Coventry vs Aston Villa Prediction

League CupEngland England · Round of 32
CupKnockout
Coventry
1-3
Finished
HT 1-2
Aston Villa
Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry 16/09/2026
CoventryCoventry
1-3
Finished
Aston VillaAston Villa

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.36
SignalSOLIDModel59%RiskHighGap-3.2%
Coventry Rest
3 days
Aston Villa Rest
4 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
22%3.16
X
18%3.65
2
60%2.10
Double Chance
1X
40%1.70
X2
78%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.47
No
47%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.19 + 1.71 = 2.90
Over 1.5
85%1.17
Over 2.5
56%1.57
Over 3.5
38%2.38
Under 1.5
15%4.80
Under 2.5
44%2.40
Under 3.5
62%1.53
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

7'Tammy AbrahamAssist: George Hemmings
12'Aurele Amenda INEthan Pinnock out
23'Stephen MfuniFoul
26'Ross BarkleyFoul
27'Victor Torp
40'Ross BarkleyAssist: Ibrahim Mbaye
43'Aaron Wan-BissakaNot retreating
45'Marco Bizot INZion Suzuki out
46'Caleb YirenkyiHandball
57'Tatsuhiro Sakamoto INLoum Tchaouna out
58'Sidiki Cherif INEllis Simms out
59'Tammy AbrahamAssist: Ross Barkley
64'John McGinn INJohan Manzambi out
64'Ibrahim Mbaye INEmiliano Buendía out
69'Tammy Abraham INNicolas Jackson out
73'Caleb Yirenkyi INFrank Onyeka out
73'Stephen Mfuni INJake Bidwell out
79'George Hemmings IN Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha out
87'Frank OnyekaFoul
90'Emiliano BuendíaDissent

Lineups

Coventry
4-2-3-1Coach: F. Lampard
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1Coach: Unai Emery
D. Bentley25D. BentleyD. Bentley
J. Latibeaudiere22J. LatibeaudiereJ. Latibeaudiere
B. Thomas4B. ThomasB. Thomas
A. Amenda24A. AmendaA. Amenda
S. Mfuni12S. MfuniS. Mfuni
Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi8C. Marfo YirenkyiCaleb Marfo Yirenkyi
V. Torp29V. TorpV. Torp
T. Sakamoto7T. SakamotoT. Sakamoto
G. Hamer38G. HamerG. Hamer
Y. Gboho34Y. GbohoY. Gboho
S. Cherif49S. CherifS. Cherif
M. Bizot40M. BizotM. Bizot
A. Wan-Bissaka29A. Wan-BissakaA. Wan-Bissaka
T. Harwood-Bellis4T. Harwood-BellisT. Harwood-Bellis
T. Mings5T. MingsT. Mings
M. Ruggeri13M. RuggeriM. Ruggeri
L. Bogarde26L. BogardeL. Bogarde
R. Barkley6R. BarkleyR. Barkley
I. Mbaye19I. MbayeI. Mbaye
J. McGinn7J. McGinnJ. McGinn
George Hemmings53G. HemmingsGeorge Hemmings
T. Abraham18T. AbrahamT. Abraham

Coventry Substitutes

10E. Mason-ClarkM
6M. GrimesM
21J. BidwellD
16F. OnyekaM
2E. PinnockD
9E. SimmsF
17L. TchaounaF
23B. Thomas-AsanteF
13B. WilsonG

Aston Villa Substitutes

10E. BuendíaM
2M. CashD
17A. GarnachoF
11N. JacksonF
8B. KamaraM
44J. ManzambiM
3V. LindelöfD
1Z. SuzukiG
47Alysson EdwardF

Match Stats

CoventryAston Villa
42%Ball Possession58%
2Corner Kicks9
3Yellow Cards3
15Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal9
6Shots off Goal3
5Shots Inside Box14
10Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots6
17Fouls12
2Offsides2
6Goalkeeper Saves4
385Total Passes510
318Passes Accurate447
12Free Kicks16

Team Comparison

CoventryCoventry
Aston VillaAston Villa
1701Elo Rating 1844
0.66Attack 0.96
0.47Defense 1.27
17%Hit Rate 23%
11.2Shots per Game 11.0
3.9Shots on Target 3.6
4.4Corners per Game 4.2
1.4Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.89 goals
📉Home Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk90%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

CoventryCoventry
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Aston VillaAston Villa
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.3 in second half)

