Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Prediction

Rayo Vallecano
0-3
Finished
HT 0-2
Elche
Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid·Miguel Sesma Espinosa 24/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.20
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseMediumGap-4.3%
Rayo Vallecano Rest
4 days
Elche Rest
6 days

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: result, form and history

Elche beat Rayo Vallecano 3-0 in the La Liga on 24 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 7 previous meetings averaged 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them. Rayo Vallecano tend to win more corners, 5.8 a game to 3.6 for Elche.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%1.75
X
24%3.87
2
22%4.60
Double Chance
1X
78%1.20
X2
46%2.08
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.73
No
45%2.02
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.72 + 1.13 = 2.85
Over 1.5
77%1.27
Over 2.5
55%1.84
Over 3.5
33%3.05
Under 1.5
23%3.75
Under 2.5
45%2.00
Under 3.5
67%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 3.7 = 9.9
Over 8.5
63%1.42
Over 9.5
51%1.74
Over 10.5
41%2.19
Under 8.5
37%2.62
Under 9.5
49%2.01
Under 10.5
59%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.8 = 5.2
Over 3.5
77%1.33
Over 4.5
60%1.78
Under 3.5
23%3.15
Under 4.5
40%2.00

Match Events

10'Javier Morcillo RodrigálvarezFoul
23'Federico Redondo Solari(Penalty)
30'Gonzalo VillarFoul
30'Federico Redondo SolariFoul
33'Penalty confirmedThomas Lemar
35'Pathé CissFoul
36'Fernando Niño Rodríguez(Penalty)
39'Pathé Ciss(Penalty missed)
45'Gonzalo Villar INFacundo Buonanotte out
45'Jorge De Frutos INGeorgiy Tsitaishvili out
45'Sergio Camello INAlexandre Zurawski out
54'Adrià PedrosaFoul
60'Adrià Pedrosa INJozhua Vertrouwd out
60'Pedro Díaz INIsi Palazón out
61'Fernando Niño Rodríguez INAbiel Alessio Osorio out
68'Germán ValeraAssist: Facundo Buonanotte
72'Thomas Lemar INMartim Neto out
72'Lucas Cepeda INTete Morente out
76'Ivan Balliu INGnangoro Bouare out
81'Álvaro GarcíaDissent
83'Federico Redondo Solari INPedro Bigas out

Lineups

Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3Coach: Beñat San José
Elche
4-3-3Coach: M. Anselmi
Avg rating6.25
Avg rating7.16
E. Audero6.725E. Audero
I. Balliu6.420I. Balliu
F. Lejeune6.524F. Lejeune
Mujaid Sadick6.815M. Sadick
Adrià Pedrosa6.017A. Pedrosa
Pedro Díaz5.74P. Díaz
P. Ciss6.36P. Ciss
Unai López7.28U. López
Jorge de Frutos5.819J. de Frutos
Sergio Camello6.110S. Camello
Álvaro García5.418Á. García
M. Dituro7.91M. Dituro
Buba Sangaré7.62B. Sangaré
F. Redondo7.35F. Redondo
Víctor Chust7.223V. Chust
R. Revivo7.73R. Revivo
Gonzalo Villar6.712G. Villar
J. Morcillo7.447J. Morcillo
T. Lemar7.218T. Lemar
L. Cepeda6.821L. Cepeda
Fer Niño6.914F. Niño
Germán Valera7.911G. Valera

Rayo Vallecano Substitutes

37Rayane Belid
34Iván Alonso Martín
36G. Bouare76'for Ivan Balliu6.7
22Pelayo Fernández
3M. Kumbulla
30Adrián Molina
7Isi Palazón60'for Pedro Díaz5.8
21Fran Pérez
14G. Tsitaishvili45'for Jorge De Frutos6.4
23Óscar Valentín
33J. Vertrouwd60'for Adrià Pedrosa6.0
9Alemão45'for Sergio Camello6.2

