Stoke City vs Hull City Prediction

Stoke City
1-1
After Penalties
HT 1-1AET 0-0PEN 4-5
Hull City
bet365 Stadium, Stoke·John Busby, England 25/08/2026
Stoke CityStoke City
1-1
After Penalties
Hull CityHull City

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
68%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.50
SignalSOLIDModel43%SurpriseHighGap+1.2%
Stoke City Rest
3 days
Hull City Rest
3 days

Stoke City vs Hull City: result, form and history

Hull City beat Stoke City on penalties (5-4) after a 1-1 draw in the League Cup on 25 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Stoke City have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.4 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
32%2.90
X
39%3.25
2
29%2.46
Double Chance
1X
71%1.50
X2
68%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.77
No
48%1.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.6 + 1.27 = 2.87
Over 1.5
83%1.32
Over 2.5
49%2.05
Over 3.5
28%3.50
Under 1.5
17%3.20
Under 2.5
51%1.75
Under 3.5
72%1.28
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

39'R. BozenikAssist: S. Thomas
45'K. DowellAssist: L. Millar
46'E. Galbraith IND. Soumare out
59'J. Hjerto-Dahl INH. Morita out
63'R. Bozenik ING. Hirst out
64'M. Manhoef INS. Gallagher out
64'B. Johnson INB. Lawal out
77'M. Targett INE. Stroud out
77'A. Omur INM. Belloumi out
81'K. Dowell INT. Sellars-Fleming out
81'B. Akintola INR. Slater out
81'L. Giani INF. Anderson out
82'L. HerringtonFoul
90+5'G. HirstFoul

Penalty Shootout4 - 5

1S. Thomas(Penalty)
1H. Morita(Penalty)
2S. Gallagher(Penalty)
2P. McNair(Penalty)
3B. Lawal(Penalty)
3E. Stroud(Penalty)
4G. Hirst(Penalty missed)
4L. Millar(Penalty)
5D. Soumare(Penalty)
5M. Belloumi(Penalty)

Lineups

Stoke City
4-2-3-1Coach: Mark Robins
Hull City
4-2-3-1Coach: Sergej Jakirovic
Avg rating6.82
Avg rating6.76
Joshua Griffiths7.924J. Griffiths
Ben Johnson6.92B. Johnson
Ben WilmotC6.716B. Wilmot
Luke Graham6.35L. Graham
Laurence Giani6.352L. Giani
Ben Pearson6.94B. Pearson
Ethan Galbraith6.68E. Galbraith
Million Manhoef7.242M. Manhoef
Tomáš Rigo6.319T. Rigo
Sorba Thomas7.37S. Thomas
Róbert Boženík7.59R. Boženík
Dillon Phillips6.512D. Phillips
Cody Drameh7.018C. Drameh
Lucas Herrington6.922L. Herrington
Paddy McNair6.917P. McNair
Matt Targett7.023M. Targett
Lucas Gourna-Douath6.729L. Gourna-Douath
Jens Hjertø-Dahl6.514J. Hjertø-Dahl
Abdülkadir Ömür6.333A. Ömür
Kieran Dowell8.526K. Dowell
Liam MillarC7.07L. Millar
David Akintola6.930D. Akintola

Stoke City Substitutes

27Djibril Soumaré46'for E. Galbraith6.9
15George Hirst63'for R. Bozenik90+5'6.3
18Bosun Lawal6.7
20Sam Gallagher64'for M. Manhoef6.6
43Freddie Anderson81'for L. Giani6.7
34Frank Fielding
59Gabriel Kelly
10Jun-Ho Bae
58Tyler Martin

Hull City Substitutes

5Hidemasa Morita59'for J. Hjerto-Dahl6.6
10Mohamed Belloumi77'for A. Omur6.3
21Elliot Stroud77'for M. Targett6.6
27Regan Slater81'for B. Akintola6.3
41Tyrell Sellars-Fleming81'for K. Dowell6.2
19Konstantinos Tzolakis
3Ryan Giles
15John Egan
32Nobel Mendy

Match Stats

Stoke CityHull City
44%Ball Possession56%
1Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards1
10Total Shots18
4Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal8
9Shots Inside Box12
1Shots Outside Box6
1Blocked Shots4
11Fouls6
1Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves3
440Total Passes563
369Passes Accurate498
84%Pass Accuracy88%

Team Comparison

Stoke CityStoke City
Hull CityHull City
1619Elo Rating 1702
1.23Attack 1.11
2.11Defense 1.50
54%Hit Rate 0%
10.5Shots per Game 11.7
2.7Shots on Target 2.9
4.8Corners per Game 4.9
1.4Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

âš½High Goal Expectancy2.87 goals
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Stoke CityStoke City
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Hull CityHull City
  • No tendency data available

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Stoke CityStoke City6Wins · 60%
Draws110%
Hull CityHull City3Wins · 30%
2.4Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Championship01/01/2026
Hull CityStoke City
01
Championship29/11/2025
Stoke CityHull City
12
Championship01/02/2025
Hull CityStoke City
12
Championship20/09/2024
Stoke CityHull City
13
Championship29/03/2024
Hull CityStoke City
02
Championship24/09/2023
Stoke CityHull City
13
Championship11/02/2023
Stoke CityHull City
00
Championship13/09/2022
Hull CityStoke City
03
Championship16/01/2022
Hull CityStoke City
02
Championship25/09/2021
Stoke CityHull City
20

Recent Form

Stoke CityStoke City
3W2D5L
22/08/2026
SouthamptonStoke City
31
L
15/08/2026
Stoke CitySwansea
12
L
08/08/2026
Stoke CityOldham
20
W
01/08/2026
Stoke CityValencia
11
D
28/07/2026
Stoke CityEverton
10
W
21/07/2026
ChesterStoke City
01
W
18/07/2026
CreweStoke City
11
D
10/07/2026
Stoke CitySC Braga
01
L
02/05/2026
Bristol CityStoke City
20
L
25/04/2026
Stoke CityPortsmouth
13
L
Hull CityHull City
6W3D1L
22/08/2026
Hull CityManchester United
20
W
15/08/2026
Hull CityNice
00
D
08/08/2026
Eintracht FrankfurtHull City
20
L
01/08/2026
KasımpaşaHull City
11
D
28/07/2026
RizesporHull City
12
W
25/07/2026
KonyasporHull City
03
W
23/05/2026
Hull CityMiddlesbrough
10
W
11/05/2026
MillwallHull City
02
W
08/05/2026
Hull CityMillwall
00
D
02/05/2026
Hull CityNorwich
21
W

Referee Profile

John Busby200 matches

3.68Cards per match
3.57Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
21.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

John Busby3.68
Other referees3.80

3.68 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.80).

Cards come from 197 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the Stoke City vs Hull City forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.