Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

Arena da Baixada, Curitiba·Ramon Abatti Abel, Brazil 04/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.33
SignalGOODModel45%SurpriseMediumGap-5.0%
Atletico Paranaense Rest
5 days
Vasco DA Gama Rest
3 days

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama: the result in context

Vasco DA Gama beat Atletico Paranaense 3-1 in the Serie A on 4 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 7 previous meetings produced 1.9 goals a game. Atletico Paranaense tend to win more corners, 8.3 a game to 3.1 for Vasco DA Gama.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.21
X
28%3.47
2
31%3.20
Double Chance
1X
69%1.33
X2
59%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.62
No
43%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.41 + 1.1 = 2.51
Over 1.5
76%1.25
Over 2.5
52%1.80
Over 3.5
31%3.00
Under 1.5
24%3.90
Under 2.5
48%2.00
Under 3.5
69%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4.3 = 10
Over 8.5
65%1.33
Over 9.5
53%1.58
Over 10.5
42%1.98
Under 8.5
35%2.96
Under 9.5
47%2.25
Under 10.5
58%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.4 = 4.4
Over 3.5
63%1.48
Over 4.5
44%2.20
Under 3.5
37%2.58
Under 4.5
56%1.63

Match Events

1'JadsonRoughing
22'S. MendozaAssist: Luiz Gustavo
46'Brenner INBruno Duarte out
46'S. Sosa INF. Colidio out
46'S. Mendoza INJoao Cruz out
55'A. LescanoHolding
61'F. AguirreOGAssist: Cuiabano
63'Bruno DuarteAssist: J. Rodriguez
67'Gabriel PereiraAssist: F. Colidio
69'Jadson INJ. Portilla out
69'F. Aguirre INLeozinho out
75'A. Gomez INJair out
75'A. Lescano INRamon Rique out
77'K. ViverosUnsportsmanlike conduct
86'K. A. Calderon Vargas INJ. Rivaldo out
87'G. Benavidez INGilberto out
89'J. Rodriguez INPaulo Henrique out
90+2'Dantas
90+4'Arthur DiasRoughing

Lineups

Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1
Vasco DA Gama
3-5-2
Avg rating6.35
Avg rating6.81
Mycael5.31Mycael
Dantas5.925Dantas
Juan Felipe Aguirre5.233J. Felipe Aguirre
Arthur Dias6.24A. Dias
Gastón Benavídez6.329G. Benavídez
Jádson6.716Jádson
Luiz GustavoC6.914L. Gustavo
Lucas Esquivel6.937L. Esquivel
Steven Mendoza7.77S. Mendoza
Kerwin Vargas6.618K. Vargas
Kevin Viveros5.99K. Viveros
Léo Jardim6.21L. Jardim
Gabriel Pereira7.655G. Pereira
Alan Saldivia7.34A. Saldivia
Robert Renan6.330R. Renan
Puma Rodríguez7.22P. Rodríguez
Alan Lescano6.722A. Lescano
Santiago Sosa6.95S. Sosa
Thiago MendesC6.723T. Mendes
Cuiabano7.766Cuiabano
Andrés Gómez6.011A. Gómez
Brenner6.620Brenner

Atletico Paranaense Substitutes

23Santos
12Gilberto87'for G. Benavidez
55Bruno Baldini
6Leonardo Derik
53Dudu
5Felipinho
10Bruno Zapelli
27Juan Portilla69'for Jadson6.7
21Leozinho69'for F. Aguirre6.3
8João Cruz46'for S. Mendoza6.3
19Jorge Rivaldo86'for K. A. Calderon Vargas
70Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno

Vasco DA Gama Substitutes

13Daniel Fuzato
96Paulo Henrique89'for J. Rodriguez
6Lucas Piton
43Lucas Freitas
83Ramon Rique75'for A. Lescano6.3
8Jair75'for A. Gomez6.3
17Nuno Moreira
3Tchê Tchê
9Facundo Colidio46'for S. Sosa7.0
28Adson
19Bruno Duarte46'for Brenner63'7.3
7David

Match Stats

Atletico ParanaenseVasco DA Gama
51%Ball Possession49%
7Corner Kicks0
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
15Total Shots7
4Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal3
5Shots Inside Box5
10Shots Outside Box2
6Blocked Shots1
11Fouls17
0Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves3
520Total Passes497
438Passes Accurate427
84%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
1673Elo Rating 1742
1.03Attack 1.64
1.07Defense 0.97
14%Hit Rate 44%
15.2Shots per Game 12.0
4.1Shots on Target 3.0
8.3Corners per Game 3.1
3.0Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3Wins · 43%
Draws114%
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3Wins · 43%
1.9Avg Goals
43%Both teams scored3 of 7
43%3+ goals3 of 7

Previous meetings

Serie A11/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaAtletico Paranaense
10
Copa Do Brasil12/09/2024
Atletico ParanaenseVasco DA Gama
4251
Copa Do Brasil30/08/2024
Vasco DA GamaAtletico Paranaense
21
Serie A27/08/2024
Vasco DA GamaAtletico Paranaense
21
Serie A05/05/2024
Atletico ParanaenseVasco DA Gama
10
Serie A25/11/2023
Atletico ParanaenseVasco DA Gama
00
Serie A23/07/2023
Vasco DA GamaAtletico Paranaense
02

Referee Profile

Ramon Abatti Abel246 matches

4.76Cards per match
4.50Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
29.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ramon Abatti Abel4.76
Other referees5.11

4.76 cards a match, 0.35 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.11).

Cards come from 183 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th and Vasco DA Gama 13th, 13 points apart. League goal record so far: Atletico Paranaense 51-43, Vasco DA Gama 43-50. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.