Sporting CP vs Nacional Prediction

Primeira LigaPortugal Portugal · Regular Season - 5
Sporting CP
2-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Nacional
J. Pinheiro 05/09/2026
Sporting CPSporting CP
2-0
Finished
NacionalNacional

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams NOT to Score
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+12.0%
Sporting CP Rest
8 days
Nacional Rest
6 days

Sporting CP vs Nacional: result, form and history

Sporting CP beat Nacional 2-0 in the Primeira Liga on 5 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Sporting CP had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Nacional.

Sporting CP have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 7 previous meetings, which averaged 3.6 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
79%1.20
X
17%6.50
2
4%12.00
Double Chance
1X
96%1.03
X2
21%4.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%1.90
No
63%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.23 + 0.66 = 2.89
Over 1.5
83%1.10
Over 2.5
60%1.40
Over 3.5
35%2.02
Under 1.5
17%5.88
Under 2.5
40%2.73
Under 3.5
65%1.76
Corners
Projected Corners: 7.1 + 2.8 = 9.8
Over 8.5
65%1.43
Over 9.5
54%1.70
Over 10.5
43%2.10
Under 8.5
35%2.57
Under 9.5
46%2.01
Under 10.5
57%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.3 + 2.5 = 3.8
Over 3.5
52%1.38
Over 4.5
33%1.85
Under 3.5
48%2.60
Under 4.5
67%1.85

Match Events

5'Maximiliano AraujoFoul
20'Sergi AltimiraFoul
32'Luis Suárez(Penalty)
45'Léo Santos INDeivison Souza Brito out
48'Markus JensenFoul
49'Flávio GonçalvesAssist: Luis Suárez
62'Pablo Ruan INAllen Obando out
62'Markus Jensen INChiheb Labidi out
67'Geny Catamo INLuís Guilherme out
67'Rodrigo Zalazar INNestory Irankunda out
67'Luis Suárez INFotis Ioannidis out
73'Stavros Gavriel INMatchoi Djaló out
78'Maximiliano Araujo INGeorgios Vagiannidis out
80'Miguel Baeza INDaniel de Melo Araujo Junior out
87'Sergi Altimira INSilas Andersen out

Lineups

Sporting CP
4-2-3-1Coach: Rui Borges
Nacional
3-4-2-1Coach: Pedro Figueiredo
Avg rating6.93
Avg rating6.33
Rui Silva7.11R. Silva
Iván Fresneda6.822I. Fresneda
Z. Debast7.56Z. Debast
Gonçalo Inácio6.925G. Inácio
M. Araújo7.020M. Araújo
Sergi Altimira7.05S. Altimira
I. Doumbia6.777I. Doumbia
Geny Catamo6.710G. Catamo
R. Zalazar6.217R. Zalazar
Flávio Gonçalves8.058F. Gonçalves
L. Suárez7.697L. Suárez
Renato Bellucci6.91R. Bellucci
Léo Santos6.434L. Santos
Francisco Gonçalves6.733F. Gonçalves
Zé Vitor6.238Z. Vitor
Wesley Gasolina6.252W. Gasolina
Matheus Dias6.36M. Dias
Miguel Baeza6.08M. Baeza
W. Kokolo6.021W. Kokolo
S. Gavriel6.111S. Gavriel
M. Jensen5.97M. Jensen
Pablo Ruan6.399P. Ruan

Sporting CP Substitutes

50Rodrigo Dias
28J. Derry
9Rafael Ferreira Nel
7F. Ioannidis67'for Luis Suárez6.4
19N. Irankunda67'for Rodrigo Zalazar6.6
21Pedro Lima
31Luis Guilherme67'for Geny Catamo7.2
30Kaique
72Eduardo Quaresma
4S. Andersen87'for Sergi Altimira6.5
13G. Vagiannidis78'for Maximiliano Araujo6.5
73Eduardo Felicíssimo

Nacional Substitutes

9A. Obando62'for Pablo Ruan6.6
17F. Nava
50Kevyn
15C. Labidi62'for Markus Jensen6.6
31D. Dongmo
20Matchoi Djaló73'for Stavros Gavriel6.5
2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz
10Daniel Júnior80'for Miguel Baeza6.1
88Deivison45'for Léo Santos6.7

