Santos vs Atletico-MG Prediction

Santos
2-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Atletico-MG
Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos·Alexis Herrera, Venezuela 10/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalHIGHModel42%SurpriseHighGap-3.4%
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel63%SurpriseHighGap+8.8%
Santos Rest
3 days
Atletico-MG Rest
4 days

Santos vs Atletico-MG: the result in context

Santos beat Atletico-MG 2-0 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 9 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 9 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%2.10
X
42%3.10
2
21%3.83
Double Chance
1X
79%1.25
X2
63%1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.05
No
54%1.68
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.29 + 0.88 = 2.17
Over 1.5
70%1.45
Over 2.5
38%2.45
Over 3.5
20%4.60
Under 1.5
30%2.62
Under 2.5
62%1.54
Under 3.5
80%1.18
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 3.9 = 9.3
Over 8.5
58%1.54
Over 9.5
45%1.93
Over 10.5
35%2.46
Under 8.5
42%2.28
Under 9.5
55%1.80
Under 10.5
65%1.48
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.5 = 4.6
Over 3.5
68%1.32
Over 4.5
49%1.70
Under 3.5
32%3.05
Under 4.5
51%1.96

Match Events

31'Willian ArãoAssist: Gabriel Barbosa
31'Goal confirmedGabriel Barbosa
59'Angelo Preciado INAlan Minda out
59'Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte INVictor Hugo Gomes Silva out
63'Thaciano INArthur Melo out
68'Christian OlivaAssist: Gabriel Barbosa
79'Mateo Cassierra INReinier Jesus Carvalho out
79'Kevin Castaño INGustavo Scarpa out
82'Benjamín Rollheiser INGustavo Caballero out
83'Christian Oliva INJoão Schmidt out
87'Rodinei INIgor Vinicius out
87'Gabriel Barbosa INVinicius Moreira de Lima out

Lineups

Santos
4-2-3-1Coach: Cuca
Atletico-MG
4-3-3Coach: E. Domínguez
Avg rating6.89
Avg rating6.36
Gabriel Brazão6.877G. Brazão
Rodinei7.023Rodinei
Willian Arão7.715W. Arão
Luan Peres6.414L. Peres
G. Escobar6.731G. Escobar
Gustavo Henrique Pereira6.148G. Henrique Pereira
C. Oliva8.128C. Oliva
Gabriel Bontempo6.98G. Bontempo
B. Rollheiser6.732B. Rollheiser
Thaciano6.416Thaciano
Gabriel Barbosa8.09G. Barbosa
Gabriel Delfim7.01G. Delfim
A. Preciado6.423A. Preciado
Lyanco6.013Lyanco
Vitor Hugo6.614V. Hugo
Renan Lodi6.76R. Lodi
A. Franco6.121A. Franco
Maycon6.58Maycon
K. Castaño6.515K. Castaño
Fred6.67Fred
M. Cassierra6.29M. Cassierra
Bernard6.311Bernard

Santos Substitutes

27D. Fernandes
57Nadson
17G. Caballero82'for Benjamín Rollheiser6.6
45Lima87'for Gabriel Barbosa6.6
6Arthur63'for Thaciano7.2
42João Alencar
5João Schmidt83'for Christian Oliva6.6
34João Paulo
30M. Terceros
38Rafael Gonzaga
18Igor Vinicius87'for Rodinei6.5
26João Paulo Ananias

Atletico-MG Substitutes

19Reinier79'for Mateo Cassierra6.2
39Mamady Cisse
40Vitão
10Gustavo Scarpa79'for Kevin Castaño6.1
30Victor Hugo59'for Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte6.0
5Alexsander
27A. Minda59'for Angelo Preciado6.3
2Natanael
36K. Pascini
92Dudu
31Robert
17Igor Gomes

Match Stats

SantosAtletico-MG
42%Ball Possession58%
6Corner Kicks2
14Total Shots9
7Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal3
10Shots Inside Box5
4Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots3
9Fouls8
1Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves5
416Total Passes571
341Passes Accurate494
8Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

SantosSantos
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
1753Elo Rating 1704
0.94Attack 0.33
1.82Defense 1.30
17%Hit Rate 0%
17.0Shots per Game 12.8
5.9Shots on Target 3.1
5.6Corners per Game 5.8
3.0Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

SantosSantos
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

SantosSantos3Wins · 34%
Draws333%
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3Wins · 33%
2.0Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
22%3+ goals2 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie A12/04/2026
SantosAtletico-MG
10
Serie A14/09/2025
Atletico-MGSantos
11
Serie A17/04/2025
SantosAtletico-MG
20
Serie A27/08/2023
Atletico-MGSantos
20
Serie A23/04/2023
SantosAtletico-MG
00
Serie A06/10/2022
SantosAtletico-MG
12
Serie A12/06/2022
Atletico-MGSantos
11
Serie A14/10/2021
Atletico-MGSantos
31
Serie A28/06/2021
SantosAtletico-MG
20

Referee Profile

Alexis Herrera191 matches

5.03Cards per match
4.72Yellow cards per match
0.32Red cards per match
26.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Alexis Herrera5.03
Other referees5.16

5.03 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.16).

Cards come from 95 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Group B

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Atletico-MGAtletico-MG63128:6+210WWDLW
2CiencianoCienciano62225:7-28DLLWW
3JuventudJuventud614110:7+37DDDWL
4Puerto CabelloPuerto Cabello62136:9-37LDWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Atletico-MGAtletico-MG68:610
2CiencianoCienciano65:78
3JuventudJuventud610:77
4Puerto CabelloPuerto Cabello66:97

Group D

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Deportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta61506:5+18WDDDD
2SantosSantos61418:6+27WDDDD
3San LorenzoSan Lorenzo61416:5+17LDDDW
4Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca61323:7-46LDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Deportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta66:58
2SantosSantos68:67
3San LorenzoSan Lorenzo66:57
4Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca63:76
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About the Santos vs Atletico-MG forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.