Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova Prediction

Nautico Recife
0-2
Finished
HT 0-2
Vila Nova
Estadio dos Aflitos, Recife·Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel41%SurpriseHighGap-2.8%
Nautico Recife Rest
2 days
Vila Nova Rest
3 days

Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova: the result in context

Vila Nova beat Nautico Recife 2-0 in the Serie B on 11 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Vila Nova had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Nautico Recife.

Vila Nova have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. Nautico Recife tend to win more corners, 6.6 a game to 4.4 for Vila Nova.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
32%2.75
X
29%3.04
2
39%2.58
Double Chance
1X
61%1.44
X2
68%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.82
No
49%1.87
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.19 + 1.03 = 2.22
Over 1.5
68%1.33
Over 2.5
44%2.12
Over 3.5
23%3.75
Under 1.5
32%3.00
Under 2.5
56%1.67
Under 3.5
77%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.9 = 10.1
Over 8.5
69%1.26
Over 9.5
57%1.50
Over 10.5
46%1.84
Under 8.5
31%3.20
Under 9.5
43%2.35
Under 10.5
54%1.89
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.4 = 4.6
Over 3.5
68%-
Over 4.5
49%-
Under 3.5
32%-
Under 4.5
51%-

Match Events

22'Everton Galdino
37'João Pedro VieiraFoul
38'ViniciusFoul
43'Janderson
45'Samuel INLuiz Felipe out
45'Eduardo Dos Santos INHigor Meritão out
54'Igor FernandesFoul
57'Gustavo Henrique INRyan Santos out
57'Kauan Almeida da Costa INVictor Andrade out
60'Higor MeritãoFoul
66'Luan Sales INReginaldo out
69'Douglas MendesFoul
70'Douglas Mendes INTiago Pagnussat out
70'João Pedro Vieira INWillian Maranhão out
72'Willian MaranhãoFoul
75'Paulo Sérgio INLuiz Cláudio out
80'Everton Galdino INEmerson out
90+1'Marquinhos Gabriel INNathan Camargo out

Lineups

Nautico Recife
4-4-2Coach: Bruno Pivetti
Vila Nova
4-2-3-1Coach: Guto Ferreira
Avg rating6.40
Avg rating6.67
Muriel6.51Muriel
Arnaldo6.82Arnaldo
Léo Índio6.115L. Índio
Gustavo Henrique6.246G. Henrique
Igor Fernandes6.023I. Fernandes
Vinícius6.47Vinícius
Wenderson6.68Wenderson
Samuel6.041Samuel
Paulo Sérgio6.29P. Sérgio
Kaua Almeida da Costa5.919K. Almeida da Costa
Jean Carlos6.610J. Carlos
Helton Leite6.61H. Leite
Hayner6.222Hayner
Douglas Mendes6.34D. Mendes
Jonathan Costa6.723J. Costa
Willian Formiga6.513W. Formiga
João Vieira6.85J. Vieira
Dudu6.715Dudu
Everton Galdino7.917E. Galdino
Marquinhos Gabriel6.510M. Gabriel
Janderson8.299Janderson
Dellatorre6.149Dellatorre

Nautico Recife Substitutes

5Auremir
27Luiz Felipe45'for Samuel6.7
11Victor Andrade57'for Kauan Almeida da Costa7.2
16Luiz Cláudio75'for Paulo Sérgio6.5
34Wanderson
60Luiz Paulo
72Derek
55G. Guruceaga
93Reginaldo Lopes66'for Luan Sales6.4
22P. Núñez
6Ryan57'for Gustavo Henrique6.4
13Gabriel Severino de Sousa

Vila Nova Substitutes

16Igor Cariús
18Enzo
20Nathan Camargo90+1'for Marquinhos Gabriel
9Lincoln
8Willian Maranhão70'for João Pedro Vieira72'6.4
29Dalberson
14Anderson
31Dodô
70Emerson Urso80'for Everton Galdino6.4
21Higor Meritão45'for Eduardo Dos Santos60'6.2
3Tiago Pagnussat70'for Douglas Mendes6.6
11Ryan Lima

