Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Prediction

Primera DivisiónUruguay Uruguay · Clausura - 10
Defensor Sporting
2-3
Finished
HT 1-0
Cerro
Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo·Hernan Heras 10/10/2026
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
2-3
Finished
CerroCerro

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalHIGHModel55%SurpriseMediumGap-5.1%
Defensor Sporting Rest
6 days
Cerro Rest
5 days

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro: result, form and history

Cerro beat Defensor Sporting 3-2 in the Primera División on 10 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Defensor Sporting have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
51%1.76
X
29%3.30
2
20%4.37
Double Chance
1X
80%1.18
X2
49%1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%2.05
No
52%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.6 + 0.98 = 2.58
Over 1.5
68%1.40
Over 2.5
44%2.25
Over 3.5
24%4.33
Under 1.5
32%2.75
Under 2.5
56%1.58
Under 3.5
76%1.20
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

12'Damián Suárez
16'Xavier biscayzacu
19'Xavier biscayzacu
22'axel frugone
30'Brahian Alemán
38'Emiliano Rodriguez
45+3'Emiliano Gaston Sosa Viera
46'axel frugone INDiego Abella out
46'Xavier biscayzacu INNicolas Scotti out
46'pablo nongoy INLeonardo Pais out
52'Brian Montenegro
57'Damián Suárez
61'Lucas agazzi
63'Emiliano Rodriguez INbruno morales out
63'Cristian Barros INEzequiel Forclaz out
66'Brahian Alemán INAgustin Miranda out
69'Lucas agazzi INalan torterolo out
71'jairo amaro
72'Nicolas Wunsch
77'Agustin Miranda
81'Brian Montenegro INpablo neris out
81'Nicolas Wunsch INTomás Pozzo out
85'Yonatan Irrazábal
85'pablo neris
86'Alejo Macelli
89'Tomás Pozzo
90'Guillermo De los Santos
90+3'bruno morales(Penalty)

Lineups

Defensor Sporting
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Larriera
Cerro
4-3-3Coach: Alejandro Cappuccio
K. Dawson12K. Dawson
G. Rodriguez4G. Rodriguez
1414f. sorondo
E. Elizalde2E. Elizalde
A. Frugone15A. Frugone
G. Barrios5G. Barrios
G. de los Santos24G. de los Santos
L. Agazzi11L. Agazzi
Nicolás Andrés Wunsch Tomás8N. Andrés Wunsch Tomás
1010X. biscayzacu
B. Montenegro26B. Montenegro
Y. Irrazábal12Y. Irrazábal
D. Suárez22D. Suárez
J. Guasone16J. Guasone
N. Arena21N. Arena
F. Bregante6F. Bregante
J. Amaro31J. Amaro
A. Macelli5A. Macelli
B. Alemán10B. Alemán
C. Barros27C. Barros
E. Rodriguez14E. Rodriguez
P. Nongoy35P. Nongoy

Defensor Sporting Substitutes

20Mateo Caballero
18Lorenzo Cafaro
30E. Cuello
25Diego Abella46'for axel frugone
7N. Medina
9J. Neris81'for Brian Montenegro85'
29T. Pozzo81'for Nicolas Wunsch89'
21N. Scotti46'replaced by Xavier biscayzacu
23B. Simone
22A. Torterolo69'for Lucas agazzi

Cerro Substitutes

11E. Forclaz63'for Cristian Barros
70L. Pais46'for pablo nongoy
32R. Mederos
8A. Miranda66'for Brahian Alemán77'
9B. Morales63'for Emiliano Rodriguez90+3'
17Gianni Rodríguez
7A. Severo
19E. Sosa45+3'
20Mauro Villar
1D. Denis

Match Stats

Defensor SportingCerro
48%Ball Possession52%
5Corner Kicks1
7Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
7Total Shots15
4Shots on Goal7
3Shots off Goal8
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0

Team Comparison

Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
CerroCerro
1454Elo Rating 1469
1.53Attack 1.10
0.74Defense 1.60
0%Hit Rate 23%
6.9Shots per Game 9.5
3.9Shots on Target 4.5
4.3Corners per Game 2.9
3.5Cards per Game 4.5

AI Insights

📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CerroCerro
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting6Wins · 60%
Draws220%
CerroCerro2Wins · 20%
2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura04/08/2026
Defensor SportingCerro
21
Primera División - Apertura05/04/2026
CerroDefensor Sporting
10
Primera División - Apertura23/06/2025
Defensor SportingCerro
21
Primera División - Apertura14/04/2025
Defensor SportingCerro
32
Primera División - Apertura25/02/2024
Defensor SportingCerro
50
Primera División - Apertura08/04/2023
Defensor SportingCerro
11
Segunda División04/12/2021
Defensor SportingCerro
01
Segunda División30/11/2021
CerroDefensor Sporting
12
Segunda División23/09/2021
Defensor SportingCerro
20
Segunda División11/06/2021
CerroDefensor Sporting
00

