Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction

Lumen Field, Seattle·Jair Marrufo 02/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.31
SignalSOLIDModel58%SurpriseMediumGap-9.9%
Value Analysis
55%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
2.02
SignalNEUTRALModel55%SurpriseMediumGap+9.7%
Seattle Sounders Rest
5 days
Sporting Kansas City Rest
5 days

Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City: result, form and history

Seattle Sounders beat Sporting Kansas City 2-1 in the Major League Soccer on 2 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 10 previous meetings averaged 3.4 goals, and both sides scored in 7 of them. Referee Jair Marrufo averages 3.02 cards a game, 1.20 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.54
X
21%4.55
2
19%5.00
Double Chance
1X
81%1.14
X2
40%2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%1.40
No
36%2.77
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.11 + 1.18 = 3.29
Over 1.5
86%1.07
Over 2.5
68%1.31
Over 3.5
48%1.84
Under 1.5
14%7.45
Under 2.5
32%3.30
Under 3.5
52%1.91
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 4.5 = 10.4
Over 8.5
65%1.30
Over 9.5
54%1.56
Over 10.5
44%1.93
Under 8.5
35%3.15
Under 9.5
46%2.29
Under 10.5
56%1.80
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.3 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%2.18
Over 4.5
40%3.21
Under 3.5
41%1.65
Under 4.5
60%1.31

Match Events

44'André LuizAssist: Stephen Afrifa
45'Daniel Musovski INSebastian Gomez out
51'Sebastian GomezAssist: Jordan Morris
61'Nouhou ToloFoul
63'stuar hawkins INKalani Kossa-Rienzi out
63'Paul Arriola INCaden Clark out
76'Calvin Harris INZorhan Bassong out
76'André Luiz INShapi Suleymanov out
76'Stephen Afrifa INSeymour Garfield-Reid out
79'Lasse Berg Johnsen INJacob Bartlett out
89'Peter Kingston INMark Bronnik out
90'Cristian Roldán
90+3'Albert Rusnák INYeimar Gomez out

Lineups

Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1Coach: B. Schmetzer
Sporting Kansas City
4-4-2Coach: R. Wicky
Avg rating6.98
Avg rating6.70
A. Thomas8.826A. Thomas
A. Roldan6.916A. Roldan
S. Hawkins6.639S. Hawkins
J. Ragen7.325J. Ragen
N. Tolo6.05N. Tolo
P. Kingston6.745P. Kingston
C. Roldan8.27C. Roldan
J. Morris7.713J. Morris
A. Rusnák7.211A. Rusnák
P. Arriola6.017P. Arriola
D. Musovski6.419D. Musovski
S. Cleveland6.930S. Cleveland
J. Reynolds7.013J. Reynolds
Jansen Miller6.815J. Miller
Wyatt Meyer6.528W. Meyer
E. Karić5.918E. Karić
André Luiz8.211A. Luiz
K. Agyabeng7.220K. Agyabeng
L. Johnsen6.54L. Johnsen
C. Harris6.114C. Harris
T. Calheira6.719T. Calheira
S. Afrifa7.317S. Afrifa

Seattle Sounders Substitutes

8C. Clark63'for Paul Arriola6.4
24S. Frei
28Y. Gómez90+3'for Albert Rusnák
90S. Gomez45'for Daniel Musovski51'7.8
85K. Kossa-Rienzi63'for stuar hawkins6.2
4R. Sailor
35Antino Lopez
81M. Bronnik89'for Peter Kingston6.5

Sporting Kansas City Substitutes

1J. Pulskamp
99J. Reid
29S. Reid76'for Stephen Afrifa6.3
93M. Suleymanov76'for André Luiz6.6
2I. James
22Z. Bassong76'for Calvin Harris6.4
23E. Bartlow
16J. Bartlett79'for Lasse Berg Johnsen6.3
42Alexander Cunningham

Match Stats

Seattle SoundersSporting Kansas City
58%Ball Possession42%
11Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards1
21Total Shots22
7Shots on Goal11
7Shots off Goal8
14Shots Inside Box11
7Shots Outside Box11
7Blocked Shots3
7Fouls4
1Offsides2
9Goalkeeper Saves5
555Total Passes388
487Passes Accurate333
3Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
1619Elo Rating 1438
1.61Attack 1.30
2.19Defense 0.36
50%Hit Rate 14%
15.8Shots per Game 11.6
6.2Shots on Target 4.4
7.4Corners per Game 5.4
1.1Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+181 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.29 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.5 in first half)
Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders5Wins · 50%
Draws110%
Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City4Wins · 40%
3.4Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Major League Soccer02/05/2026
Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders
11
Major League Soccer25/08/2025
Seattle SoundersSporting Kansas City
52
Major League Soccer13/07/2025
Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders
23
Major League Soccer16/09/2024
Seattle SoundersSporting Kansas City
20
Major League Soccer09/06/2024
Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders
21
Major League Soccer07/05/2023
Seattle SoundersSporting Kansas City
12
Major League Soccer26/03/2023
Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders
14
Major League Soccer02/10/2022
Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders
10
Major League Soccer25/06/2022
Seattle SoundersSporting Kansas City
30
Major League Soccer23/10/2021
Seattle SoundersSporting Kansas City
12

Referee Profile

Jair Marrufo70 matches

3.02Cards per match
2.91Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
20.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jair Marrufo3.02
Other referees4.22

3.02 cards a match, 1.20 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.22).

Cards come from 64 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps30167763:31+3255WDDLD
2St. Louis CitySt. Louis City30149756:41+1551LDWWW
3FC DallasFC Dallas30149755:47+851DWLWD
4San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes30139852:42+1048DDDWD
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo30138941:39+247DDDLD
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC311210948:33+1546DWDLD
7Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders301191039:37+242DLWWW
8Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3110101143:52-940DWLWW
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids301161341:41039DDDLD
10Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake301061445:48-336WDLWL
11Portland TimbersPortland Timbers30971451:56-534DLDLL
12San DiegoSan Diego308101253:56-334DDLDD
13Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC308101247:55-834WDDLL
14AustinAustin307101338:56-1831LLLDD
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City30642036:75-3922LLDLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps3063:3155
2St. Louis CitySt. Louis City3056:4151
3FC DallasFC Dallas3055:4751
4San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes3052:4248
5Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo3041:3947
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC3148:3346
7Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders3039:3742
8Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy3143:5240
9Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids3041:4139
10Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake3045:4836
11Portland TimbersPortland Timbers3051:5634
12San DiegoSan Diego3053:5634
13Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC3047:5534
14AustinAustin3038:5631
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City3036:7522
Promotion

About the Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City in the Major League Soccer table

In the Major League Soccer table, Seattle Sounders are 7th and Sporting Kansas City 15th, 20 points apart. League goal record so far: Seattle Sounders 39-37, Sporting Kansas City 36-75. The full standings are on the Major League Soccer Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.