Match Stats

Nautico RecifeVila Nova
58%Ball Possession42%
7Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards4
16Total Shots12
3Shots on Goal4
9Shots off Goal5
8Shots Inside Box6
8Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots3
18Fouls16
4Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves3
475Total Passes359
394Passes Accurate273
83%Pass Accuracy76%

Team Comparison

Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
Vila NovaVila Nova
1553Elo Rating 1661
0.59Attack 1.53
1.85Defense 1.73
14%Hit Rate 34%
14.2Shots per Game 11.2
3.0Shots on Target 4.2
6.6Corners per Game 4.4
1.7Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Vila NovaVila Nova
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

Nautico RecifeNautico Recife2Wins · 33%
Draws00%
Vila NovaVila Nova4Wins · 67%
3.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
50%3+ goals3 of 6

Previous meetings

Serie B21/06/2026
Vila NovaNautico Recife
43
Copa Do Brasil09/03/2023
Nautico RecifeVila Nova
21
Serie B20/08/2022
Nautico RecifeVila Nova
12
Serie B07/05/2022
Vila NovaNautico Recife
20
Serie B11/09/2021
Vila NovaNautico Recife
10
Serie B16/06/2021
Nautico RecifeVila Nova
20

Recent Form

Vila NovaVila Nova
6W3D1L
08/10/2026
Vila NovaCuiaba
00
D
03/10/2026
Botafogo SPVila Nova
01
W
26/09/2026
Vila NovaLondrina
20
W
19/09/2026
Vila NovaAmerica Mineiro
10
W
15/09/2026
AvaiVila Nova
11
D
11/09/2026
Vila NovaGoias
20
W
05/09/2026
Athletic ClubVila Nova
50
L
30/08/2026
Vila NovaCeara
20
W
23/08/2026
Operario-PRVila Nova
00
D
20/08/2026
Vila NovaPonte Preta
60
W
5.19Cards per match
4.94Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
27.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho5.19
Other referees5.08

5.19 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.08).

Cards come from 31 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino351810762:30+3264WDWWW
2Vila NovaVila Nova35188950:36+1462LDWDW
3JuventudeJuventude341710741:23+1861DDWWW
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC341612641:29+1260WDWDD
5CriciumaCriciuma351781036:30+659LWWLW
6Sport RecifeSport Recife351412947:38+954WLDWW
7Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense351412942:33+954LDDLW
8CRBCRB341571251:48+352LDWLW
9Operario-PROperario-PR351491245:46-151WLLLL
10GoiasGoias341471334:40-649DWWLL
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3513101249:39+1049WLDLW
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP351381440:38+247WWWWL
13CuiabaCuiaba341114932:27+547LLDWL
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3510141140:40044LDDLL
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3411101339:42-343DLLDW
16CearaCeara3411101337:42-543DLWWD
17AvaiAvai351071833:45-1237LDWWL
18LondrinaLondrina34881843:49-632WDLLL
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro34552422:54-3220WLLLL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta34352619:74-5514DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3562:3064
2Vila NovaVila Nova3550:3662
3JuventudeJuventude3441:2361
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3441:2960
5CriciumaCriciuma3536:3059
6Sport RecifeSport Recife3547:3854
7Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3542:3354
8CRBCRB3451:4852
9Operario-PROperario-PR3545:4651
10GoiasGoias3434:4049
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3549:3949
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3540:3847
13CuiabaCuiaba3432:2747
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3540:4044
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3439:4243
16CearaCeara3437:4243
17AvaiAvai3533:4537
18LondrinaLondrina3443:4932
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3422:5420
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3419:7414
PromotionRelegation

About the Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Nautico Recife and Vila Nova in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Vila Nova are 2nd and Nautico Recife 15th, 19 points apart. League goal record so far: Nautico Recife 39-42, Vila Nova 50-36. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.