Sao Paulo vs Bolívar Prediction

Sao Paulo
3-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Bolívar
MorumBIS, Sao Paulo·Kevin Ortega, Peru 19/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.4 / 10
Value Analysis
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.38
SignalSTRONGModel58%SurpriseMediumGap+13.4%
Sao Paulo Rest
3 days
Bolívar Rest
4 days

Sao Paulo vs Bolívar: result, form and history

Sao Paulo beat Bolívar 3-1 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 19 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Bolívar had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Sao Paulo.

Sao Paulo tend to win more corners, 6.8 a game to 3.4 for Bolívar.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
59%1.40
X
22%4.50
2
19%7.35
Double Chance
1X
82%1.08
X2
41%2.79
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.00
No
55%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.45 + 1.01 = 2.46
Over 1.5
72%1.25
Over 2.5
40%1.79
Over 3.5
21%2.96
Under 1.5
28%3.80
Under 2.5
60%2.01
Under 3.5
79%1.38
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 4 = 8.5
Over 8.5
58%1.38
Over 9.5
45%1.64
Over 10.5
34%2.00
Under 8.5
42%2.73
Under 9.5
55%2.11
Under 10.5
66%1.70
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.6 = 5.1
Over 3.5
73%1.17
Over 4.5
54%1.46
Under 3.5
27%3.70
Under 4.5
46%2.38

Match Events

15'Erwin SaavedraFoul
18'LucianoAssist: Danielzinho
27'DanielzinhoFoul
27'Dairon AsprillaArgument
40'Santiago EcheverriaFoul
58'Aurélio ButaFoul
61'D. AsprillaAssist: Pato Rodriguez
64'Patricio RodríguezFoul
65'Penalty confirmedSabino
68'Jonathan Calleri(Penalty)
71'Pato Rodriguez IND. Batallini out
71'S. Echeverria INB. Arce out
71'E. Saavedra INE. Vaca Moreno out
72'Buta INLucas Ramon out
76'SabinoAssist: Artur
79'LucianoTime wasting
80'Luciano INPablo Maia out
80'Artur INFerreira out
86'Marcos Antonio INVictor Sa out
86'Jonathan Calleri INAndre Silva out
88'Robson Matheus INB. Miranda out
88'D. Romero INM. Cauteruccio out

Lineups

Sao Paulo
4-4-2Coach: Junior Dorival
Bolívar
4-4-2Coach: Alejandro Restrepo
Avg rating6.86
Avg rating6.51
Rafael6.323Rafael
Buta6.320Buta
D. Duarte7.222D. Duarte
Sabino7.635Sabino
Iago Borduchi7.212I. Borduchi
Artur7.337Artur
Newton6.628Newton
Danielzinho7.394Danielzinho
Marcos Antonio6.68M. Antonio
Luciano7.210Luciano
Jonathan CalleriC7.29J. Calleri
C. Lampe7.31C. Lampe
X. Arreaga6.33X. Arreaga
S. Echeverria6.05S. Echeverria
J. SagredoC6.04J. Sagredo
D. Romero6.577D. Romero
C. A. Melgar7.280C. A. Melgar
E. Saavedra6.326E. Saavedra
Pato Rodriguez6.317P. Rodriguez
Robson Matheus6.514R. Matheus
D. Asprilla7.527D. Asprilla

Sao Paulo Substitutes

31Carlos Coronel
19Lucas Ramon72'for Buta
54Luis Osorio
18Wendell
80Cauly
46Pedro Ferreira
29Pablo Maia80'for Luciano6.7
48Djhordney
27Victor Sa86'for Marcos Antonio6.2
11Ferreira80'for Artur6.7
17Andre Silva86'for Jonathan Calleri6.5
49Ryan Francisco

Bolívar Substitutes

13D. Mendez
16L. Zabala
35E. Freita
33F. Mena
99D. Batallini71'for Pato Rodriguez6.3
7J. Velasquez
8L. Paz
20C. Sejas
11B. Miranda88'for Robson Matheus6.5
10B. Arce71'for S. Echeverria6.3
6E. Vaca Moreno71'for E. Saavedra6.7
9M. Cauteruccio88'for D. Romero6.5

Match Stats

Sao PauloBolívar
50%Ball Possession50%
4Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards4
12Total Shots5
4Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal1
10Shots Inside Box1
2Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots2
17Fouls11
1Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves1
399Total Passes412
320Passes Accurate340
80%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

Sao PauloSao Paulo
BolívarBolívar
1666Elo Rating 1715
1.10Attack 1.42
1.98Defense 2.08
31%Hit Rate 83%
15.5Shots per Game 17.1
4.5Shots on Target 6.0
6.8Corners per Game 3.4
3.3Cards per Game 3.1

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Sao PauloSao Paulo
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
BolívarBolívar
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Sao PauloSao Paulo0Wins · 0%
Draws1100%
BolívarBolívar0Wins · 0%
2.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Recent Form

Sao PauloSao Paulo
1W5D4L
16/08/2026
Sao PauloCoritiba
11
D
12/08/2026
BolívarSao Paulo
11
D
08/08/2026
GremioSao Paulo
21
L
26/07/2026
FlamengoSao Paulo
11
D
23/07/2026
Sao PauloAtletico Paranaense
12
L
01/06/2026
RemoSao Paulo
10
L
27/05/2026
Sao PauloBoston River
20
W
23/05/2026
Sao PauloBotafogo
11
D
20/05/2026
Sao PauloMillonarios
11
D
17/05/2026
FluminenseSao Paulo
21
L
BolívarBolívar
7W1D2L
15/08/2026
BolívarSan Antonio Bulo Bulo
41
W
12/08/2026
BolívarSao Paulo
11
D
09/08/2026
AuroraBolívar
24
W
06/08/2026
BolívarOriente Petrolero
21
W
02/08/2026
Always ReadyBolívar
10
L
31/07/2026
GremioBolívar
01
W
26/07/2026
BolívarReal Potosí
21
W
24/07/2026
BolívarGremio
32
W
18/07/2026
BolívarGuabirá
40
W
28/05/2026
BolívarIndepend. Rivadavia
13
L

Referee Profile

Kevin Ortega200 matches

5.39Cards per match
5.06Yellow cards per match
0.33Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Kevin Ortega5.39
Other referees5.26

5.39 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.26).

Cards come from 186 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Sao PauloSao Paulo63306:1+512WDDDW
2O'HigginsO'Higgins63128:6+210WLDWL
3MillonariosMillonarios62227:708LDWDW
4Boston RiverBoston River61055:12-73LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Sao PauloSao Paulo66:112
2O'HigginsO'Higgins68:610
3MillonariosMillonarios67:78
4Boston RiverBoston River65:123
Promotion

About the Sao Paulo vs Bolívar forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Sao Paulo and Bolívar have met only 1 time recently, with 2.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.