Atletico-MG vs Santos Prediction

Atletico-MG
2-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Santos
Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta·Alex Gomes Stefano 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.33
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseHighGap-5.6%
Atletico-MG Rest
2 days
Santos Rest
2 days

Atletico-MG vs Santos: the result in context

Atletico-MG beat Santos 2-1 in the Serie A on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Atletico-MG tend to win more corners, 6.3 a game to 3.7 for Santos.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%2.15
X
27%3.44
2
30%3.24
Double Chance
1X
70%1.33
X2
57%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.63
No
43%2.15
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.64 + 1.15 = 2.79
Over 1.5
76%1.25
Over 2.5
53%1.80
Over 3.5
31%3.00
Under 1.5
24%3.80
Under 2.5
47%2.00
Under 3.5
69%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 5.1 = 10.9
Over 8.5
66%1.30
Over 9.5
59%1.58
Over 10.5
49%1.98
Under 8.5
34%2.95
Under 9.5
41%2.25
Under 10.5
51%1.76
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 2.6 = 5
Over 3.5
74%1.36
Over 4.5
56%1.73
Under 3.5
26%2.95
Under 4.5
44%2.04

Match Events

8'Willian Arão INLuan Peres out
45'Victor Hugo Gomes Silva INAlan Minda out
45'Benjamín Rollheiser INRony out
45+2'Alan FrancoFoul
45+4'Lucas VeríssimoArgument
66'Thiago BorbasArgument
66'Luan PeresArgument
69'Alan Franco INMamady Cisse out
69'Kevin Castaño INMaycon de Andrade Barberan out
70'Natanael Moreira Milouski INAngelo Preciado out
70'Igor GomesFoul
72'Gustavo Henrique INJoão Schmidt out
72'Gabriel Bontempo INPhilippe Coutinho out
82'Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa INEduardo Pereira Rodrigues out
85'João SchmidtFoul
85'Everton INÁlvaro Barreal out
88'Gabriel BarbosaAssist: Philippe Coutinho
89'Gabriel Barbosa
89'Willian Arão
90+1'Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de SouzaAssist: Maycon de Andrade Barberan
90+7'Thiago BorbasAssist: Alan Minda

Lineups

Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1Coach: E. Domínguez
Santos
4-2-3-1Coach: Cuca
Avg rating6.91
Avg rating6.61
Gabriel Delfim6.51G. Delfim
Natanael7.42Natanael
Léo Duarte7.33L. Duarte
Vitor Hugo8.314V. Hugo
K. Pascini6.736K. Pascini
A. Franco6.321A. Franco
Alexsander6.65Alexsander
Victor Hugo6.930V. Hugo
K. Castaño7.015K. Castaño
Igor Gomes6.217I. Gomes
T. Borbas8.218T. Borbas
Diógenes6.91Diógenes
Rodinei6.923Rodinei
Lucas Veríssimo6.54L. Veríssimo
Willian Arão6.115W. Arão
G. Escobar6.631G. Escobar
Gustavo Henrique Pereira6.648G. Henrique Pereira
C. Oliva6.528C. Oliva
Gabriel Bontempo6.38G. Bontempo
B. Rollheiser6.132B. Rollheiser
Everton6.47Everton
Gabriel Barbosa7.59G. Barbosa

Atletico-MG Substitutes

19Reinier
39Mamady Cisse69'for Alan Franco6.7
40Vitão
53Pedro Lemos
6Renan Lodi
27A. Minda45'for Victor Hugo Gomes Silva6.5
92Dudu82'for Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa6.4
31Robert
23A. Preciado70'for Natanael Moreira Milouski6.8
13Lyanco
8Maycon69'for Kevin Castaño6.8
29Caua

Santos Substitutes

22Á. Barreal85'for Everton6.2
17G. Caballero
11Philippe Coutinho72'for Gabriel Bontempo7.0
81S. Pierri
45Lima
14Luan Peres8'for Willian Arão66'6.8
5João Schmidt72'for Gustavo Henrique85'7.2
34João Paulo
30M. Terceros
33Rony45'for Benjamín Rollheiser6.3
16Thaciano
18Igor Vinicius

Match Stats

Atletico-MGSantos
58%Ball Possession42%
12Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards5
21Total Shots10
5Shots on Goal3
12Shots off Goal5
18Shots Inside Box5
3Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots2
10Fouls12
1Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves4
552Total Passes549
484Passes Accurate480
12Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
SantosSantos
1770Elo Rating 1774
1.43Attack 1.77
2.01Defense 1.58
59%Hit Rate 58%
14.8Shots per Game 12.9
6.5Shots on Target 4.0
6.3Corners per Game 3.7
1.9Cards per Game 3.6

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk60%

Game State Tendencies

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
SantosSantos
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.6 vs 0.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG4Wins · 40%
Draws330%
SantosSantos3Wins · 30%
2.4Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

CONMEBOL Sudamericana17/09/2026
Atletico-MGSantos
3412
CONMEBOL Sudamericana10/09/2026
SantosAtletico-MG
20
Serie A12/04/2026
SantosAtletico-MG
10
Serie A14/09/2025
Atletico-MGSantos
11
Serie A17/04/2025
SantosAtletico-MG
20
Serie A27/08/2023
Atletico-MGSantos
20
Serie A23/04/2023
SantosAtletico-MG
00
Serie A06/10/2022
SantosAtletico-MG
12
Serie A12/06/2022
Atletico-MGSantos
11
Serie A14/10/2021
Atletico-MGSantos
31

Referee Profile

Alex Gomes Stefano135 matches

5.17Cards per match
4.88Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
29.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Alex Gomes Stefano5.17
Other referees5.28

5.17 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.28).

Cards come from 93 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo31207461:25+3667WWDWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras31199354:22+3266WWWDW
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense31158849:37+1253LWDWD
4CruzeiroCruzeiro311561050:46+451WLWWL
5FluminenseFluminense31149849:39+1051LLWWL
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG31148942:35+750WWDWD
7BahiaBahia311310844:39+549LWLLW
8SantosSantos311291048:46+245WLDWW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo311261336:35+142WWLLW
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino311181239:36+341DWDLL
11BotafogoBotafogo311091244:48-439WDLLW
12CoritibaCoritiba311091238:49-1139LDLLD
13VitoriaVitoria311071434:45-1137DLWLD
14MirassolMirassol31991336:44-836WLDWD
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama30981336:43-735LDWWW
16CorinthiansCorinthians31891432:39-733DLLLL
17InternacionalInternacional317111333:40-732LDWLW
18GremioGremio317101434:44-1031LDDDL
19RemoRemo315111534:49-1526DDDLL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc30391830:62-3218LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3161:2567
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3154:2266
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3149:3753
4CruzeiroCruzeiro3150:4651
5FluminenseFluminense3149:3951
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3142:3550
7BahiaBahia3144:3949
8SantosSantos3148:4645
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3136:3542
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3139:3641
11BotafogoBotafogo3144:4839
12CoritibaCoritiba3138:4939
13VitoriaVitoria3134:4537
14MirassolMirassol3136:4436
15Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3036:4335
16CorinthiansCorinthians3132:3933
17InternacionalInternacional3133:4032
18GremioGremio3134:4431
19RemoRemo3134:4926
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3030:6218
PromotionRelegation

About the Atletico-MG vs Santos forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Atletico-MG and Santos in the Serie A table

Atletico-MG and Santos are close in the Serie A table, 6th and 8th, with 5 points between them. League goal record so far: Atletico-MG 42-35, Santos 48-46. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.