Recent Form

CoventryCoventry
1W0D4L
13/09/2026
CoventryBrighton
05
L
05/09/2026
Manchester CityCoventry
10
L
29/08/2026
CoventryHull City
01
L25/08/2026
PlymouthCoventry
24
W21/08/2026
ArsenalCoventry
30
L
Aston VillaAston Villa
1W1D3L
12/09/2026
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
12
L08/09/2026
Club Brugge KVAston Villa
23
W05/09/2026
Hull CityAston Villa
00
D31/08/2026
Aston VillaArsenal
01
L23/08/2026
BrightonAston Villa
40
L

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Bristol City0
Walsall1
Wolves3
Port Vale0
Wycombe1
Stevenage2
Middlesbrough1
Wrexham0
Cambridge United2
Barnet1
QPR10
Millwall12
On penalties
AFC Wimbledon15
Newport County14
On penalties
Barnsley16
Wigan15
On penalties
Bristol Rovers0
Peterborough1
Bromley14
Reading15
On penalties
Burnley14
Notts County13
On penalties
Burton Albion1
Blackburn2
Cardiff3
Swindon Town2
Crewe2
Accrington ST1
Derby1
Lincoln2
Fleetwood Town1
Chesterfield0
Gillingham0
Luton3
Norwich4
Milton Keynes Dons1
Grimsby1
Blackpool3
Leicester1
Northampton0
Leyton Orient2
Oxford United0
Preston14
Huddersfield13
On penalties
Salford City13
Shrewsbury14
On penalties
Sheffield Wednesday1
Bolton0
Stockport County14
Doncaster15
On penalties
Stoke City2
Oldham0
Swansea0
Birmingham1
West Ham3
Portsmouth1
Bradford2
Rochdale0
Watford1
Crawley Town0
Cheltenham1
Charlton3
Colchester0
Southampton2
Rotherham1
West Brom4
Mansfield Town0
Sheffield Utd3
Plymouth2
Exeter City0
Bournemouth
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Sunderland
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded
Ipswich
Seeded
Coventry
Seeded
Hull City
Seeded
Nottingham Forest
Seeded
Leeds
Seeded
Brentford
Seeded
Newcastle
Seeded
Tottenham
Seeded
Everton
Seeded
Chelsea
Seeded
Fulham
Seeded
Cardiff1
Norwich2
Doncaster1
Middlesbrough3
Barnsley3
Crewe2
Blackpool1
Lincoln4
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Ipswich3
Leicester1
Southampton1
West Ham4
Stevenage0
Reading3
Blackburn1
Sheffield Utd2
Fleetwood Town4
Shrewsbury0
Plymouth2
Coventry4
Sheffield Wednesday0
Wolves2
Stoke City14
Hull City15
On penalties
Walsall05
Leyton Orient06
On penalties
Watford1
Peterborough5
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Birmingham1
Brentford6
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Newcastle3
West Brom2
Tottenham5
Charlton1
Preston0
Everton4
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Bournemouth
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Sunderland
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded
Bournemouth4
Lincoln0
Crystal Palace3
Middlesbrough0
Leyton Orient1
Bradford3
Sunderland1
Hull City0
Millwall0
Newcastle1
Chelsea6
Leeds3
Peterborough37
Barnsley36
On penalties
West Ham2
Fulham3
Liverpool3
Tottenham1
Reading1
Brentford2
Ipswich2
Arsenal4
Everton1
Wolves0
Fleetwood Town1
Sheffield Utd0
Coventry1
Aston Villa3
Manchester United2
Brighton3
Manchester City5
Norwich0
Bournemouth4
Lincoln0
Crystal Palace3
Middlesbrough0
Leyton Orient1
Bradford3
Sunderland1
Hull City0
Millwall0
Newcastle1
Chelsea6
Leeds3
Peterborough37
Barnsley36
On penalties
West Ham2
Fulham3
Liverpool3
Tottenham1
Reading1
Brentford2
Ipswich2
Arsenal4
Everton1
Wolves0
Fleetwood Town1
Sheffield Utd0
Coventry1
Aston Villa3
Manchester United2
Brighton3
Manchester City5
Norwich0

Coventry vs Aston Villa Prediction

As a knockout-stage League Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

ScorePredicts covers League Cup across every knockout round. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

Coventry and Aston Villa have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.