Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Serie A

Brazil · Regular Season - 28

Atletico-MG

1-1

Finished

HT 0-1

Chapecoense-sc

Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta·Raphael Claus 19/09/2026

Atletico-MG

1-1

Finished

Chapecoense-sc

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality

Complete

Match Importance

4.4 / 10

Value Analysis

55%Trust

Home Cards

Home Cards Under 1.5

1.89

SignalNEUTRALModel55%SurpriseMediumGap+5.2%

Atletico-MG Rest

2 days

Chapecoense-sc Rest

6 days

Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc: result, form and history

Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc drew 1-1 in the Serie A on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 3 previous meetings averaged 3.3 goals, and both sides scored in 2 of them. Referee Raphael Claus averages 4.32 cards a game, 0.73 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result

66%1.40

21%4.60

13%7.50

Double Chance

87%1.08

34%2.85

Both Teams to Score

Yes

58%1.91

42%1.80

Goals

Projected Goals: 1.82 + 0.98 = 2.80

Over 1.5

79%1.20

Over 2.5

58%1.72

Over 3.5

35%2.75

Under 1.5

21%4.10

Under 2.5

42%2.12

Under 3.5

65%1.44

Corners

Projected Corners: 6 + 4.2 = 10.2

Over 8.5

65%1.28

Over 9.5

53%1.52

Over 10.5

40%1.88

Under 8.5

35%3.05

Under 9.5

47%2.29

Under 10.5

60%1.85

Cards

Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2.9 = 4.4

Over 3.5

64%1.66

Over 4.5

45%2.25

Under 3.5

36%2.13

Under 4.5

55%1.60

Match Events

44'Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraAssist: Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos

48'Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de SouzaFoul

58'Alan Minda INEduardo Pereira Rodrigues out

58'Kaua Pascini INMateo Cassierra out

58'Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa INRenan Lodi out

69'Mateo Cassierra

71'Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira INYannick Bolasie out

71'Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos INBruno Matias out

81'Maycon de Andrade Barberan INKevin Castaño out

81'Vitor Fernandes Chaves TeixeiraFoul

82'Giovanni Augusto INMiguel Carvalho Vianna out

82'Bruno Pacheco INFernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior out

88'Yago Felipe INDavid Antunes da Silva out

90'Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno JúniorFoul

Lineups

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1Coach: E. Domínguez

Chapecoense-sc

4-2-3-1Coach: Rafael Lacerda

Avg rating6.90

Avg rating6.73

6.41G. Delfim

7.42Natanael

6.540Vitão

6.614V. Hugo

6.836K. Pascini

6.98Maycon

6.35Alexsander

7.228T. Cuello

7.27Fred

7.111Bernard

6.527A. Minda

8.298Anderson

7.523Dudu

6.821K. Faria Gomes

6.93Doma

6.391B. Pacheco

6.427Camilo

6.588Y. Felipe

7.07Marcinho

6.610G. Augusto

6.131Garcez

99T. Eduardo Silva De Oliveira

Atletico-MG Substitutes

15K. Castaño81'for Maycon de Andrade Barberan6.9

9M. Cassierra58'for Kaua Pascini69'8.2

39Mamady Cisse

21A. Franco

6Renan Lodi58'for Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa7.0

92Dudu58'for Alan Minda6.7

31Robert

23A. Preciado

25T. Pérez

17Igor Gomes

13Lyanco

3Léo Duarte

Chapecoense-sc Substitutes

70Rubens

15Rafael Thyere

12Fernando82'for Bruno Pacheco90'5.9

19David Antunes88'for Yago Felipe6.3

80Miguel Carvalho82'for Giovanni Augusto6.4

16Bruno Matias71'for Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos6.3

77D. Borrero

11Y. Bolasie71'replaced by Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira6.6

30Matheus Aurélio

55Rosivan Macedo Soares

Match Stats

Atletico-MGChapecoense-sc

66%Ball Possession34%

11Corner Kicks2

2Yellow Cards1

26Total Shots7

11Shots on Goal1

10Shots off Goal3

19Shots Inside Box6

7Shots Outside Box1

5Blocked Shots3

11Fouls11

3Offsides0

0Goalkeeper Saves8

682Total Passes345

608Passes Accurate281

9Free Kicks10

Atletico-MG

Chapecoense-sc

1745Elo Rating 1518

1.05Attack 0.62

1.65Defense 0.54

31%Hit Rate 23%

12.4Shots per Game 10.6

4.6Shots on Target 3.2

4.6Corners per Game 4.4

1.7Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+226 Elo

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.8 goals

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H

📉Home Underperforming

📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Atletico-MG

Tied at half-time in 40% of matches

Chapecoense-sc

No tendency data available

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Atletico-MG1Wins · 33%

Draws267%

Chapecoense-sc

0Wins · 0%

3.3Avg Goals

67%Both teams scored2 of 3

67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

03/04/2026

Chapecoense-sc

Atletico-MG

07/10/2021

Chapecoense-sc

Atletico-MG

22/06/2021

Atletico-MG

Chapecoense-sc

Recent Form

16/08/2026

Atletico-MG

Gremio

Referee Profile

Raphael Claus296 matches

4.32Cards per match

4.07Yellow cards per match

0.25Red cards per match

24.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Raphael Claus4.32

Other referees5.05

4.32 cards a match, 0.73 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.05).

Cards come from 288 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	33	22	7	4	68:28	+40	73	WWWWD
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	56:22	+34	70	DWWWW
3	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	52:46	+6	57	WWWLW
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	52:42	+10	54	WLLLW
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	50:40	+10	54	LDLWD
6	Bahia	33	14	11	8	48:42	+6	53	WDLWL
7	Atletico-MG	33	14	8	11	44:39	+5	50	LLWWD
8	Santos	33	12	11	10	49:47	+2	47	DDWLD
9	RB Bragantino	33	12	8	13	42:38	+4	44	WLDWD
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	39:39	0	43	LDWWL
11	Coritiba	33	11	9	13	40:50	-10	42	WLLDL
12	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45:53	-8	39	LLWDL
13	Vasco DA Gama	32	10	8	14	40:49	-9	38	LWLDW
14	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	35:48	-13	38	LDDLW
15	Gremio	33	9	10	14	37:44	-7	37	WWLDD
16	Mirassol	33	9	10	14	37:47	-10	37	LDWLD
17	Corinthians	33	9	9	15	36:42	-6	36	WLDLL
18	Internacional	33	8	11	14	37:42	-5	35	LWLDW
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	36:51	-15	29	WLDDD
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	4	9	19	32:66	-34	21	LWLLL

#	Team	MP	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	33	68:28	73
2	Palmeiras	33	56:22	70
3	Cruzeiro	33	52:46	57
4	Fluminense	33	52:42	54
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	50:40	54
6	Bahia	33	48:42	53
7	Atletico-MG	33	44:39	50
8	Santos	33	49:47	47
9	RB Bragantino	33	42:38	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	39:39	43
11	Coritiba	33	40:50	42
12	Botafogo	33	45:53	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	32	40:49	38
14	Vitoria	33	35:48	38
15	Gremio	33	37:44	37
16	Mirassol	33	37:47	37
17	Corinthians	33	36:42	36
18	Internacional	33	37:42	35
19	Remo	33	36:51	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	32:66	21

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About the Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Atletico-MG are 7th and Chapecoense-sc 20th, 29 points apart. League goal record so far: Atletico-MG 44-39, Chapecoense-sc 32-66. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.

Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc: result, form and history

Match Forecasts

Match Events