Stoke City vs Hull City Prediction

League CupEngland England · Round of 64
CupKnockout
Stoke City
1-1
After Penalties
HT 1-1AET 0-0PEN 4-5
Hull City
bet365 Stadium, Stoke· John Busby, England 25/08/2026
Stoke CityStoke City
1-1
After Penalties
Hull CityHull City

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
68%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.50
SignalNEUTRALModel43%RiskHighGap+1.2%
Stoke City Rest
3 days
Hull City Rest
3 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
32%2.90
X
39%3.25
2
29%2.46
Double Chance
1X
71%1.50
X2
68%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.77
No
48%1.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.6 + 1.27 = 2.87
Over 1.5
83%1.32
Over 2.5
49%2.05
Over 3.5
28%3.50
Under 1.5
17%3.20
Under 2.5
51%1.75
Under 3.5
72%1.28
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

39'R. BozenikAssist: S. Thomas
45'K. DowellAssist: L. Millar
46'E. Galbraith IND. Soumare out
59'J. Hjerto-Dahl INH. Morita out
63'R. Bozenik ING. Hirst out
64'M. Manhoef INS. Gallagher out
64'B. Johnson INB. Lawal out
77'M. Targett INE. Stroud out
77'A. Omur INM. Belloumi out
81'K. Dowell INT. Sellars-Fleming out
81'B. Akintola INR. Slater out
81'L. Giani INF. Anderson out
82'L. HerringtonFoul
90+5'G. HirstFoul

Penalty Shootout4 - 5

1S. Thomas(Penalty)
1H. Morita(Penalty)
2S. Gallagher(Penalty)
2P. McNair(Penalty)
3B. Lawal(Penalty)
3E. Stroud(Penalty)
4G. Hirst(Penalty missed)
4L. Millar(Penalty)
5D. Soumare(Penalty)
5M. Belloumi(Penalty)

Lineups

Stoke City
4-2-3-1Coach: Mark Robins
Hull City
4-2-3-1Coach: Sergej Jakirovic
Joshua Griffiths24J. GriffithsJoshua Griffiths
Ben Johnson2B. JohnsonBen Johnson
Ben Wilmot16B. WilmotBen Wilmot
Luke Graham5L. GrahamLuke Graham
Laurence Giani52L. GianiLaurence Giani
Ben Pearson4B. PearsonBen Pearson
Ethan Galbraith8E. GalbraithEthan Galbraith
Million Manhoef42M. ManhoefMillion Manhoef
Tomáš Rigo19T. RigoTomáš Rigo
Sorba Thomas7S. ThomasSorba Thomas
Róbert Boženík9R. BoženíkRóbert Boženík
Dillon Phillips12D. PhillipsDillon Phillips
Cody Drameh18C. DramehCody Drameh
Lucas Herrington22L. HerringtonLucas Herrington
Paddy McNair17P. McNairPaddy McNair
Matt Targett23M. TargettMatt Targett
Lucas Gourna-Douath29L. Gourna-DouathLucas Gourna-Douath
Jens Hjertø-Dahl14J. Hjertø-DahlJens Hjertø-Dahl
Abdülkadir Ömür33A. ÖmürAbdülkadir Ömür
Kieran Dowell26K. DowellKieran Dowell
Liam Millar7L. MillarLiam Millar
David Akintola30D. AkintolaDavid Akintola

Stoke City Substitutes

27Djibril SoumaréM
15George HirstF
18Bosun LawalD
20Sam GallagherF
43Freddie AndersonD
34Frank FieldingG
59Gabriel KellyM
10Jun-Ho BaeM
58Tyler MartinF

Hull City Substitutes

5Hidemasa MoritaM
10Mohamed BelloumiF
21Elliot StroudM
27Regan SlaterM
41Tyrell Sellars-FlemingF
19Konstantinos TzolakisG
3Ryan GilesD
15John EganD
32Nobel MendyD

Match Stats

Stoke CityHull City
44%Ball Possession56%
1Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards1
10Total Shots18
4Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal8
9Shots Inside Box12
1Shots Outside Box6
1Blocked Shots4
12Fouls5
1Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves3
435Total Passes563
364Passes Accurate498
84%Pass Accuracy88%

Team Comparison

Stoke CityStoke City
Hull CityHull City
1593Elo Rating 1713
1.85Attack 0.85
1.94Defense 2.09
63%Hit Rate 17%
14.8Shots per Game 10.6
5.4Shots on Target 3.5
5.3Corners per Game 5.3
2.1Cards per Game 3.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.87 goals
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Stoke CityStoke City
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Hull CityHull City
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.2 in second half)

