombo 13/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.17
SignalHIGHModel37%SurpriseHighGap-5.9%
Moldova Rest
37 days
Kazakhstan Rest
38 days

Moldova vs Kazakhstan: the result in context

Moldova beat Kazakhstan 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 13 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 3 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them. Referee Andrea Colombo averages 5.01 cards a game, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
33%2.63
X
33%2.98
2
34%2.91
Double Chance
1X
66%1.40
X2
67%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.00
No
54%1.73
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.86 + 0.81 = 1.67
Over 1.5
66%1.47
Over 2.5
39%2.42
Over 3.5
20%4.89
Under 1.5
34%2.57
Under 2.5
61%1.53
Under 3.5
80%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.9 + 5 = 8.9
Over 8.5
53%1.71
Over 9.5
40%2.09
Over 10.5
29%2.78
Under 8.5
47%2.04
Under 9.5
60%1.64
Under 10.5
71%1.36
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.2 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%-
Over 4.5
39%1.90
Under 3.5
41%-
Under 4.5
61%1.85

Match Events

39'Petru popescu
45'Nauryzbek Zhagorov INYan Vorogovskiy out
51'Islam ChesnokovAssist: Ramazan Orazov
58'Vladimir Fratea INNikita Motpan out
58'Nicky Clescenco INAlexandru Bețivu out
65'Ioan-Calin Revenco INDanila Forov out
66'Vadim Rață INVictor·Bogaciuc out
69'Ramazan Orazov INIslambek Kuat out
69'Zhasulan Amir INGalymzhan Kenzhebek out
73'Iurie IovuFoul
77'Petru popescuAssist: Nikita Motpan
78'Dinmukhamed Karaman INAybol Abiken out
78'Islam Chesnokov INAybar Zhaksylykov out
83'Vladyslav Baboglo INMihail Stefan out
90+3'Petru popescuFoul

Lineups

Moldova
5-3-2Coach: L. Popescu
Kazakhstan
5-3-2Coach: J. van 't Schip
Avg rating6.76
Avg rating6.29
D. Celeadnic6.912D. Celeadnic
I. Revenco5.921I. Revenco
V. Baboglo6.84V. Baboglo
I. Iovu6.618I. Iovu
M. Gherasimencov7.16M. Gherasimencov
O. Reabciuk6.02O. Reabciuk
Vladimir Fratea6.710V. Fratea
V. Raţă6.522V. Raţă
S. Perciun7.19S. Perciun
N. Cleșcenco7.220N. Cleșcenco
Petru Popescu9.115P. Popescu
S. Pokatilov6.11S. Pokatilov
A. Mrynskiy5.913A. Mrynskiy
A. Kassym6.06A. Kassym
T. Erlanov6.723T. Erlanov
N. Alip6.23N. Alip
N. Zhagorov6.514N. Zhagorov
R. Orazov6.620R. Orazov
D. Karaman5.818D. Karaman
Z. Amir6.215Z. Amir
M. Samorodov6.010M. Samorodov
I. Chesnokov7.717I. Chesnokov

Moldova Substitutes

8V. Bogaciuc66'for Vadim Rață6.4
13A. Betivu58'for Nicky Clescenco6.4
17O. David
19D. Dumbrăvanu
16D. Forov65'for Ioan-Calin Revenco6.8
23A. Kozhukhar
14D. Marandici
7N. Moțpan58'for Vladimir Fratea6.7
5S. Negru
11V. Stînă
1E. Tîmbur
3M. Ștefan83'for Vladyslav Baboglo6.3

Kazakhstan Substitutes

12Bekkhan Shayzada
2A. Zhumakhanov
11Y. Vorogovskiy45'for Nauryzbek Zhagorov5.7
22E. Tapalov
4A. Ashirbek
5I. Kuat69'for Ramazan Orazov6.1
7G. Kenzhebek69'for Zhasulan Amir6.3
21A. Tuyakbayev
19A. Zhaksylykov78'for Islam Chesnokov6.4
8Aybol Abiken78'for Dinmukhamed Karaman6.3
9B. Islamkhan
16A. Zarutskiy

Match Stats

MoldovaKazakhstan
56%Ball Possession44%
2Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards0
14Total Shots11
5Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box5
5Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots3
8Fouls19
2Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves3
488Total Passes390
406Passes Accurate299
19Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

MoldovaMoldova
KazakhstanKazakhstan
1312Elo Rating 1372
0.79Attack 1.27
0.60Defense 1.31
23%Hit Rate 0%
14.4Shots per Game 14.3
4.3Shots on Target 3.1
5.4Corners per Game 5.6
1.1Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

MoldovaMoldova
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
KazakhstanKazakhstan
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

MoldovaMoldova2Wins · 67%
Draws00%
KazakhstanKazakhstan1Wins · 33%
2.3Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League02/10/2026
KazakhstanMoldova
12
UEFA Nations League29/03/2022
KazakhstanMoldova
5041
UEFA Nations League24/03/2022
MoldovaKazakhstan
12

Recent Form

MoldovaMoldova
1W4D5L
06/10/2026
MoldovaSlovakia
04
L
02/10/2026
KazakhstanMoldova
12
W
29/09/2026
MoldovaFaroe Islands
11
D
26/09/2026
SlovakiaMoldova
20
L
09/06/2026
ArmeniaMoldova
11
D
05/06/2026
MoldovaBulgaria
22
D
16/11/2025
IsraelMoldova
41
L
13/11/2025
MoldovaItaly
02
L
14/10/2025
EstoniaMoldova
11
D
09/09/2025
NorwayMoldova
111
L
KazakhstanKazakhstan
1W5D4L
06/10/2026
KazakhstanFaroe Islands
22
D
02/10/2026
KazakhstanMoldova
12
L
29/09/2026
SlovakiaKazakhstan
21
L
26/09/2026
Faroe IslandsKazakhstan
11
D
09/06/2026
HungaryKazakhstan
31
L
06/06/2026
ArmeniaKazakhstan
11
D
15/11/2025
KazakhstanBelgium
11
D
13/10/2025
FYR MacedoniaKazakhstan
11
D
10/10/2025
KazakhstanLiechtenstein
40
W
07/09/2025
BelgiumKazakhstan
60
L

Referee Profile

Andrea Colombo142 matches

5.01Cards per match
4.75Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
27.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Andrea Colombo5.01
Other referees4.51

5.01 cards a match, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.51).

Cards come from 119 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SlovakiaSlovakia43109:2+710WDWW
2MoldovaMoldova52125:9-47WLWDL
3Faroe IslandsFaroe Islands40405:504DDDD
4KazakhstanKazakhstan50236:9-32LDLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1SlovakiaSlovakia49:210
2MoldovaMoldova55:97
3Faroe IslandsFaroe Islands45:54
4KazakhstanKazakhstan56:92
Promotion

About the Moldova vs Kazakhstan forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Moldova and Kazakhstan in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Moldova are 2nd in the UEFA Nations League, 5 points ahead of Kazakhstan in 4th. League goal record so far: Moldova 5-9, Kazakhstan 6-9. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.