Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Prediction

Sparta Rotterdam
3-2
Finished
HT 1-1
Willem II
Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam·Serdar Gozubuyuk 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.17
SignalHIGHModel57%SurpriseMediumGap-7.2%
Sparta Rotterdam Rest
7 days
Willem II Rest
6 days

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: result, form and history

Sparta Rotterdam beat Willem II 3-2 in the Eredivisie on 17 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Sparta Rotterdam have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 7 previous meetings, which averaged 3.3 goals a game. Sparta Rotterdam tend to win more corners, 5.7 a game to 3.4 for Willem II.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%1.57
X
22%4.39
2
20%4.88
Double Chance
1X
80%1.17
X2
42%2.27
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.52
No
40%2.37
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.94 + 1.03 = 2.97
Over 1.5
82%1.11
Over 2.5
62%1.45
Over 3.5
40%2.18
Under 1.5
18%5.50
Under 2.5
38%2.60
Under 3.5
60%1.67
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.6 + 4.5 = 11.1
Over 8.5
75%1.26
Over 9.5
65%1.48
Over 10.5
54%1.82
Under 8.5
25%3.42
Under 9.5
35%2.46
Under 10.5
46%1.92
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 1.8 = 3.2
Over 3.5
40%-
Over 4.5
22%-
Under 3.5
60%-
Under 4.5
78%-

Match Events

17'Tonny Vilhena
39'Jens Toornstra
41'Finn StamFoul
50'Lushendry Martes
57'Milan ZonneveldAssist: Jens Toornstra
59'Rogier MeijerDissent
66'Anass Zarrouk INThomas Verheydt out
66'Tonny Vilhena INMats Lemmens out
68'Uriël van AalstAssist: Vito van Crooy
70'Lushendry MartesArgument
70'Vito van CrooyArgument
74'Jens Toornstra INAlwande Benedict Roaldsøy out
75'Thomas VerheydtFoul
78'Alwande Benedict RoaldsøyFoul
81'Uriël van Aalst INJari Schuurman out
81'Jaden Slory INChido Obi out
83'Cedric Hatenboer INTeo Quintero León out
83'Robin van Cruijsen INMitchell Van Bergen out
85'Milan ZonneveldTime wasting
88'Bas KuipersTime wasting
88'Maxim Dekker INEser Gürbüz out
90+3'Chido ObiFoul

Lineups

Sparta Rotterdam
5-4-1Coach: R. Meijer
Willem II
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Stegeman
Avg rating6.70
Avg rating6.25
M. Brouwer6.01M. Brouwer
L. Martes6.92L. Martes
M. Young6.53M. Young
N. Verschuren6.76N. Verschuren
B. Martins Indi6.64B. Martins Indi
B. Kuipers6.15B. Kuipers
Robin van Cruijsen7.07R. van Cruijsen
J. Toornstra8.18J. Toornstra
Cedric Hatenboer6.410C. Hatenboer
I. Babadi7.011I. Babadi
M. Zonneveld7.99M. Zonneveld
M. Delanghe6.726M. Delanghe
H. ter Avest5.65H. ter Avest
F. Stam6.03F. Stam
M. Dekker6.123M. Dekker
N. Tjoe-A-On6.424N. Tjoe-A-On
Anass Zarrouk5.918A. Zarrouk
T. Vilhena7.252T. Vilhena
J. Slory5.97J. Slory
Uriel van Aalst7.219U. van Aalst
V. van Crooij6.432V. van Crooij
D. Haen6.19D. Haen

Sparta Rotterdam Substitutes

16J. Baas
20F. Bednarek
22Joel Ideho
19Andrej Kostić
30P. Kuiper
14Teo Quintero83'for Cedric Hatenboer6.1
12B. Reith
18A. Roaldsøy74'for Jens Toornstra78'5.8
21C. Terho
17M. van Bergen83'for Robin van Cruijsen6.7
15G. Vianello

Willem II Substitutes

2A. Ciranni
28T. Verheydt66'for Anass Zarrouk75'6.6
22Per van Loon
10J. Schuurman81'for Uriël van Aalst5.8
17O. Martin81'for Jaden Slory90+3'6.1
14Jens Mathijsen
83M. Lemmens66'for Tonny Vilhena5.8
50E. Gürbüz88'for Maxim Dekker6.3
15A. Et-Taïbi
31K. de Leeuw
8K. Boogaard
41Tygo Kotte
44L. Maal

Match Stats

Sparta RotterdamWillem II
49%Ball Possession51%
3Corner Kicks4
4Yellow Cards4
22Total Shots13
8Shots on Goal4
11Shots off Goal6
18Shots Inside Box7
4Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots3
12Fouls12
2Goalkeeper Saves5
384Total Passes396
301Passes Accurate293
12Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
Willem IIWillem II
1601Elo Rating 1535
1.94Attack 1.07
0.05Defense 0.34
27%Hit Rate 0%
16.8Shots per Game 11.5
6.1Shots on Target 3.1
5.7Corners per Game 3.4
2.3Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.96 goals

Game State Tendencies

Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Willem IIWillem II
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam6Wins · 86%
Draws00%
Willem IIWillem II1Wins · 14%
3.3Avg Goals
43%Both teams scored3 of 7
71%3+ goals5 of 7

Previous meetings

KNVB Beker18/12/2025
Willem IISparta Rotterdam
15
Eredivisie02/03/2025
Sparta RotterdamWillem II
40
Eredivisie31/08/2024
Willem IISparta Rotterdam
12
Eredivisie13/02/2022
Sparta RotterdamWillem II
10
Eredivisie06/11/2021
Willem IISparta Rotterdam
03
Eredivisie28/02/2021
Sparta RotterdamWillem II
02
Eredivisie13/12/2020
Willem IISparta Rotterdam
13

Referee Profile

Serdar Gozubuyuk264 matches

3.98Cards per match
3.84Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
23.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Serdar Gozubuyuk3.98
Other referees3.49

3.98 cards a match, 0.49 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.49).

Cards come from 256 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FeyenoordFeyenoord972031:10+2123WWWWW
2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar962120:10+1020DLWDW
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven961227:12+1519LWLWW
4AjaxAjax953127:12+1518WDDWW
5TwenteTwente952217:10+717LDWWW
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard943216:17-115DDWLW
7GroningenGroningen942322:19+314LWWDD
8HeerenveenHeerenveen933315:11+412WLWDL
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles925220:21-111LDDDD
10ExcelsiorExcelsior932416:18-211LLDLD
11UtrechtUtrecht932416:26-1011WWLWD
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen924315:16-110DDDLD
13Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam923416:22-69WDLLD
14CambuurCambuur923413:21-89DWDWD
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle921610:22-127WLLLD
16TelstarTelstar913510:18-86LDLDL
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag913511:20-96WDDLL
18Willem IIWillem II90279:26-172LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FeyenoordFeyenoord931:1023
2AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar920:1020
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven927:1219
4AjaxAjax927:1218
5TwenteTwente917:1017
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard916:1715
7GroningenGroningen922:1914
8HeerenveenHeerenveen915:1112
9GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles920:2111
10ExcelsiorExcelsior916:1811
11UtrechtUtrecht916:2611
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen915:1610
13Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam916:229
14CambuurCambuur913:219
15PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle910:227
16TelstarTelstar910:186
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag911:206
18Willem IIWillem II99:262
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About the Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II in the Eredivisie table

In the Eredivisie table, Sparta Rotterdam are 13th and Willem II 18th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Sparta Rotterdam 16-22, Willem II 9-26. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.