Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo Prediction
Brazil · Regular Season - 29
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseMediumGap-8.3%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.73
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+9.3%
Cruzeiro Rest
17 days
Sao Paulo Rest
5 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
153%1.75
X26%3.65
221%4.60
Double Chance
1X79%1.18
X247%2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes52%1.83
No48%1.87
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.57 + 0.98 = 2.55
Over 1.573%1.29
Over 2.549%1.96
Over 3.529%3.40
Under 1.527%3.40
Under 2.551%1.85
Under 3.571%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 5.3 = 10.3
Over 8.565%1.44
Over 9.554%1.74
Over 10.544%2.20
Under 8.535%2.50
Under 9.546%1.96
Under 10.556%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.4 = 4.4
Over 3.564%1.29
Over 4.545%1.59
Under 3.536%3.40
Under 4.555%2.27
Match Events
21'WendellFoul
24'Gabriel RojasFoul
44'Kaio JorgeAssist: Matheus Pereira
45'Lucas Romer INZé Lucas out
45'Jose Monteiro INAldemir Ferreira out
57'Zé Lucas
58'Gabriel Rojas INMatías Viña out
63'Aldemir Ferreira INVictor Sá out
64'Pablo Maia INPedro Ferreira out
64'Marcos Antonio INNewton out
68'Bruno Rodrigues INKeny arroyo out
72'Matheus PereiraFoul
78'Damian Bobadilla INDjhordney Ferreira out
85'Kaio Jorge INMatheus Henrique out
85'Gerson INLuciano Rodríguez out
Lineups
CruzeiroSao Paulo
3-4-3Coach: Dorival JúniorAvg ratingAvg rating
81O. Eleodoro Rezende Costa
12William
43J. Marcelo
34Jonathan
27G. Rojas
29L. Romero
8Gerson
9B. Rodrigues
10M. Pereira
38F. Morais
19K. Jorge
31C. Coronel
2R. Tolói
5R. Arboleda
35Sabino
32P. Lima
29P. Maia
8M. Antônio
18Wendell
16D. Bobadilla
9J. Calleri
37ArturCruzeiro Substitutes
84Kelvin Vinicius Barbosa Coutinho
99K. Arroyo68'for Bruno Rodrigues
23Fágner
20Wesley Gassova
5Zé Lucas45'for Lucas Romer57'
2Kauã Moraes
11Marquinhos
1Cássio
97L. Rodríguez85'for Gerson
16Lucas Silva
6M. Viña58'for Gabriel Rojas
7Matheus Henrique85'for Kaio Jorge
Sao Paulo Substitutes
19Lucas Ramon
58Pedro Henrique Bezerra Araújo
43G. Santana
48D. Ferreira78'for Damian Bobadilla
46Pedro Ferreira64'for Pablo Maia
17André Silva
54Osorio Luis
41João Pedro Pantiga Gomes
49Ryan Francisco
27Victor Sá63'replaced by Aldemir Ferreira
11Ferreira45'for Jose Monteiro63'for Victor Sá
28Newton64'for Marcos Antonio
Match Stats
CruzeiroSao Paulo 54%Ball Possession46%
8Corner Kicks8
2Yellow Cards1
23Total Shots19
9Shots on Goal3
9Shots off Goal9
15Shots Inside Box11
8Shots Outside Box8
5Blocked Shots7
12Fouls20
1Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves7
469Total Passes389
401Passes Accurate319
19Free Kicks11
Team Comparison
CruzeiroSao Paulo1774Elo Rating 1681
2.56Attack 1.03
1.10Defense 2.05
63%Hit Rate 64%
17.1Shots per Game 15.1
7.7Shots on Target 4.0
6.1Corners per Game 6.5
2.4Cards per Game 2.0
Game State Tendencies
Cruzeiro- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Sao Paulo- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings, all competitions
Cruzeiro2Wins · 29%Draws114%
Sao Paulo4Wins · 57%
4Wins · 57%1.9Avg Goals
29%Both teams scored2 of 7
14%3+ goals1 of 7
Previous meetings
04/04/2026Sao PauloCruzeiro41
31/08/2025CruzeiroSao Paulo10
13/04/2025Sao PauloCruzeiro11
15/09/2024CruzeiroSao Paulo01
02/06/2024Sao PauloCruzeiro20
03/11/2023Sao PauloCruzeiro10
25/06/2023CruzeiroSao Paulo10
Recent Form
Cruzeiro4W2D4L
20/09/2026
VitoriaCruzeiro
SantosCruzeiro
Atletico-MGCruzeiro
Vasco DA GamaCruzeiroCruzeiroAtletico-MGCruzeiro
FlamengoFlamengoCruzeiro
CorinthiansCruzeiroCruzeiroFlamengo
VitoriaCruzeiro13
W13/09/2026SantosCruzeiro21
L06/09/2026Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense
02/09/2026CruzeiroAtletico Paranaense31
WAtletico-MGCruzeiro21
L30/08/2026Vasco DA GamaCruzeiro31
L26/08/2026CruzeiroAtletico-MG11
D23/08/2026CruzeiroFlamengo21
W20/08/2026FlamengoCruzeiro21
