Concepción vs A. Italiano Prediction
Chile · Regular Season - 22
Estadio Ester Roa 05/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
56%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
2.00
SignalNEUTRALModel41%SurpriseMediumGap+9.0%
Concepción Rest
6 days
A. Italiano Rest
5 days
Concepción vs A. Italiano: result, form and history
A. Italiano beat Concepción 1-0 in the Primera División on 5 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Concepción had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for A. Italiano.
Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 2.0 goals a game across 3 matches. A. Italiano tend to win more corners, 6.3 a game to 3.3 for Concepción.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
141%2.00
X27%3.34
232%3.60
Double Chance
1X68%1.25
X259%1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes66%1.81
No34%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.53 + 1.3 = 2.83
Over 1.577%1.30
Over 2.555%2.00
Over 3.533%3.50
Under 1.523%3.25
Under 2.545%1.75
Under 3.567%1.28
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 3.7 = 9.4
Over 8.555%1.57
Over 9.543%1.99
Over 10.533%2.58
Under 8.545%2.22
Under 9.557%1.74
Under 10.567%1.44
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.5 = 5
Over 3.573%-
Over 4.556%1.47
Under 3.527%-
Under 4.544%2.57
Match Events
17'César PinaresAssist: Diego Coelho
30'Norman Rodriguez
45'Fernando Martinez INJoaquín Montecinos out
45'Nicolas Fuentes INAldrix Jara out
45'Federico Mateos INMarco Collao Ramos out
56'Jorge Henríquez INFernando Romero out
64'Paolo Guajardo INMario Eduardo Sandoval out
68'Mario Eduardo SandovalFoul
69'Ethan Espinoza INCarlos Escobar out
69'Y. Rodríguez INMisael Dávila out
73'Card upgrade confirmedFausto Grillo
74'Fausto GrilloViolent conduct
76'Joaquín MontecinosDissent
77'Franco TroyanskyFoul
84'Franco Troyansky INMarcelo Ortíz out
90+3'Diego Coelho INDamian Pizarro out
90+5'Aldrix JaraFoul
Lineups
ConcepciónA. Italiano
4-4-2Coach: P. GraffAvg ratingAvg rating
25N. Araya
18Y. Rodríguez
21N. Rodríguez
37F. Grillo
23C. Riquelme
8F. Martínez
16M. Sandoval
31N. Fuentes
20J. Henríquez
30E. Espinoza
32J. Larrivey
1T. Ahumada
35R. Rebolledo
13E. Ferrario
4D. Piña
3F. Salomoni
7P. Guajardo
28F. Mateos
19C. Pinares
21G. Chiaverano
11F. Troyansky
9D. CoelhoConcepción Substitutes
7F. Romero56'for Jorge Henríquez
12N. Veloso
3D. Carrasco
24M. Cavalleri
22M. Dávila69'for Y. Rodríguez
9C. Escobar69'for Ethan Espinoza
19A. Jara45'for Nicolas Fuentes90+5'
15J. Montecinos45'for Fernando Martinez76'
29D. Varas
A. Italiano Substitutes
27M. Fuentes
25P. Garrido
17F. Loyola
29M. Ortiz84'for Franco Troyansky
22D. Pizarro90+3'for Diego Coelho
6M. Sandoval64'for Paolo Guajardo68'
30A. Uribe
8M. Collao45'for Federico Mateos
2V. Zenteno
Match Stats
ConcepciónA. Italiano 67%Ball Possession33%
9Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
20Total Shots11
6Shots on Goal3
12Shots off Goal4
13Shots Inside Box4
7Shots Outside Box7
2Blocked Shots4
9Fouls16
2Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves6
481Total Passes251
385Passes Accurate164
16Free Kicks9
Team Comparison
ConcepciónA. Italiano1593Elo Rating 1563
0.69Attack 0.42
1.65Defense 1.87
27%Hit Rate 0%
8.5Shots per Game 16.9
2.8Shots on Target 6.7
3.3Corners per Game 6.3
2.6Cards per Game 4.6
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.83 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Concepción- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.5 vs 0.2 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
A. Italiano- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings, all competitions
Concepción0Wins · 0%Draws133%
A. Italiano2Wins · 67%
2Wins · 67%2.0Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3
Previous meetings
14/03/2026A. ItalianoConcepción30
08/05/2025A. ItalianoConcepción21
06/04/2025ConcepciónA. Italiano00
Recent Form
Concepción8W1D1L
30/08/2026
NublenseConcepciónConcepción
Coquimbo Unido
CobresalConcepciónConcepción
Universidad de ConcepcionConcepción
U. CatolicaConcepción
O'Higgins
D. Puerto MonttConcepción
NublenseConcepción01
W23/08/2026ConcepciónCoquimbo Unido11
D16/08/2026CobresalConcepción02
