England vs Croatia Prediction

England
-
12/11/2026
20:45
Croatia
Wembley Stadium, London·Morten Krogh
EnglandEngland
12/11/202620:45
CroatiaCroatia

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
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Value Analysis
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England Rest
37 days
Croatia Rest
37 days

England vs Croatia: what the numbers say

On recent form, England look the stronger side: 4 wins from their last five, against 1 for Croatia. They meet in the UEFA Nations League on 12 Nov 2026.

England have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 3.2 goals a game. England tend to win more corners, 5.7 a game to 3.1 for Croatia.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
1.25
X
6.50
2
11.86
Double Chance
1X
1.05
X2
4.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
1.85
No
1.86
Goals
Over 1.5
1.10
Over 2.5
1.42
Over 3.5
2.10
Under 1.5
5.99
Under 2.5
2.81
Under 3.5
1.75
Corners
Over 8.5
1.50
Over 9.5
1.88
Over 10.5
2.40
Under 8.5
2.40
Under 9.5
1.84
Under 10.5
1.50
Cards
Over 3.5
2.20
Over 4.5
3.30
Under 3.5
1.62
Under 4.5
1.31
Predictions for this match are lockedA free account opens the match result market. Pro opens every goal market.

Team Comparison

EnglandEngland
CroatiaCroatia
1902Elo Rating 1731
3.98Attack 0.94
1.94Defense 0.00
83%Hit Rate 17%
18.1Shots per Game 10.9
6.8Shots on Target 3.6
5.7Corners per Game 3.1
1.1Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+172 Elo
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

EnglandEngland
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (2.4 vs 1.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CroatiaCroatia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

EnglandEngland4Wins · 67%
Draws233%
CroatiaCroatia0Wins · 0%
3.2Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
50%3+ goals3 of 6

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League03/10/2026
CroatiaEngland
07
World Cup17/06/2026
EnglandCroatia
42
Euro Championship13/06/2021
EnglandCroatia
10
UEFA Nations League18/11/2018
EnglandCroatia
21
UEFA Nations League12/10/2018
CroatiaEngland
00
World Cup11/07/2018
CroatiaEngland
2111

Referee Profile

Morten Krogh163 matches

4.16Cards per match
3.96Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Morten Krogh4.16
Other referees4.02

4.16 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.02).

Cards come from 129 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SpainSpain440012:5+712WWWW
2EnglandEngland430114:3+119WWWL
3CroatiaCroatia41034:14-103LLLW
4CzechiaCzechia40042:10-80LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1SpainSpain412:512
2EnglandEngland414:39
3CroatiaCroatia44:143
4CzechiaCzechia42:100

About the England vs Croatia forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

England and Croatia in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: England are 2nd in the UEFA Nations League, 6 points ahead of Croatia in 3rd. League goal record so far: England 14-3, Croatia 4-14. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

England have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.