Match Stats

Sporting CPNacional
67%Ball Possession33%
12Corner Kicks0
2Yellow Cards1
19Total Shots3
8Shots on Goal2
10Shots off Goal0
10Shots Inside Box0
9Shots Outside Box3
1Blocked Shots1
10Fouls7
1Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves6
660Total Passes318
586Passes Accurate255
89%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

Sporting CPSporting CP
NacionalNacional
1812Elo Rating 1508
1.56Attack 0.56
2.05Defense 1.48
69%Hit Rate 23%
18.8Shots per Game 8.7
5.7Shots on Target 3.0
5.3Corners per Game 4.7
1.7Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+304 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.88 goals
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Sporting CPSporting CP
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
NacionalNacional
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

Sporting CPSporting CP7Wins · 100%
Draws00%
NacionalNacional0Wins · 0%
3.6Avg Goals
57%Both teams scored4 of 7
57%3+ goals4 of 7

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga01/02/2026
Sporting CPNacional
21
Primeira Liga23/08/2025
NacionalSporting CP
14
Primeira Liga25/01/2025
Sporting CPNacional
20
Taça da Liga29/10/2024
Sporting CPNacional
31
Primeira Liga17/08/2024
NacionalSporting CP
16
Primeira Liga01/05/2021
Sporting CPNacional
20
Primeira Liga08/01/2021
NacionalSporting CP
02

Recent Form

Sporting CPSporting CP
8W1D1L
28/08/2026
Rio AveSporting CP
04
W22/08/2026
Sporting CPAlverca
31
W14/08/2026
Sporting CPVitória SC
32
W08/08/2026
EstrelaSporting CP
22
D
31/07/2026
Sporting CPNottingham Forest
41
W
25/07/2026
Sporting CPMonaco
20
W
20/07/2026
Sporting CPStrasbourg
70
W
14/07/2026
Sporting CPCeltic
41
W
24/05/2026
Sporting CPTorreense
1121
L
16/05/2026
Sporting CPGIL Vicente
30
W
NacionalNacional
2W4D4L
30/08/2026
NacionalEstrela
23
L23/08/2026
Vitória SCNacional
10
L16/08/2026
NacionalEstoril
20
W
10/08/2026
Santa ClaraNacional
22
D
23/07/2026
EstrelaNacional
20
L
22/07/2026
NacionalLeganes
00
D
19/07/2026
TondelaNacional
11
D
18/07/2026
NacionalLeixoes
33
D
16/05/2026
NacionalGuimaraes
20
W
11/05/2026
Santa ClaraNacional
20
L

Referee Profile

J. Pinheiro14 matches analysed

4.72Cards per match
4.49Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
25.4Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 63% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto11110027:5+2233WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica1191130:10+2028WWWWL
3Sporting CPSporting CP1173124:11+1324WWLWD
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara1163216:8+821LWLWD
5AroucaArouca1162313:8+520LWWWD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu1162315:13+220LWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente1153310:8+218WDLWW
8SC BragaSC Braga1152413:11+217WWLLL
9MoreirenseMoreirense1142513:18-514LWWLD
10FamalicaoFamalicao1134415:14+113WLWLW
11AlvercaAlverca1133514:15-112DLLWW
12EstrelaEstrela1124517:22-510LLLLL
13NacionalNacional1131711:19-810WLWLL
14Vitória SCVitória SC1123611:12-19LDWLD
15MaritimoMaritimo102269:21-128LLLDL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia112276:20-148DLWLW
17Rio AveRio Ave112189:24-157LLLWL
18EstorilEstoril100285:19-142LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto1127:533
2BenficaBenfica1130:1028
3Sporting CPSporting CP1124:1124
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara1116:821
5AroucaArouca1113:820
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu1115:1320
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente1110:818
8SC BragaSC Braga1113:1117
9MoreirenseMoreirense1113:1814
10FamalicaoFamalicao1115:1413
11AlvercaAlverca1114:1512
12EstrelaEstrela1117:2210
13NacionalNacional1111:1910
14Vitória SCVitória SC1111:129
15MaritimoMaritimo109:218
16Casa PiaCasa Pia116:208
17Rio AveRio Ave119:247
18EstorilEstoril105:192
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Explore more predictions

This match

More Primeira Liga matches

All predictions

About the Sporting CP vs Nacional forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Sporting CP and Nacional in the Primeira Liga table

In the Primeira Liga table, Sporting CP are 3rd and Nacional 13th, 14 points apart. League goal record so far: Sporting CP 24-11, Nacional 11-19. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.