Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte· R. Claus

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
58%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.91
SignalHIGHModel58%RiskMediumGap+6.6%
Atletico-MG Rest
7 days
Chapecoense-sc Rest
6 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.41
X
21%4.50
2
14%7.00
Double Chance
1X
85%1.10
X2
35%2.76
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.91
No
42%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.82 + 0.98 = 2.80
Over 1.5
79%1.21
Over 2.5
58%1.73
Over 3.5
35%2.78
Under 1.5
21%3.98
Under 2.5
42%2.08
Under 3.5
65%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4.2 = 10.2
Over 8.5
65%1.26
Over 9.5
53%1.45
Over 10.5
40%1.74
Under 8.5
35%3.65
Under 9.5
47%2.62
Under 10.5
60%2.01
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.7 = 4.4
Over 3.5
64%-
Over 4.5
45%2.10
Under 3.5
36%-
Under 4.5
55%1.67

Team Comparison

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
1744Elo Rating 1542
1.42Attack 1.51
1.58Defense 1.22
58%Hit Rate 39%
12.4Shots per Game 14.8
4.4Shots on Target 4.3
3.8Corners per Game 4.5
0.9Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+202 Elo
High Goal Expectancy2.8 goals
📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 1 historical meeting

Atletico-MG 0%Draw 100%0% Chapecoense-sc
2Avg Goals
100%BTTS Rate
0%Over 2.5

Referee Profile

R. Claus · 10 matches analysed

4.2Avg Yellows
4.5Avg Cards
23.1Avg Fouls
Stricter than 43% of referees analysed

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo27176453:22+3157WWWWL
2PalmeirasPalmeiras27168347:21+2656WDDWL
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense27137741:31+1046DLDWD
4BahiaBahia271210542:33+946WWWWD
5FluminenseFluminense27129641:35+645LWDWW
6CruzeiroCruzeiro27126939:39042LWLWW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG26116935:31+439WLWDW
8CoritibaCoritiba27108937:38-138DLWWD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino261061032:29+336DLLWD
10SantosSantos2698939:39035WWWDW
11Sao PauloSao Paulo26961131:30+133LWWLD
12VitoriaVitoria27961227:39-1233DWLLW
13CorinthiansCorinthians27881128:29-132LLLLL
14BotafogoBotafogo26881038:41-332DDLLL
15MirassolMirassol27781231:42-1129DWLDD
16GremioGremio26771228:35-728LLWLL
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama26771229:41-1228WLWLL
18InternacionalInternacional276101130:35-528WLLDD
19RemoRemo27581431:45-1423LLLLD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc26381528:52-2417LWLWD
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo2753:2257
2PalmeirasPalmeiras2747:2156
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense2741:3146
4BahiaBahia2742:3346
5FluminenseFluminense2741:3545
6CruzeiroCruzeiro2739:3942
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG2635:3139
8CoritibaCoritiba2737:3838
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino2632:2936
10SantosSantos2639:3935
11Sao PauloSao Paulo2631:3033
12VitoriaVitoria2727:3933
13CorinthiansCorinthians2728:2932
14BotafogoBotafogo2638:4132
15MirassolMirassol2731:4229
16GremioGremio2628:3528
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama2629:4128
18InternacionalInternacional2730:3528
19RemoRemo2731:4523
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2628:5217
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Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Serie A fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie A

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Key Factors for This Match

Atletico-MG and Chapecoense-sc have met 1 times recently, averaging 2 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.