Recent Form

Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
2W4D4L
03/10/2026
Albion FCDefensor Sporting
32
L
30/09/2026
Defensor SportingPlaza Colonia
01
L
27/09/2026
Defensor SportingDanubio
10
W20/09/2026
Club NacionalDefensor Sporting
32
L13/09/2026
Defensor SportingDeportivo Maldonado
10
W10/09/2026
Cerro LargoDefensor Sporting
11
D
06/09/2026
Central EspanolDefensor Sporting
11
D
29/08/2026
Defensor SportingAtletico Torque
13
L
25/08/2026
Defensor SportingRentistas
00
D
22/08/2026
Cerro LargoDefensor Sporting
11
D
CerroCerro
2W3D5L
04/10/2026
CerroWanderers
02
L
27/09/2026
JuventudCerro
00
D
24/09/2026
CerroDeportivo Maldonado
12
L
19/09/2026
CerroPenarol
12
L
13/09/2026
ProgresoCerro
13
W
10/09/2026
CerroCerrito
02
L
06/09/2026
CerroRacing Montevideo
10
W
01/09/2026
WanderersCerro
11
D
29/08/2026
Boston RiverCerro
11
D
22/08/2026
Liverpool MontevideoCerro
40
L

Referee Profile

Hernan Heras3 matches analysed

5.36Cards per match
5.05Yellow cards per match
0.31Red cards per match
23.1Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 93% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol34198751:27+2464DLWLW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque341861057:40+1760DLDLL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional341841251:41+1058WLLWW
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo341512742:30+1257DWWWD
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo341511845:31+1456LWLDD
7WanderersWanderers341481241:43-250LLLWL
8Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
9JuventudJuventud3410111337:41-441DWLLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo349101532:38-637LDDWL
12Boston RiverBoston River341071733:45-1237WLWWL
13CerroCerro341071728:51-2337DDWLW
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting348121433:43-1036DWLDD
15ProgresoProgreso341051931:47-1635WLLDD
16DanubioDanubio346141428:43-1532DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3451:2764
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3457:4060
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3451:4158
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3442:3057
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3445:3156
7WanderersWanderers3441:4350
8Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
9JuventudJuventud3437:4141
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo3432:3837
12Boston RiverBoston River3433:4537
13CerroCerro3428:5137
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3433:4336
15ProgresoProgreso3431:4735
16DanubioDanubio3428:4332

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol71431414117:61+56143DLWLW
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71421415127:74+53137WLLWW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7133221696:68+28121LWLDD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7129231981:68+13110DWWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71311624111:91+20109DLDLL
7JuventudJuventud7128182582:80+2102DWLLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7126192675:81-697DWLDD
9Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
10Boston RiverBoston River7124202783:84-192WLWWL
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7121232773:79-686LDDWL
12CerroCerro7122183161:93-3283DDWLW
13WanderersWanderers7120213066:90-2481LLLWL
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
15DanubioDanubio7116272869:84-1575DDDLD
16ProgresoProgreso7120143769:107-3874WLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol71117:61143
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71127:74137
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7196:68121
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7181:68110
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71111:91109
7JuventudJuventud7182:80102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7175:8197
9Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
10Boston RiverBoston River7183:8492
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7173:7986
12CerroCerro7161:9383
13WanderersWanderers7166:9081
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
15DanubioDanubio7169:8475
16ProgresoProgreso7169:10774

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol751112:3+916DLWLW
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo73227:5+211LDDWL
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo72414:3+110DWWWD
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo72325:509LWLDD
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol72324:409LDWWD
6CerroCerro73046:10-49DDWLW
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting71336:9-36DWLDD
8Boston RiverBoston River71245:10-55WLWWL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol712:316
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo77:511
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo74:310
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo75:59
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol74:49
6CerroCerro76:109
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting76:96
8Boston RiverBoston River75:105

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931DWWWD
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829DWWLW
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWDDW
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727DLWLW
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124LDWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623DLDLL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522WLLWW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221DWLDD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220LWLDD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520LLLWL
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418DDDLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LDDWL
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617WLWWL
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DWLLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110WLLDD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610DDWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1283120:8+1227LWLDD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1281324:13+1125DLDLL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1272317:12+523WLLWW
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1263318:10+821DWWLW
5PenarolPenarol1264216:8+821DLWLW
6ProgresoProgreso1261513:13019WLLDD
7JuventudJuventud1246212:8+418DWLLL
8CerroCerro1253414:17-318DDWLW
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1244415:13+216DWWWD
10Boston RiverBoston River1243514:15-115WLWWL
11WanderersWanderers1243513:18-515LLLWL
12Albion FCAlbion FC1240815:20-512WWDDW
13DanubioDanubio122466:13-710DDDLD
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo121659:14-59LDDWL
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1223714:23-99DWLDD
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol121296:21-155LDWWD
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1220:827
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1224:1325
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1217:1223
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1218:1021
5PenarolPenarol1216:821
6ProgresoProgreso1213:1319
7JuventudJuventud1212:818
8CerroCerro1214:1718
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1215:1316
10Boston RiverBoston River1214:1515
11WanderersWanderers1213:1815
12Albion FCAlbion FC1215:2012
13DanubioDanubio126:1310
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo129:149
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1214:239
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol126:215
PromotionRelegation

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About the Defensor Sporting vs Cerro forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Defensor Sporting and Cerro in the Primera División table

Cerro and Defensor Sporting are close in the Primera División table, 13th and 14th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Defensor Sporting 33-43, Cerro 28-51. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.