Santos vs Atletico-MG Prediction

Santos
2-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Atletico-MG
Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos· Alexis Herrera, Venezuela 10/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalNEUTRALModel42%RiskHighGap-3.4%
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.80
SignalHIGHModel63%RiskHighGap+8.8%
Santos Rest
3 days
Atletico-MG Rest
4 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%2.10
X
42%3.10
2
21%3.83
Double Chance
1X
79%1.25
X2
63%1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.05
No
54%1.68
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.29 + 0.88 = 2.17
Over 1.5
70%1.45
Over 2.5
38%2.45
Over 3.5
20%4.60
Under 1.5
30%2.62
Under 2.5
62%1.54
Under 3.5
80%1.18
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 3.9 = 9.3
Over 8.5
58%1.54
Over 9.5
45%1.93
Over 10.5
35%2.46
Under 8.5
42%2.28
Under 9.5
55%1.80
Under 10.5
65%1.48
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.5 = 4.6
Over 3.5
68%1.32
Over 4.5
49%1.70
Under 3.5
32%3.05
Under 4.5
51%1.96

Match Events

31'Willian ArãoAssist: Gabriel Barbosa
31'Goal confirmedGabriel Barbosa
59'Angelo Preciado INAlan Minda out
59'Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte INVictor Hugo Gomes Silva out
63'Thaciano INArthur Melo out
68'Christian OlivaAssist: Gabriel Barbosa
79'Mateo Cassierra INReinier Jesus Carvalho out
79'Kevin Castaño INGustavo Scarpa out
82'Benjamín Rollheiser INGustavo Caballero out
83'Christian Oliva INJoão Schmidt out
87'Rodinei INIgor Vinicius out
87'Gabriel Barbosa INVinicius Moreira de Lima out

Lineups

Santos
4-2-3-1Coach: Cuca
Atletico-MG
4-3-3Coach: E. Domínguez
Gabriel Brazão77G. BrazãoGabriel Brazão
Rodinei23RodineiRodinei
Willian Arão15W. ArãoWillian Arão
Luan Peres14L. PeresLuan Peres
G. Escobar31G. EscobarG. Escobar
Gustavo Henrique Pereira48G. Henrique PereiraGustavo Henrique Pereira
C. Oliva28C. OlivaC. Oliva
Gabriel Bontempo8G. BontempoGabriel Bontempo
B. Rollheiser32B. RollheiserB. Rollheiser
Thaciano16ThacianoThaciano
Gabriel Barbosa9G. BarbosaGabriel Barbosa
Gabriel Delfim1G. DelfimGabriel Delfim
A. Preciado23A. PreciadoA. Preciado
Lyanco13LyancoLyanco
Vitor Hugo14V. HugoVitor Hugo
Renan Lodi6R. LodiRenan Lodi
A. Franco21A. FrancoA. Franco
Maycon8MayconMaycon
K. Castaño15K. CastañoK. Castaño
Fred7FredFred
M. Cassierra9M. CassierraM. Cassierra
Bernard11BernardBernard

Santos Substitutes

27D. FernandesF
57NadsonF
17G. CaballeroF
45LimaM
6ArthurM
42João AlencarD
5João SchmidtM
34João PauloG
30M. TercerosM
38Rafael GonzagaD
18Igor ViniciusD
26João Paulo AnaniasD

Atletico-MG Substitutes

19ReinierM
39Mamady CisseM
40VitãoD
10Gustavo ScarpaM
30Victor HugoM
5AlexsanderM
27A. MindaF
2NatanaelD
36K. PasciniD
92DuduF
31RobertG
17Igor GomesM

Match Stats

SantosAtletico-MG
42%Ball Possession58%
6Corner Kicks2
14Total Shots9
7Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box5
5Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots3
9Fouls8
1Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves5
416Total Passes573
342Passes Accurate494
8Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

SantosSantos
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
1762Elo Rating 1744
1.72Attack 1.42
2.34Defense 1.58
83%Hit Rate 58%
16.7Shots per Game 12.4
5.8Shots on Target 4.4
6.2Corners per Game 3.8
2.4Cards per Game 0.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend23% in H2H
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

SantosSantos
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Santos 46%Draw 37%17% Atletico-MG
1.45Avg Goals
23%BTTS Rate
0%Over 2.5

Referee Profile

Alexis Herrera, Venezuela · 27 matches analysed

4.4Avg Yellows
4.7Avg Cards
24.5Avg Fouls
Stricter than 65% of referees analysed

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Group B

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Atletico-MGAtletico-MG63128:6+210WWDLW
2CiencianoCienciano62225:7-28DLLWW
3JuventudJuventud614110:7+37DDDWL
4Puerto CabelloPuerto Cabello62136:9-37LDWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Atletico-MGAtletico-MG68:610
2CiencianoCienciano65:78
3JuventudJuventud610:77
4Puerto CabelloPuerto Cabello66:97

Group D

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Deportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta61506:5+18WDDDD
2SantosSantos61418:6+27WDDDD
3San LorenzoSan Lorenzo61416:5+17LDDDW
4Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca61323:7-46LDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Deportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta66:58
2SantosSantos68:67
3San LorenzoSan Lorenzo66:57
4Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca63:76
Promotion

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

Santos vs Atletico-MG Prediction

As a knockout-stage CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

ScorePredicts covers CONMEBOL Sudamericana across every knockout round. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Santos have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Santos and Atletico-MG have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.45 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.