Union La Calera vs D. La Serena Prediction

Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, La Calera·Cristian Garay, Chile 01/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
61%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.67
SignalNEUTRALModel41%SurpriseMediumGap+0.5%
Value Analysis
59%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.85
SignalSOLIDModel39%SurpriseMediumGap+8.7%
Union La Calera Rest
9 days
D. La Serena Rest
8 days

Union La Calera vs D. La Serena: the result in context

D. La Serena beat Union La Calera 1-0 in the Primera División on 31 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 8 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Referee Cristian Garay averages 4.64 cards a game, 0.80 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.20
X
24%3.35
2
38%3.01
Double Chance
1X
62%1.33
X2
62%1.60
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.67
No
37%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.47 + 1.25 = 2.72
Over 1.5
76%1.25
Over 2.5
59%1.85
Over 3.5
34%3.09
Under 1.5
24%3.60
Under 2.5
41%1.92
Under 3.5
66%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.1 = 9.2
Over 8.5
55%1.24
Over 9.5
40%1.41
Over 10.5
29%1.71
Under 8.5
45%3.60
Under 9.5
60%2.56
Under 10.5
71%2.01
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.7 = 5
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
55%1.53
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
45%2.40

Match Events

38'F. ChamorroFoul
43'J. VargasAssist: M. Pinto
46'M. MarinFoul
46'Y. Leiva INC. Villanueva out
46'F. Chamorro INY. Salazar out
61'F. Pozzo INM. Campos out
61'A. Henriquez INL. Alarcon out
67'M. Pinto ING. Escalante out
70'C. VillanuevaFoul
70'V. Lavin INK. Mendez out
80'J. Soto INB. Ferreyra out
83'B. Gutierrez INM. Perez out
84'J. Vargas IND. Rubio out
90+1'G. EscalanteFoul
90+2'F. GutierrezUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+4'C. GutierrezFoul

Lineups

Union La Calera
4-1-4-1Coach: Martin Cicotello
D. La Serena
4-2-3-1Coach: Francisco Bozan
Avg rating6.59
Avg rating6.97
Nicolás Avellaneda6.61N. Avellaneda
Christopher Díaz6.725C. Díaz
Juan Salomoni6.215J. Salomoni
Vicente Lavín6.06V. Lavín
Cristián Gutiérrez6.34C. Gutiérrez
Rodrigo Pérez6.923R. Pérez
Francisco Jose Pozzo6.79F. Jose Pozzo
Yerko Leiva6.98Y. Leiva
Joaquín Soto6.729J. Soto
Bayron Oyarzo6.37B. Oyarzo
Sebastián SáezC6.711S. Sáez
José Tapia7.231J. Tapia
Bruno Gutiérrez7.321B. Gutiérrez
Ian Rasso7.334I. Rasso
Rafael Delgado7.533R. Delgado
Fernando Dinamarca6.926F. Dinamarca
Francis Mac Allister7.34F. Mac Allister
Matías Marín7.223M. Marín
Matías Pinto7.229M. Pinto
Jeisson VargasC7.910J. Vargas
Felipe Chamorro6.314F. Chamorro
Ángelo Henríquez6.29Á. Henríquez

Union La Calera Substitutes

14Carlo Villanueva46'for Y. Leiva70'6.9
12Nelson Espinoza
27Daniel Gutiérrez
10Kevin Méndez70'for V. Lavin6.7
2Yonathan Andía
5Camilo Moya
32Brian Nicolas Ferreyra80'replaced by J. Soto6.5
17Martín Hiriart
19Matías Campos López61'for F. Pozzo6.7

D. La Serena Substitutes

17Yahir Salazar46'for F. Chamorro6.9
38Ignacio Sáez
16Joaquín Gutiérrez
5Lucas Alarcón7.0
3Matías Pérez83'for B. Gutierrez6.5
8Gonzalo Escalante67'for M. Pinto90+1'6.3
6Sebastián Díaz
28Joan Orellana
11Diego Rubio84'for J. Vargas6.5

Match Stats

Union La CaleraD. La Serena
61%Ball Possession39%
9Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards3
19Total Shots7
7Shots on Goal2
9Shots off Goal4
10Shots Inside Box1
9Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots1
11Fouls12
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves7
456Total Passes320
345Passes Accurate225
76%Pass Accuracy70%

Team Comparison

Union La CaleraUnion La Calera
D. La SerenaD. La Serena
1528Elo Rating 1539
0.75Attack 1.36
1.87Defense 1.55
19%Hit Rate 37%
10.4Shots per Game 11.9
3.0Shots on Target 4.6
5.9Corners per Game 4.8
2.3Cards per Game 3.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Union La CaleraUnion La Calera
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.2 in first half)
D. La SerenaD. La Serena
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

