Mexico vs England Prediction

Mexico
2-3
Finished
HT 1-2
England
Estadio Banorte, Mexico City·A. Faghani 06/07/2026
MexicoMexico
2-3
Finished
EnglandEngland

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
8.0 / 10
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.44
SignalHIGHModel35%SurpriseMediumGap+7.8%
Mexico Rest
5 days
England Rest
4 days

Mexico vs England: the result in context

England beat Mexico 3-2 in the World Cup on 6 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

England tend to win more corners, 5.7 a game to 1.8 for Mexico.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
23%3.10
X
38%3.10
2
39%2.50
Double Chance
1X
61%1.53
X2
77%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.97
No
47%1.77
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.11 + 1.3 = 2.41
Over 1.5
72%1.44
Over 2.5
44%2.38
Over 3.5
24%4.50
Under 1.5
28%2.73
Under 2.5
56%1.57
Under 3.5
76%1.18
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.8 + 4.9 = 8.7
Over 8.5
54%1.91
Over 9.5
45%2.40
Over 10.5
33%3.20
Under 8.5
46%1.82
Under 9.5
55%1.50
Under 10.5
67%1.28
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.8 = 3.6
Over 3.5
49%2.08
Over 4.5
29%3.15
Under 3.5
51%1.67
Under 4.5
71%1.31

Lineups

Mexico
4-3-3Coach: Javier Aguirre
England
4-2-3-1Coach: Thomas Tuchel
Raúl Rangel1R. Rangel
Jorge Sánchez2J. Sánchez
César Montes3C. Montes
Johan Vásquez5J. Vásquez
Jesús Gallardo23J. Gallardo
Gilberto Mora19G. Mora
Erik Lira6E. Lira
Luis Romo7L. Romo
Roberto Alvarado25R. Alvarado
Raúl Jiménez9R. Jiménez
Julián Quiñones16J. Quiñones
Jordan Pickford1J. Pickford
Jarell Quansah26J. Quansah
Ezri Konsa2E. Konsa
Marc Guéhi6M. Guéhi
Nico O'Reilly3N. O'Reilly
Elliot Anderson8E. Anderson
Declan Rice4D. Rice
Bukayo Saka7B. Saka
Jude Bellingham10J. Bellingham
Anthony Gordon18A. Gordon
Harry Kane9H. Kane

Mexico Substitutes

12Carlos Acevedo
13Guillermo Ochoa
15Israel Reyes
20Mateo Chávez
4Edson Álvarez
8Álvaro Fidalgo
17Orbelín Pineda
18Obed Vargas
24Luis Chávez
26Brian Gutiérrez
10Alexis Vega
21César Huerta
11Santiago Giménez
14Armando González
22Guillermo Martínez

England Substitutes

13Dean Henderson
23James Trafford
5John Stones
12Trevoh Chalobah
15Dan Burn
24Reece James
25Djed Spence
14Jordan Henderson
16Kobbie Mainoo
17Morgan Rogers
21Eberechi Eze
11Marcus Rashford
19Ollie Watkins
20Noni Madueke
22Ivan Toney

Team Comparison

MexicoMexico
EnglandEngland
1788Elo Rating 1902
2.03Attack 3.98
2.19Defense 1.94
73%Hit Rate 83%
12.5Shots per Game 18.1
4.0Shots on Target 6.8
1.8Corners per Game 5.7
0.7Cards per Game 1.1

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

MexicoMexico
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.9 in first half)
EnglandEngland
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (2.4 vs 1.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

MexicoMexico
10W0D0L
01/07/2026
MexicoEcuador
20
W
25/06/2026
CzechiaMexico
03
W
19/06/2026
MexicoSouth Korea
10
W
11/06/2026
MexicoSouth Africa
20
W
05/06/2026
MexicoSerbia
51
W
31/05/2026
MexicoAustralia
10
W
23/05/2026
MexicoGhana
20
W
07/07/2025
USAMexico
12
W
03/07/2025
MexicoHonduras
10
W
29/06/2025
MexicoSaudi Arabia
20
W
EnglandEngland
9W1D0L
01/07/2026
EnglandCongo DR
21
W
27/06/2026
PanamaEngland
02
W
23/06/2026
EnglandGhana
00
D
17/06/2026
EnglandCroatia
42
W
10/06/2026
EnglandCosta Rica
30
W
06/06/2026
EnglandNew Zealand
10
W
16/11/2025
AlbaniaEngland
02
W
13/11/2025
EnglandSerbia
20
W
14/10/2025
LatviaEngland
05
W
09/09/2025
SerbiaEngland
05
W

Referee Profile

A. Faghani203 matches

4.07Cards per match
3.93Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
22.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

A. Faghani4.06
Other referees3.96

4.06 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.96).

Cards come from 174 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1MexicoMexico33006:0+69WWW
2South AfricaSouth Africa31112:3-14WDL
3South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
4CzechiaCzechia30122:6-41LDL
#TeamMPGPts
1MexicoMexico36:09
2South AfricaSouth Africa32:34
3South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
4CzechiaCzechia32:61

Group L

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1EnglandEngland32106:2+47WDW
2CroatiaCroatia32015:506WWL
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4PanamaPanama30030:4-40LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1EnglandEngland36:27
2CroatiaCroatia35:56
3GhanaGhana32:24
4PanamaPanama30:40

About the Mexico vs England forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 8.0 out of 10 by our context model. England have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Mexico and England have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.