New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Prediction

Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison·Marcos De Oliveira 18/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseMediumGap+3.1%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalHIGHModel77%SurpriseMediumGap+9.3%
New York Red Bulls Rest
3 days
Toronto FC Rest
3 days

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC: result, form and history

Toronto FC beat New York Red Bulls 2-0 in the Major League Soccer on 18 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: New York Red Bulls had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Toronto FC.

New York Red Bulls have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.7 goals a game. Referee Marcos De Oliveira averages 3.83 cards a game, 0.56 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
55%1.68
X
22%4.20
2
23%3.90
Double Chance
1X
77%1.22
X2
45%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
72%1.36
No
28%2.88
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.95 + 1.5 = 3.45
Over 1.5
88%1.08
Over 2.5
74%1.33
Over 3.5
51%1.87
Under 1.5
12%7.50
Under 2.5
26%3.25
Under 3.5
49%1.85
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4.1 = 10.2
Over 8.5
67%1.31
Over 9.5
55%1.55
Over 10.5
44%1.94
Under 8.5
33%3.06
Under 9.5
45%2.26
Under 10.5
56%1.79
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.3 = 4.7
Over 3.5
69%1.95
Over 4.5
50%2.55
Under 3.5
31%1.80
Under 4.5
50%1.51

Match Events

3'Justin CheOG
28'Kobe Franklin INJackson Gilman out
45'Adri Mehmeti INEmil Forsberg out
45'Cade Cowell INEric Maxim Choupo-Moting out
52'Zane MonlouisFoul
60'Cameron Harper INJorge Ruvalcaba out
60'Dylan Nealis INJahkeele Marshall-Rutty out
67'Lewis MorganFoul
68'Theo Corbeanu INDerrick Etienne Jr. out
68'Djordje Mihailovic INDániel Sallói out
71'Justin Che INPedro Castro out
82'Dániel SallóiAssist: Jonathan Osorio
86'Lewis Morgan INAlonso out
86'Josh Sargent INRichard Chukwu out
87'Derrick Etienne Jr.Time wasting

Lineups

New York Red Bulls
4-3-3Coach: Michael Bradley
Toronto FC
4-4-2Coach: R. Fraser
Avg rating6.27
Avg rating6.87
E. Horvath6.834E. Horvath
D. Nealis6.312D. Nealis
J. Che5.62J. Che
J. Bazán6.914J. Bazán
D. Padelford5.959D. Padelford
R. Donkor6.648R. Donkor
A. Mehmeti6.215A. Mehmeti
M. Sofo6.237M. Sofo
C. Harper5.917C. Harper
J. Hall6.416J. Hall
C. Cowell6.57C. Cowell
L. Gavran7.11L. Gavran
K. Franklin7.019K. Franklin
Z. Monlouis6.712Z. Monlouis
N. Gomis7.115N. Gomis
Matheus Pereira7.23M. Pereira
T. Corbeanu6.57T. Corbeanu
J. Osorio7.521J. Osorio
N. Dorsch6.96N. Dorsch
D. Mihailović6.210D. Mihailović
J. Sargent6.49J. Sargent
L. Morgan6.690L. Morgan

New York Red Bulls Substitutes

11J. Ruvalcaba60'for Cameron Harper6.7
13E. Choupo-Moting45'for Cade Cowell6.5
10E. Forsberg45'for Adri Mehmeti6.1
60S. Kone
3J. Marshall-Rutty60'for Dylan Nealis5.8
77J. McCarthy
88Pedro Castro71'replaced by Justin Che
26T. Parker
56M. Dos Santos

Toronto FC Substitutes

23W. Yarbrough
27A. Piedrahita
38J. Gilman28'for Kobe Franklin7.2
11D. Etienne68'for Theo Corbeanu87'6.4
96R. Chukwu86'for Josh Sargent7.0
17Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
20D. Sallói68'for Djordje Mihailovic82'7.3
14Alonso Coello86'for Lewis Morgan6.8
44R. Edwards

Match Stats

New York Red BullsToronto FC
68%Ball Possession32%
7Corner Kicks1
0Yellow Cards3
15Total Shots6
4Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal1
11Shots Inside Box2
4Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots1
14Fouls15
3Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves3
518Total Passes249
448Passes Accurate177
15Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
Toronto FCToronto FC
1501Elo Rating 1569
1.15Attack 1.76
1.31Defense 1.36
34%Hit Rate 46%
18.1Shots per Game 11.2
5.8Shots on Target 4.4
6.8Corners per Game 4.0
1.7Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.45 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls
  • No tendency data available
Toronto FCToronto FC
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls6Wins · 60%
Draws440%
Toronto FCToronto FC0Wins · 0%
2.7Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer14/03/2026
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
11
Major League Soccer26/06/2025
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
11
Major League Soccer23/03/2025
New York Red BullsToronto FC
21
Major League Soccer03/10/2024
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
14
Major League Soccer23/06/2024
New York Red BullsToronto FC
30
Major League Soccer08/10/2023
New York Red BullsToronto FC
30
Major League Soccer18/05/2023
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
00
Major League Soccer19/06/2022
New York Red BullsToronto FC
20
Major League Soccer05/03/2022
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
14
Major League Soccer22/07/2021
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
11

Referee Profile

Marcos De Oliveira113 matches

3.83Cards per match
3.76Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
25.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Marcos De Oliveira3.83
Other referees4.39

3.83 cards a match, 0.56 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.39).

Cards come from 108 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC30207364:23+4167DWWWW
2Inter MiamiInter Miami301510573:51+2255WWWLD
3New England RevolutionNew England Revolution301641049:41+852WWLLW
4Chicago FireChicago Fire301461052:44+848LLWWW
5CharlotteCharlotte30138953:45+847DLWLW
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union301371061:48+1346DWWWW
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC301251358:70-1241WDWLL
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati301091162:71-939WLLWL
9New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls301061439:56-1736LLWLW
10Toronto FCToronto FC308121046:55-936WDWLL
11Columbus CrewColumbus Crew301051546:47-135WWLWW
12New York City FCNew York City FC308101243:41+234DLLDL
13DC UnitedDC United307121138:53-1533LLWLD
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC30861637:51-1430LWLDW
15CF MontrealCF Montreal30671736:60-2425DLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC3064:2367
2Inter MiamiInter Miami3073:5155
3New England RevolutionNew England Revolution3049:4152
4Chicago FireChicago Fire3052:4448
5CharlotteCharlotte3053:4547
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union3061:4846
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC3058:7041
8FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati3062:7139
9New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls3039:5636
10Toronto FCToronto FC3046:5536
11Columbus CrewColumbus Crew3046:4735
12New York City FCNew York City FC3043:4134
13DC UnitedDC United3038:5333
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC3037:5130
15CF MontrealCF Montreal3036:6025
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About the New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer table

In the Major League Soccer table, New York Red Bulls (9th) and Toronto FC (10th) are level on 36 points. League goal record so far: New York Red Bulls 39-56, Toronto FC 46-55. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.