Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction

Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro·Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento, Brazil 25/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
57%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Over 4.5
1.89
SignalNEUTRALModel40%SurpriseMediumGap+9.5%
Botafogo Rest
3 days
Atletico Paranaense Rest
9 days

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense: the result in context

Atletico Paranaense beat Botafogo 3-2 in the Serie A on 25 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Atletico Paranaense tend to win more corners, 8.3 a game to 5.9 for Botafogo.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%2.45
X
24%3.25
2
39%2.90
Double Chance
1X
61%1.38
X2
63%1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.70
No
47%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.21 + 1.09 = 2.30
Over 1.5
73%1.29
Over 2.5
46%1.92
Over 3.5
23%3.25
Under 1.5
27%3.45
Under 2.5
54%1.88
Under 3.5
77%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.8 = 10
Over 8.5
66%1.43
Over 9.5
53%1.76
Over 10.5
39%2.15
Under 8.5
34%2.55
Under 9.5
47%1.98
Under 10.5
61%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.7 = 5.5
Over 3.5
79%1.19
Over 4.5
64%1.48
Under 3.5
21%3.50
Under 4.5
36%2.37

Match Events

11'Joao Cruz
13'K. ViverosAssist: Dantas
35'Kauan ToledoHolding
46'Kauan Toledo INJunior Santos out
46'Leozinho INK. A. Calderon Vargas out
46'Luiz Gustavo INJ. Portilla out
61'Joao Cruz INDudu Kogitzki out
63'C. Medina INK. Barria out
63'Allan INHuguinho out
68'EdenilsonUnsportsmanlike conduct
72'Edenilson INS. Rodriguez out
77'DantasFoul
78'K. ViverosAssist: K. A. Calderon Vargas
80'A. Montoro INMatheus Martins out
85'K. Viveros INRenan Peixoto out
85'S. Rodriguez
90+2'S. RodriguezAssist: Danilo Pereira

Lineups

Botafogo
4-2-3-1Coach: Franclim Carvalho
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Coach: Joao Correia
Avg rating6.58
Avg rating7.03
Gabriel Batista5.312G. Batista
Vitinho6.72Vitinho
Nahuel Ferraresi6.95N. Ferraresi
Gabriel Justino6.234G. Justino
Alex TellesC6.213A. Telles
Cristian Medina6.26C. Medina
Allan6.925Allan
Edenilson6.788Edenilson
Álvaro Montoro6.310Á. Montoro
Kauan Toledo5.959K. Toledo
Danilo7.09Danilo
SantosC8.923Santos
Dantas7.025Dantas
Juan Felipe Aguirre6.933J. Felipe Aguirre
Arthur Dias7.34A. Dias
Gastón Benavídez6.929G. Benavídez
Jádson6.616Jádson
Luiz Gustavo6.614L. Gustavo
Steven Mendoza6.97S. Mendoza
Leozinho6.521Leozinho
João Cruz6.78J. Cruz
Kevin Viveros8.39K. Viveros

Botafogo Substitutes

7Júnior Santos46'for Kauan Toledo6.7
75Huguinho63'for Allan6.6
37Kadir Barría63'for C. Medina6.6
23Santiago Rodríguez72'for Edenilson85'90+2'8.2
11Matheus Martins80'for A. Montoro6.9
62Cléber Lucas
32Rhyan Carvalho
42Kadu Santos
4Mateo Ponte
21Marçal
77Lucas Villalba
91Domingos Andrade

Atletico Paranaense Substitutes

18Kerwin Vargas46'for Leozinho7.7
27Juan Portilla46'for Luiz Gustavo6.5
53Dudu61'replaced by Joao Cruz6.3
70Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno85'for K. Viveros6.3
1Mycael
2Gilberto Junior
3Léo
22Carlos Terán
47Chiqueti
5Felipinho
10Bruno Zapelli
19Jorge Rivaldo

Match Stats

BotafogoAtletico Paranaense
56%Ball Possession44%
13Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards1
32Total Shots7
8Shots on Goal6
14Shots off Goal1
16Shots Inside Box5
16Shots Outside Box2
10Blocked Shots0
12Fouls9
2Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves6
488Total Passes412
432Passes Accurate346
89%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

BotafogoBotafogo
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
1624Elo Rating 1673
0.81Attack 1.03
1.82Defense 1.07
44%Hit Rate 14%
14.5Shots per Game 15.2
4.6Shots on Target 4.1
5.9Corners per Game 8.3
1.4Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

BotafogoBotafogo
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

BotafogoBotafogo3Wins · 33%
Draws222%
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense4Wins · 45%
2.4Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
33%3+ goals3 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie A30/03/2026
Atletico ParanaenseBotafogo
41
Serie A05/10/2024
Atletico ParanaenseBotafogo
01
Serie A20/06/2024
BotafogoAtletico Paranaense
11
Serie A22/10/2023
BotafogoAtletico Paranaense
11
Serie A03/06/2023
Atletico ParanaenseBotafogo
10
Copa Do Brasil01/06/2023
BotafogoAtletico Paranaense
2140
Copa Do Brasil18/05/2023
Atletico ParanaenseBotafogo
32
Serie A13/11/2022
Atletico ParanaenseBotafogo
30
Serie A24/07/2022
BotafogoAtletico Paranaense
20

Recent Form

BotafogoBotafogo
4W3D3L
21/08/2026
BotafogoCienciano
10
W
16/08/2026
VitoriaBotafogo
10
L
14/08/2026
CiencianoBotafogo
61
L
09/08/2026
BotafogoFluminense
11
D
26/07/2026
CruzeiroBotafogo
01
W
24/07/2026
BotafogoVitoria
00
D
17/07/2026
BotafogoSantos
21
W
30/05/2026
BahiaBotafogo
21
L
28/05/2026
Caracas FCBotafogo
13
W
23/05/2026
Sao PauloBotafogo
11
D

Referee Profile

Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento41 matches

5.00Cards per match
4.77Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
27.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento5.00
Other referees4.89

5.00 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.89).

Cards come from 13 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th and Botafogo 11th, 12 points apart. League goal record so far: Botafogo 46-53, Atletico Paranaense 51-43. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.