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Stoke City 61%Draw 0%39% Hull City
2.49Avg Goals
59%BTTS Rate
59%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Stoke CityStoke City
2W1D2L
22/08/2026
SouthamptonStoke City
31
L
15/08/2026
Stoke CitySwansea
12
L
08/08/2026
Stoke CityOldham
20
W
01/08/2026
Stoke CityValencia
11
D
28/07/2026
Stoke CityEverton
10
W
Hull CityHull City
2W2D1L
22/08/2026
Hull CityManchester United
20
W
15/08/2026
Hull CityNice
00
D
08/08/2026
Eintracht FrankfurtHull City
20
L
01/08/2026
KasımpaşaHull City
11
D
28/07/2026
RizesporHull City
12
W

Referee Profile

John Busby, England · 4 matches analysed

3.4Avg Yellows
3.5Avg Cards
21.8Avg Fouls
Stricter than 31% of referees analysed

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Bristol City0
Walsall1
Wolves3
Port Vale0
Wycombe1
Stevenage2
Middlesbrough1
Wrexham0
Cambridge United2
Barnet1
QPR10
Millwall12
On penalties
AFC Wimbledon15
Newport County14
On penalties
Barnsley16
Wigan15
On penalties
Bristol Rovers0
Peterborough1
Bromley14
Reading15
On penalties
Burnley14
Notts County13
On penalties
Burton Albion1
Blackburn2
Cardiff3
Swindon Town2
Crewe2
Accrington ST1
Derby1
Lincoln2
Fleetwood Town1
Chesterfield0
Gillingham0
Luton3
Norwich4
Milton Keynes Dons1
Grimsby1
Blackpool3
Leicester1
Northampton0
Leyton Orient2
Oxford United0
Preston14
Huddersfield13
On penalties
Salford City13
Shrewsbury14
On penalties
Sheffield Wednesday1
Bolton0
Stockport County14
Doncaster15
On penalties
Stoke City2
Oldham0
Swansea0
Birmingham1
West Ham3
Portsmouth1
Bradford2
Rochdale0
Watford1
Crawley Town0
Cheltenham1
Charlton3
Colchester0
Southampton2
Rotherham1
West Brom4
Mansfield Town0
Sheffield Utd3
Plymouth2
Exeter City0
Bournemouth
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Sunderland
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded
Ipswich
Seeded
Coventry
Seeded
Hull City
Seeded
Nottingham Forest
Seeded
Leeds
Seeded
Brentford
Seeded
Newcastle
Seeded
Tottenham
Seeded
Everton
Seeded
Chelsea
Seeded
Fulham
Seeded
Cardiff1
Norwich2
Doncaster1
Middlesbrough3
Barnsley3
Crewe2
Blackpool1
Lincoln4
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Ipswich3
Leicester1
Southampton1
West Ham4
Stevenage0
Reading3
Blackburn1
Sheffield Utd2
Fleetwood Town4
Shrewsbury0
Plymouth2
Coventry4
Sheffield Wednesday0
Wolves2
Stoke City14
Hull City15
On penalties
Walsall05
Leyton Orient06
On penalties
Watford1
Peterborough5
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Birmingham1
Brentford6
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Newcastle3
West Brom2
Tottenham5
Charlton1
Preston0
Everton4
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Bournemouth
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Sunderland
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded
Bournemouth4
Lincoln0
Crystal Palace3
Middlesbrough0
Leyton Orient1
Bradford3
Sunderland1
Hull City0
Millwall0
Newcastle1
Chelsea6
Leeds3
Peterborough37
Barnsley36
On penalties
West Ham2
Fulham3
Liverpool3
Tottenham1
Reading1
Brentford2
Ipswich2
Arsenal4
Everton1
Wolves0
Fleetwood Town1
Sheffield Utd0
Coventry1
Aston Villa3
Manchester United2
Brighton3
Manchester City5
Norwich0
Cardiff1
Norwich2
Doncaster1
Middlesbrough3
Barnsley3
Crewe2
Blackpool1
Lincoln4
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Ipswich3
Leicester1
Southampton1
West Ham4
Stevenage0
Reading3
Blackburn1
Sheffield Utd2
Fleetwood Town4
Shrewsbury0
Plymouth2
Coventry4
Sheffield Wednesday0
Wolves2
Stoke City14
Hull City15
On penalties
Walsall05
Leyton Orient06
On penalties
Watford1
Peterborough5
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Birmingham1
Brentford6
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Newcastle3
West Brom2
Tottenham5
Charlton1
Preston0
Everton4
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Bournemouth
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Sunderland
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

Stoke City vs Hull City Prediction

As a knockout-stage League Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

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Key Factors for This Match

Stoke City have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Stoke City and Hull City have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.49 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.