Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro Prediction
Brazil · Quarter-finalsDerbyCupKnockout
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.1 / 10
AI Best Pick
68%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.37
SignalSOLIDModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-4.8%
Atletico-MG Rest
3 days
Cruzeiro Rest
2 days
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro: result, form and history
Atletico-MG beat Cruzeiro 2-1 in the Copa Do Brasil on 2 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 1.8 goals a game across 10 matches. Referee R. Claus averages 4.34 cards a game, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
147%2.57
X23%2.93
230%2.95
Double Chance
1X70%1.37
X253%1.47
Both Teams to Score
Yes39%1.92
No61%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.63 + 0.95 = 2.58
Over 1.569%1.41
Over 2.542%2.35
Over 3.528%4.34
Under 1.531%2.75
Under 2.558%1.58
Under 3.572%1.20
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
17'Ruan Tressoldi INVitao out
25'Otavio CostaUnsportsmanlike conduct
30'Kaio Jorge(Penalty)
35'Kaio JorgeUnsportsmanlike conduct
36'Jonathan Jesus INJoao Marcelo out
42'L. VillalbaTripping
46'M. Cassierra INReinier out
58'Wesley INKenji out
58'NatanaelFoul
61'L. VillalbaFoul
61'L. VillalbaFoul
65'Kaio Jorge INN. Villarreal out
65'Matheus Pereira INMatheus Henrique out
65'Gerson ING. Rojas out
65'Bernard INVictor Hugo out
65'A. Franco INA. Minda out
71'L. RomeroFoul
72'Natanael INGustavo Scarpa out
77'Victor HugoAssist: Fred
88'FredAssist: Victor Hugo
90+4'K. ArroyoRoughing
90+9'Fabricio BrunoUnsportsmanlike conduct
Match Stats
Atletico-MGCruzeiro 
62%Ball Possession38%
8Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
28Total Shots12
8Shots on Goal4
12Shots off Goal5
20Shots Inside Box7
8Shots Outside Box5
8Blocked Shots3
15Fouls13
1Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves5
520Total Passes335
436Passes Accurate241
13Free Kicks15
Team Comparison
Atletico-MGCruzeiro1704Elo Rating 1809
0.33Attack 2.18
1.30Defense 1.57
0%Hit Rate 86%
12.8Shots per Game 17.0
3.1Shots on Target 7.3
5.8Corners per Game 5.5
1.9Cards per Game 2.5
AI Insights
🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Atletico-MG- Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Cruzeiro- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Atletico-MG3Wins · 30%Draws440%
Cruzeiro3Wins · 30%
3Wins · 30%1.8Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10
Previous meetings
26/08/2026CruzeiroAtletico-MG11
03/05/2026CruzeiroAtletico-MG13
08/03/2026CruzeiroAtletico-MG10
25/01/2026Atletico-MGCruzeiro21
16/10/2025Atletico-MGCruzeiro11
12/09/2025CruzeiroAtletico-MG20
28/08/2025Atletico-MGCruzeiro02
19/05/2025CruzeiroAtletico-MG00
09/02/2025CruzeiroAtletico-MG02
11/08/2024CruzeiroAtletico-MG00
Clássico MineiroFull head-to-head record
Recent Form
Atletico-MG5W5D0L
29/08/2026Atletico-MG
VitoriaCruzeiroAtletico-MG
InternacionalAtletico-MGAtletico-MG
RB BragantinoRB BragantinoAtletico-MG
RemoAtletico-MGAtletico-MG
Juventude
PalmeirasAtletico-MG
Atletico-MGVitoria21
W26/08/2026CruzeiroAtletico-MG11
D22/08/2026InternacionalAtletico-MG00
D20/08/2026Atletico-MGRB Bragantino22
D16/08/2026Atletico-MG
Gremio
13/08/2026Atletico-MGGremio30
WRB BragantinoAtletico-MG01
W08/08/2026RemoAtletico-MG22
D05/08/2026JuventudeAtletico-MG
02/08/2026JuventudeAtletico-MG01
WAtletico-MGJuventude00
D27/07/2026PalmeirasAtletico-MG12
WCruzeiro5W3D2L
30/08/2026
Vasco DA GamaCruzeiroCruzeiroAtletico-MGCruzeiro
FlamengoFlamengoCruzeiro
CorinthiansCruzeiroCruzeiroFlamengoCruzeiro
MirassolCruzeiro
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-scCruzeiro
CoritibaCruzeiro
Vasco DA GamaCruzeiro31
L26/08/2026CruzeiroAtletico-MG11
D23/08/2026CruzeiroFlamengo21
W20/08/2026FlamengoCruzeiro21
L17/08/2026CorinthiansCruzeiro12
W13/08/2026CruzeiroFlamengo11
D09/08/2026CruzeiroMirassol31
W06/08/2026CruzeiroChapecoense-sc20
W02/08/2026Chapecoense-scCruzeiro00
D31/07/2026CoritibaCruzeiro01
WReferee Profile
4.34Cards per match
4.09Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
24.1Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.34 cards a match, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.05).
