Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Chapecoense-sc
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Sao Paulo
Arena Condá, Chapecó·Rafael Rodrigo Klein, Brazil 23/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 5.5
1.72
SignalGOODModel40%SurpriseMediumGap+13.2%
Chapecoense-sc Rest
7 days
Sao Paulo Rest
4 days

Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo: the result in context

Chapecoense-sc beat Sao Paulo 1-0 in the Serie A on 23 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 3 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game. Sao Paulo tend to win more corners, 6.8 a game to 4.1 for Chapecoense-sc.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
34%3.73
X
26%3.28
2
40%2.05
Double Chance
1X
60%1.75
X2
66%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.83
No
44%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.06 + 1.28 = 2.34
Over 1.5
72%1.35
Over 2.5
46%2.10
Over 3.5
24%3.75
Under 1.5
28%3.10
Under 2.5
54%1.74
Under 3.5
76%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.6 = 9.4
Over 8.5
55%1.36
Over 9.5
44%1.66
Over 10.5
30%2.02
Under 8.5
45%2.76
Under 9.5
56%2.10
Under 10.5
70%1.70
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2 = 4.2
Over 3.5
52%1.46
Over 4.5
36%1.88
Under 3.5
48%2.40
Under 4.5
64%1.81

Match Events

26'Bruno PachecoAssist: Giovanni Augusto
31'Jonathan Calleri INGustavo Santana out
46'Danielzinho INMarcos Antônio out
58'Dylan Borrero INMaurício Garcez out
62'MarcinhoFoul
65'Heitor INEverton out
65'Lucas Ramon INNewton out
66'Pablo Maia INFerreirinha out
72'LucianoArgument
74'Yago FelipeFoul
74'Yago Felipe INFernando out
74'Giovanni Augusto INBruno Matias out
74'Tulio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira INFranco Rossi out
76'Cauly INPedro Ferreira out
88'CamiloTime wasting

Lineups

Chapecoense-sc
4-4-2Coach: Lacerda Rafael
Sao Paulo
4-2-3-1Coach: Junior Dorival
Avg rating6.91
Avg rating6.86
Anderson8.298Anderson
Heitor6.65Heitor
Kauan7.321Kauan
Eduardo DomaC7.33E. Doma
Bruno Pacheco8.091B. Pacheco
Dylan Borrero6.677D. Borrero
Camilo6.627Camilo
Yago Felipe6.388Y. Felipe
Marcinho6.27Marcinho
Tulio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira6.39T. Eduardo Silva de Oliveira
Giovanni Augusto7.210G. Augusto
Rafael7.523Rafael
Lucas Ramon6.719L. Ramon
Domingos Duarte7.922D. Duarte
Sabino7.335Sabino
Iago Borduchi6.712I. Borduchi
Danielzinho6.594Danielzinho
Pablo Maia6.929P. Maia
Artur6.637Artur
Luciano6.510Luciano
Cauly6.680Cauly
Jonathan CalleriC6.69J. Calleri

Chapecoense-sc Substitutes

31Maurício Garcez58'for Dylan Borrero7.3
26Everton65'for Heitor6.9
12Fernando74'for Yago Felipe6.6
16Bruno Matias74'for Giovanni Augusto6.9
29Franco Rossi74'for Tulio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira6.3
30Matheus
15Rafael Thyere
97Ênio
80Miguel Carvalho
70Rubens Tadeu
19David Antunes
18Neto Pessoa

Sao Paulo Substitutes

43Gustavo Santana31'for Jonathan Calleri6.5
8Marcos Antônio46'for Danielzinho7.3
28Newton65'for Lucas Ramon6.6
11Ferreirinha66'for Pablo Maia6.9
46Pedro Ferreira76'for Cauly6.7
31Carlos Coronel
20Aurélio Buta
18Wendell
54Luis Osorio
34Tetê
48Djhordney Ferreira
17André Silva

Match Stats

Chapecoense-scSao Paulo
23%Ball Possession77%
7Corner Kicks3
4Yellow Cards1
13Total Shots22
4Shots on Goal5
2Shots off Goal10
9Shots Inside Box13
4Shots Outside Box9
7Blocked Shots7
17Fouls7
0Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves3
236Total Passes791
167Passes Accurate708
71%Pass Accuracy90%

Team Comparison

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
Sao PauloSao Paulo
1506Elo Rating 1666
0.80Attack 1.10
0.85Defense 1.98
19%Hit Rate 31%
10.9Shots per Game 15.5
3.3Shots on Target 4.5
4.1Corners per Game 6.8
2.1Cards per Game 3.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Sao PauloSao Paulo
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc0Wins · 0%
Draws267%
Sao PauloSao Paulo1Wins · 33%
2.0Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
0%3+ goals0 of 3

Previous meetings

Serie A13/03/2026
Sao PauloChapecoense-sc
20
Serie A03/10/2021
Chapecoense-scSao Paulo
11
Serie A17/06/2021
Sao PauloChapecoense-sc
11

Referee Profile

Rafael Rodrigo Klein205 matches

5.44Cards per match
5.11Yellow cards per match
0.33Red cards per match
28.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Rafael Rodrigo Klein5.44
Other referees5.22

5.44 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.22).

Cards come from 140 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Sao Paulo are 10th and Chapecoense-sc 20th, 23 points apart. League goal record so far: Chapecoense-sc 33-68, Sao Paulo 39-39. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.