L17/08/2026CorinthiansCruzeiro12
W13/08/2026CruzeiroFlamengo11
DSao Paulo4W2D4L
03/10/2026Sao PauloSantosSao Paulo
InternacionalSao Paulo
Boca Juniors
PalmeirasSao PauloBoca JuniorsSao PauloSao PauloAtletico-MGSao Paulo
RB Bragantino
Chapecoense-scSao PauloSao Paulo
Bolívar
Sao PauloSantos12
L20/09/2026Sao PauloInternacional10
W16/09/2026Sao PauloBoca Juniors11
D12/09/2026PalmeirasSao Paulo20
L09/09/2026Boca JuniorsSao Paulo10
L05/09/2026Sao PauloAtletico-MG20
W30/08/2026Sao PauloRB Bragantino21
W23/08/2026Chapecoense-scSao Paulo10
L19/08/2026Sao PauloBolívar31
W16/08/2026Sao Paulo
Coritiba
Sao PauloCoritiba11
DReferee Profile
5.07Cards per match
4.84Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.5Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.07 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.06).
Cards come from 254 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61:25 | +36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54:22 | +32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49:37 | +12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50:46 | +4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49:39 | +10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42:35 | +7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 44:39 | +5 | 49 | LWLLW |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48:46 | +2 | 45 | WLDWW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 36:35 | +1 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 39:36 | +3 | 41 | DWDLL |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 44:48 | -4 | 39 | WDLLW |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38:49 | -11 | 39 | LDLLD |
| 13 | Vitoria | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 34:45 | -11 | 37 | DLWLD |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36:44 | -8 | 36 | WLDWD |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 36:43 | -7 | 35 | LDWWW |
| 16 | Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 32:39 | -7 | 33 | DLLLL |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 33:40 | -7 | 32 | LDWLW |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34:44 | -10 | 31 | LDDDL |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34:49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30:62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 31 | 61:25 | 67 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 54:22 | 66 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 49:37 | 53 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 50:46 | 51 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 31 | 49:39 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 42:35 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 44:39 | 49 |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 48:46 | 45 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 36:35 | 42 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 31 | 39:36 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 31 | 44:48 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 38:49 | 39 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 31 | 34:45 | 37 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 36:44 | 36 |
| 15 | Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 36:43 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 31 | 32:39 | 33 |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 33:40 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 34:44 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 31 | 34:49 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 30:62 | 18 |
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This match
About the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo in the Serie A table
In the Serie A table, Cruzeiro are 4th and Sao Paulo 9th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Cruzeiro 50-46, Sao Paulo 36-35. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.