Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund·Robert Schroder 27/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel69%SurpriseMediumGap-4.5%
Borussia Dortmund Rest
3 days
Werder Bremen Rest
3 days

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: result, form and history

Borussia Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 3-2 in the DFB Pokal on 27 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Borussia Dortmund have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.9 goals a game. Borussia Dortmund tend to win more corners, 9.5 a game to 4.7 for Werder Bremen.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.40
X
18%5.15
2
17%6.64
Double Chance
1X
83%1.11
X2
35%2.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.52
No
42%2.38
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.48 + 0.87 = 3.35
Over 1.5
85%1.08
Over 2.5
66%1.34
Over 3.5
46%1.90
Under 1.5
15%7.00
Under 2.5
34%3.10
Under 3.5
54%1.90
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

6'Serhou GuirassyAssist: Julian Ryerson
17'Carney ChukwuemekaAssist: Jobe Bellingham
24'Amos PieperFoul
49'Joey VeermanFoul
57'Arthur Augusto de Matos SoaresFoul
59'Dariusz Stalmach INLudovit Reis out
59'Cédric Itten INNiclas Füllkrug out
59'Eren Dinkci INMitchell Weiser out
59'Marco Grüll INSenne Lynen out
64'Julian RyersonFoul
65'Niclas Füllkrug(Penalty)
68'Niclas FüllkrugAssist: Youri Regeer
71'Joey Veerman INMarcel Sabitzer out
71'Carney Chukwuemeka INEthan Nwaneri out
71'Julian Ryerson INDaniel Svensson out
84'Serhou Guirassy INFábio Silva out
90+3'Marcel Sabitzer

Lineups

Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1Coach: N. Kovač
Werder Bremen
4-2-3-1Coach: D. Thioune
Avg rating6.88
Avg rating6.33
G. Kobel7.11G. Kobel
Kouakou Joane Gadou7.322K. Joane Gadou
W. Anton7.23W. Anton
N. Schlotterbeck7.44N. Schlotterbeck
J. Ryerson6.926J. Ryerson
J. Veerman6.625J. Veerman
F. Nmecha6.38F. Nmecha
M. Beier6.214M. Beier
J. Bellingham7.07J. Bellingham
C. Chukwuemeka7.317C. Chukwuemeka
S. Guirassy8.09S. Guirassy
K. Hein5.51K. Hein
Arthur5.613Arthur
A. Pieper6.15A. Pieper
M. Friedl6.232M. Friedl
Mick Schmetgens6.833M. Schmetgens
Dariusz Stalmach5.823D. Stalmach
Y. Regeer6.944Y. Regeer
E. Dinkçi6.118E. Dinkçi
Chuky San José6.120C. San José
M. Grüll7.217M. Grüll
C. Itten6.526C. Itten

Borussia Dortmund Substitutes

30P. Drewes
40S. Inacio
39F. Mané
41M. Albert
18E. Nwaneri71'for Carney Chukwuemeka6.0
49L. Reggiani
20M. Sabitzer71'for Joey Veerman90+3'7.2
21Fábio Silva84'for Serhou Guirassy6.5
24D. Svensson71'for Julian Ryerson6.4

Werder Bremen Substitutes

38P. Erevbenagie
10N. Füllkrug59'for Cédric Itten65'68'8.2
14S. Lynen59'for Marco Grüll5.9
15L. Reis59'for Dariusz Stalmach5.9
30A. Schlager
34D. Soylu
8M. Weiser59'for Eren Dinkci6.3
3O. Wójcik
36Mats Ole Heitmann

Match Stats

Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
57%Ball Possession43%
4Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
12Total Shots12
4Shots on Goal6
6Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box7
5Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots0
14Fouls9
1Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves1
609Total Passes478
525Passes Accurate392
9Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
1939Elo Rating 1752
1.01Attack 2.29
2.32Defense 1.14
50%Hit Rate 44%
16.3Shots per Game 16.1
5.9Shots on Target 8.0
9.5Corners per Game 4.7
1.2Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+187 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.36 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.5 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund6Wins · 60%
Draws330%
Werder BremenWerder Bremen1Wins · 10%
2.9Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga09/10/2026
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
22
Bundesliga16/05/2026
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
02
Bundesliga13/01/2026
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
30
Bundesliga25/01/2025
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
22
Bundesliga31/08/2024
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
00
Bundesliga09/03/2024
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
12
Bundesliga20/10/2023
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
10
Bundesliga11/02/2023
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
02
Bundesliga20/08/2022
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
23
Bundesliga18/04/2021
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
41

Referee Profile

Robert Schroder140 matches

4.36Cards per match
4.17Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Robert Schroder4.35
Other referees4.21

4.35 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.21).

Cards come from 134 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 64
Round of 32
Waldhof Mannheim00
1. FC Kaiserslautern01
After extra time
Preußen Münster1
Karlsruher SC2
SC St. Tönis0
Eintracht Frankfurt11
SV Wehen0
Bayer Leverkusen4
Erzgebirge Aue0
1899 Hoffenheim4
MSV Duisburg1
SV Elversberg3
Hemelingen1
Hannover 969
Lüneburger SK Hansa0
Werder Bremen3
Eintracht Trier0
RB Leipzig6
TSV 1860 München0
Holstein Kiel2
SSV Jeddeloh5
1. FC Heidenheim2
Bahlinger SC0
1. FC Magdeburg4
Westfalia Rhynern0
Dynamo Dresden6
FC Carl Zeiss Jena1
SV Darmstadt 982
Krieschow0
FSV Mainz 059
Schott Mainz0
Borussia Mönchengladbach5
Phönix Lübeck2
SC Paderborn 074
Rot-Weiß Essen2
FC St. Pauli0
Altglienicke25
VfL Wolfsburg26
On penalties
Verl0
Hamburger SV3
Würzburger Kickers1
1. FC Köln2
HEBC0
Borussia Dortmund5
VfL Osnabrück1
Bayern München4

About the Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen forecast

As a knockout tie in the DFB Pokal, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About DFB Pokal

More DFB Pokal fixtures and forecasts are on the DFB Pokal Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.