Union La CaleraUnion La Calera2Wins · 25%
Draws225%
D. La SerenaD. La Serena4Wins · 50%
2.4Avg Goals
63%Both teams scored5 of 8
50%3+ goals4 of 8

Previous meetings

Copa De La Liga07/06/2026
D. La SerenaUnion La Calera
02
Primera División06/03/2026
D. La SerenaUnion La Calera
30
Primera División16/08/2025
Union La CaleraD. La Serena
11
Primera División16/03/2025
D. La SerenaUnion La Calera
10
Primera División30/10/2022
D. La SerenaUnion La Calera
21
Primera División22/05/2022
Union La CaleraD. La Serena
11
Primera División28/11/2021
Union La CaleraD. La Serena
12
Primera División14/08/2021
D. La SerenaUnion La Calera
12

Recent Form

Union La CaleraUnion La Calera
2W3D5L
22/08/2026
A. ItalianoUnion La Calera
00
D
16/08/2026
NublenseUnion La Calera
21
L
09/08/2026
Union La CaleraColo Colo
12
L
06/08/2026
Santiago WanderersUnion La Calera
04
W
01/08/2026
CobresalUnion La Calera
40
L
28/07/2026
Union La CaleraEverton de Vina
11
D
12/07/2026
Coquimbo UnidoUnion La Calera
5041
L
09/07/2026
Union La CaleraCoquimbo Unido
01
L
04/07/2026
Union San FelipeUnion La Calera
11
D
02/07/2026
Universidad de ChileUnion La Calera
01
W
D. La SerenaD. La Serena
3W4D3L
23/08/2026
D. La SerenaCobresal
33
D
15/08/2026
Universidad de ConcepcionD. La Serena
02
W
08/08/2026
Coquimbo UnidoD. La Serena
11
D
02/08/2026
D. La SerenaO'Higgins
12
L
26/07/2026
U. CatolicaD. La Serena
33
D
12/07/2026
CobreloaD. La Serena
10
L
05/07/2026
D. La SerenaAntofagasta
24
L
02/07/2026
CobresalD. La Serena
01
W
28/06/2026
D. La SerenaCobreloa
21
W
24/06/2026
D. La SerenaCobresal
00
D

Referee Profile

Cristian Garay185 matches

4.64Cards per match
4.30Yellow cards per match
0.34Red cards per match
23.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Cristian Garay4.64
Other referees5.44

4.64 cards a match, 0.80 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.44).

Cards come from 156 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Colo ColoColo Colo27194459:30+2961WWDLD
2Universidad de ChileUniversidad de Chile27156647:22+2551WLWWW
3U. CatolicaU. Catolica27154856:37+1949WWDLW
4Deportes LimacheDeportes Limache271241148:40+840LWWDL
5Everton de VinaEverton de Vina27117943:35+840LDLWW
6Coquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido261151039:35+438WWLWL
7PalestinoPalestino271151139:38+138LLDDL
8ConcepciónConcepción271151130:30038WWLDD
9D. La SerenaD. La Serena27910840:42-237WDWLL
10NublenseNublense27981031:41-1035LLWLL
11HuachipatoHuachipato26961134:41-733LDDWW
12O'HigginsO'Higgins27941432:42-1031LWDLL
13A. ItalianoA. Italiano27791128:36-830LLDDW
14CobresalCobresal27761439:50-1127LDDDW
15Universidad de ConcepcionUniversidad de Concepcion27751522:49-2726WLLDL
16Union La CaleraUnion La Calera27661524:43-1924WLWDW
#TeamMPGPts
1Colo ColoColo Colo2759:3061
2Universidad de ChileUniversidad de Chile2747:2251
3U. CatolicaU. Catolica2756:3749
4Deportes LimacheDeportes Limache2748:4040
5Everton de VinaEverton de Vina2743:3540
6Coquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido2639:3538
7PalestinoPalestino2739:3838
8ConcepciónConcepción2730:3038
9D. La SerenaD. La Serena2740:4237
10NublenseNublense2731:4135
11HuachipatoHuachipato2634:4133
12O'HigginsO'Higgins2732:4231
13A. ItalianoA. Italiano2728:3630
14CobresalCobresal2739:5027
15Universidad de ConcepcionUniversidad de Concepcion2722:4926
16Union La CaleraUnion La Calera2724:4324

About the Union La Calera vs D. La Serena forecast

The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Union La Calera and D. La Serena in the Primera División table

In the Primera División table, D. La Serena are 9th and Union La Calera 16th, 13 points apart. League goal record so far: Union La Calera 24-43, D. La Serena 40-42. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.