W09/08/2026ConcepciónUniversidad de Concepcion10
W02/08/2026ConcepciónU. Catolica30
W27/07/2026ConcepciónO'Higgins20
W12/07/2026ConcepciónD. Puerto Montt
ConcepciónD. Puerto Montt20
W07/07/2026Concepción
Deportes Temuco
ConcepciónDeportes Temuco20
W03/07/2026
HuachipatoConcepción
29/06/2026HuachipatoConcepción12
WD. Puerto MonttConcepción20
LA. Italiano4W3D3L
30/08/2026
Colo ColoA. ItalianoA. Italiano
Union La Calera
Everton de VinaA. ItalianoA. ItalianoNublenseUniversidad de ConcepcionA. ItalianoA. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
Deportes Santa CruzA. ItalianoA. Italiano
Palestino
Colo ColoA. Italiano51
L22/08/2026A. ItalianoUnion La Calera00
D16/08/2026Everton de VinaA. Italiano11
D11/08/2026A. ItalianoNublense22
D01/08/2026Universidad de ConcepcionA. Italiano01
W26/07/2026A. ItalianoUniversidad de Chile12
L11/07/2026
MagallanesA. Italiano
05/07/2026MagallanesA. Italiano01
WDeportes Santa CruzA. Italiano21
L01/07/2026A. ItalianoPalestino32
W27/06/2026A. ItalianoMagallanes
A. ItalianoMagallanes21
WLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 59:30 | +29 | 61 | WWDLD |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 47:22 | +25 | 51 | WLWWW |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 56:37 | +19 | 49 | WWDLW |
| 4 |  Deportes Limache | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 48:40 | +8 | 40 | LWWDL |
| 5 | Everton de Vina | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 43:35 | +8 | 40 | LDLWW |
| 6 | Coquimbo Unido | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:35 | +4 | 38 | WWLWL |
| 7 | Palestino | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 39:38 | +1 | 38 | LLDDL |
| 8 | Concepción | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 30:30 | 0 | 38 | WWLDD |
| 9 |  D. La Serena | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 40:42 | -2 | 37 | WDWLL |
| 10 | Nublense | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 31:41 | -10 | 35 | LLWLL |
| 11 | Huachipato | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 34:41 | -7 | 33 | LDDWW |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 32:42 | -10 | 31 | LWDLL |
| 13 | A. Italiano | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:36 | -8 | 30 | LLDDW |
| 14 | Cobresal | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 39:50 | -11 | 27 | LDDDW |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 22:49 | -27 | 26 | WLLDL |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 24:43 | -19 | 24 | WLWDW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 27 | 59:30 | 61 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 27 | 47:22 | 51 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 27 | 56:37 | 49 |
| 4 | Deportes Limache | 27 | 48:40 | 40 |
| 5 | Everton de Vina | 27 | 43:35 | 40 |
| 6 | Coquimbo Unido | 26 | 39:35 | 38 |
| 7 | Palestino | 27 | 39:38 | 38 |
| 8 | Concepción | 27 | 30:30 | 38 |
| 9 | D. La Serena | 27 | 40:42 | 37 |
| 10 | Nublense | 27 | 31:41 | 35 |
| 11 | Huachipato | 26 | 34:41 | 33 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 27 | 32:42 | 31 |
| 13 | A. Italiano | 27 | 28:36 | 30 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 27 | 39:50 | 27 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 27 | 22:49 | 26 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 27 | 24:43 | 24 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera División matches
- Union La Calera vs D. La Serena 01/09/26
- U. Catolica vs O'Higgins 01/09/26
- Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion 03/09/26
- Deportes Limache vs Nublense 03/09/26
- Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica 05/09/26
- Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido 06/09/26
- D. La Serena vs Nublense 06/09/26
- O'Higgins vs Union La Calera 06/09/26
About the Concepción vs A. Italiano forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Concepción and A. Italiano in the Primera División table
In the Primera División table, Concepción are 8th and A. Italiano 13th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Concepción 30-30, A. Italiano 28-36. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.