Cards come from 289 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsBracket
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Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Sampaio Corrêa RJ11
Desportiva ES13
Porto BA2
Serra Branca1
Maguary PE1
Laguna0
Baré0
Madureira3
Araguaína0
Primavera SP3
América SE13
Tirol/CEFAT15
Betim1
Piauí0
Gama2
Monte Roraima0
Santa Catarina2
IAPE0
Ji-Paraná2
Pantanal0
Ivinhema1
Independente AP0
Galvez12
Guaporé13
Primavera MG2
Bragantino PA1
Vasco da Gama AC12
Velo Clube13
BotafogoChapecoense-sc
Sao PauloGremioCorinthiansVasco DA Gama
BahiaRemoCruzeiro
SantosCoritibaInternacionalRB BragantinoMirassolFlamengoVitoriaAtletico-MGPalmeiras
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
Ponte Preta
Confiança
Paysandu
Barra
Boavista SC
Maringá
Joinville
CSA
America-RN
GAS
Fortaleza EC
Castanhal
Guarani Campinas
Juazeirense
Capital Brasilia
Atletico Goianiense
Novorizontino
Nacional AM
ABC
Londrina
Penedense
Retrô
Uberlandia
São Luiz
Maranhão
Tombense
Oratório
Anápolis
Cianorte
Imperatriz
Amazonas
Ceilândia
Jacuipense
Águia de Marabá
Independência
ASA
Operario Ferroviario
São Bernardo
Atlético Alagoinhas
Caxias
Guarany de Bagé
Goias
Ypiranga-RS
Mixto
Botafogo PB
Ceara
CEOV Operário
Porto Velho
Portuguesa
Altos
CRB
Figueirense
Azuriz
Nova Iguaçu
Lagarto
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
Vila Nova
Avai
Porto Vitória
Capital
Manaus FC
Operario-PR
Rio Branco ES
Athletic Club
Cuiaba
Volta Redonda
Manauara
AO Itabaiana
America Mineiro
Trem
Fluminense PI
Portuguesa RJ
Maracanã
Sport Recife
Santa Cruz
SousaJuventudeBoavista SC2Maringá3Joinville1CSA0America-RN3GAS0Fortaleza EC4Maguary PE3Castanhal15Guarani Campinas13Juazeirense11Capital Brasilia13Atletico Goianiense1Primavera MG0Novorizontino4Nacional AM0Madureira1ABC0Londrina1Penedense0Retrô1Uberlandia2São Luiz0Maranhão1Tombense14Oratório12Anápolis3Cianorte1Imperatriz0Amazonas3Ceilândia11Jacuipense14Águia de Marabá2Independência0ASA1Operario Ferroviario2São Bernardo2Atlético Alagoinhas0Caxias0Guarany de Bagé1Gama24Goias25Ypiranga-RS2Ji-Paraná0Mixto14Botafogo PB13Ceara2Primavera SP1CEOV Operário11Porto Velho13Portuguesa5Altos1CRB6Porto BA0Figueirense1Azuriz0Nova Iguaçu14Lagarto13Tuna Luso4Tocantinópolis1Velo Clube02Vila Nova04Avai3Porto Vitória0Capital14Manaus FC15Betim0Operario-PR2Rio Branco ES15Athletic Club16Santa Catarina15Cuiaba14Ivinhema2Volta Redonda4Manauara3AO Itabaiana1America Mineiro14Tirol/CEFAT13Trem03Fluminense PI04Portuguesa RJ1Maracanã0Desportiva ES03Sport Recife04Santa Cruz02Sousa04Juventude5Guaporé0BotafogoChapecoense-scSao PauloGremioCorinthiansVasco DA GamaBahiaRemoCruzeiroSantosCoritibaInternacionalRB BragantinoMirassolFlamengoVitoriaAtletico-MGPalmeirasAtletico ParanaenseFluminensePonte PretaConfiançaPaysanduBarraPortuguesa14Avai11Joinville0São Bernardo1Ponte Preta1Guarany de Bagé0Maringá3Uberlandia2Athletic Club2Ypiranga-RS0Manauara0Fortaleza EC1Volta Redonda05America-RN03Goias3Fluminense PI0Confiança2Tombense0Castanhal0Nova Iguaçu4Santa Catarina0Jacuipense1Porto Velho0Atletico Goianiense1Manaus FC04Londrina05Paysandu3Portuguesa RJ1Madureira0Águia de Marabá1Vila Nova15Operario Ferroviario14Maranhão0Ceara1Operario-PR2Capital Brasilia0Sousa0CRB2Amazonas0Figueirense1Mixto0Novorizontino3Barra04America Mineiro03Sport Recife15Anápolis13Tuna Luso11Juventude14BotafogoChapecoense-scSao PauloGremioCorinthiansVasco DA GamaBahiaRemoCruzeiroSantosCoritibaInternacionalRB BragantinoMirassolFlamengoVitoriaAtletico-MGPalmeirasAtletico ParanaenseFluminenseNova Iguaçu0Fortaleza EC1São Bernardo02Ceara03Londrina0Operario-PR1Sport Recife1Athletic Club3Portuguesa2Paysandu3Vila Nova03Confiança05Atletico Goianiense1Ponte Preta0CRB1Figueirense0Jacuipense05Novorizontino04Maringá0Goias1Juventude3Águia de Marabá0Volta Redonda01Barra03BotafogoChapecoense-scSao PauloGremioCorinthiansVasco DA GamaBahiaRemoCruzeiroSantosCoritibaInternacionalRB BragantinoMirassolFlamengoVitoriaAtletico-MGPalmeirasAtletico ParanaenseFluminenseExplore more predictions
This match
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About the Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro forecast
As a derby, this Copa Do Brasil meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
About Copa Do Brasil
More Copa Do Brasil fixtures and forecasts are on the Copa Do Brasil Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.1 out of 10 by our context model. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.