Elche Substitutes

6Bigas83'for Federico Redondo Solari7.0
10F. Buonanotte45'for Gonzalo Villar7.1
16Martim Neto72'for Thomas Lemar6.9
19G. Diangana
17Josan
13Alejandro Iturbe
15K. Lomónaco
20Tete Morente72'for Lucas Cepeda6.7
24A. Osorio61'for Fernando Niño Rodríguez6.5
9E. Ponce
22Rubén Sánchez
26Matia Barzic Gutiérrez

Match Stats

Rayo VallecanoElche
57%Ball Possession43%
3Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards3
18Total Shots16
5Shots on Goal9
10Shots off Goal3
8Shots Inside Box8
10Shots Outside Box8
3Blocked Shots4
15Fouls11
4Offsides2
6Goalkeeper Saves4
492Total Passes388
436Passes Accurate319
9Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
ElcheElche
1793Elo Rating 1721
1.48Attack 1.06
1.36Defense 2.17
34%Hit Rate 19%
18.4Shots per Game 8.9
4.8Shots on Target 2.5
5.8Corners per Game 3.6
3.1Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals

Game State Tendencies

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
ElcheElche
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano4Wins · 57%
Draws00%
ElcheElche3Wins · 43%
2.9Avg Goals
43%Both teams scored3 of 7
71%3+ goals5 of 7

Previous meetings

La Liga03/04/2026
Rayo VallecanoElche
10
La Liga21/12/2025
ElcheRayo Vallecano
40
La Liga29/04/2023
ElcheRayo Vallecano
40
La Liga03/10/2022
Rayo VallecanoElche
21
La Liga18/02/2022
ElcheRayo Vallecano
21
La Liga17/10/2021
Rayo VallecanoElche
21
Copa del Rey16/01/2021
Rayo VallecanoElche
20

Referee Profile

Miguel Sesma Espinosa112 matches

4.52Cards per match
4.33Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
26.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Miguel Sesma Espinosa4.52
Other referees4.87

4.52 cards a match, 0.35 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.87).

Cards come from 67 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona990039:9+3027WWWWW
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid971119:8+1122WWWWW
3Real MadridReal Madrid970223:9+1421WWLWW
4Real BetisReal Betis961216:14+219LWDWW
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad951317:17016WWWLW
6SevillaSevilla942314:16-214LDLWW
7AlavesAlaves1033414:11+312DLLDL
8Celta VigoCelta Vigo925210:7+311WDWDD
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna925213:12+111DLDLD
10OsasunaOsasuna932410:18-811WLDLL
11LevanteLevante924315:17-210WDDLL
12VillarrealVillarreal923413:1309DLWWL
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club82338:9-19DDDDW
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano823312:17-59DDWLW
15GetafeGetafe92345:11-69DLWLD
16EspanyolEspanyol922511:12-18LDLLW
17Racing SantanderRacing Santander922513:25-128LDLLW
18ElcheElche914411:17-67DDWLD
19ValenciaValencia91356:15-96DDLWL
20MalagaMalaga100557:19-125DLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona939:927
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid919:822
3Real MadridReal Madrid923:921
4Real BetisReal Betis916:1419
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad917:1716
6SevillaSevilla914:1614
7AlavesAlaves1014:1112
8Celta VigoCelta Vigo910:711
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna913:1211
10OsasunaOsasuna910:1811
11LevanteLevante915:1710
12VillarrealVillarreal913:139
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club88:99
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano812:179
15GetafeGetafe95:119
16EspanyolEspanyol911:128
17Racing SantanderRacing Santander913:258
18ElcheElche911:177
19ValenciaValencia96:156
20MalagaMalaga107:195
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Rayo Vallecano vs Elche forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Rayo Vallecano and Elche in the La Liga table

In the La Liga table, Rayo Vallecano are 14th and Elche 18th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Rayo Vallecano 12-17, Elche 11-17. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.