Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 12
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.34
SignalSOLIDModel43%SurpriseMediumGap-5.6%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Over 4.5
1.91
SignalSOLIDModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Jaguares Rest
4 days
Alianza Valledupar Rest
7 days
Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar: the result in context
Alianza Valledupar beat Jaguares 2-1 in the Primera A on 27 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.9 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
141%2.40
X30%2.98
229%3.00
Double Chance
1X71%1.34
X259%1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%1.87
No49%1.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.25 + 1.14 = 2.39
Over 1.570%1.36
Over 2.545%2.21
Over 3.524%4.00
Under 1.530%2.88
Under 2.555%1.62
Under 3.576%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.3 = 9.7
Over 8.560%1.78
Over 9.548%2.26
Over 10.536%3.06
Under 8.540%1.93
Under 9.552%1.55
Under 10.564%1.29
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.8 + 2.9 = 5.7
Over 3.582%-
Over 4.568%-
Under 3.518%-
Under 4.532%-
Match Events
15'Andrés RenteríaAssist: Johan Beltrán
31'Johan BeltránFoul
36'Luis JimenezFoul
39'Jair CastilloAssist: J. Lasso
47'Santiago CubidesFoul
49'Kevin MorenoFoul
56'Santiago Cubides INDarwin Lopez out
63'Johar Mejia INDuvan Rodriguez out
64'Johan Beltrán INCristian Alvarez out
64'Kevin Moreno INSebastián Quiñones out
65'Ever Meza INWiston Fernández out
72'J. LassoAssist: Wiston Fernández
80'Jesús Muñoz INLeyner Palacios out
80'Deinner Quiñones INCharly Villegas González out
80'Jerson Malagon INWilfrido De la Rosa out
80'Luis Jimenez INAndres Felipe Alfonso Ciprian out
81'Sebastián QuiñonesFoul
90+3'Cristian Andrés Vergara Rivas INJosy Pérez out
90+7'Andres Felipe Alfonso CiprianFoul
Lineups
JaguaresAlianza Valledupar
4-4-2Coach: Flabio TorresAvg ratingAvg rating
1D. Martínez
14E. Martínez
3J. Malagón
29C. Henao
18L. Jiménez
5R. Colpa
21R. Bustamante
24S. Cubides
16E. Beltrán
9J. Mejia
11A. Rentería
40E. Esteban
23I. Alba
3K. Moreno
22J. Figueroa
32J. Viveros
10D. Quiñónes
6E. Meza
7J. Castillo
33J. Lasso
18C. Vergara
8J. MuñozJaguares Substitutes
7W. De La Rosa80'for Jerson Malagon
19C. Cantillo
2A. Alfonso80'for Luis Jimenez90+7'
27F. Gracia
17D. López56'for Santiago Cubides
12F. Mosquera
8D. Rodríguez63'for Johar Mejia
28D. Zuluaga
10C. Álvarez64'for Johan Beltrán
Alianza Valledupar Substitutes
13A. Simancas
2Sebastián Quiñones64'replaced by Kevin Moreno81'
25J. Perez90+3'for Cristian Andrés Vergara Rivas
88L. Palacios80'for Jesús Muñoz
21Samuel Nieto
55W. Fernández65'for Ever Meza
14C. Villegas80'for Deinner Quiñones
Match Stats
JaguaresAlianza Valledupar 57%Ball Possession43%
7Corner Kicks6
4Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots16
6Shots on Goal8
5Shots off Goal6
8Shots Inside Box10
7Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots2
6Fouls9
3Offsides0
6Goalkeeper Saves5
469Total Passes362
404Passes Accurate298
9Free Kicks6
Team Comparison
JaguaresAlianza Valledupar1432Elo Rating 1477
1.22Attack 1.39
0.54Defense 1.23
19%Hit Rate 44%
9.3Shots per Game 13.6
2.6Shots on Target 4.0
2.9Corners per Game 4.5
3.2Cards per Game 4.4
AI Insights
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Jaguares- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Alianza Valledupar- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.4 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Jaguares2Wins · 20%Draws440%
Alianza Valledupar4Wins · 40%
4Wins · 40%1.9Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10
Previous meetings
19/03/2026Alianza ValleduparJaguares10
10/11/2024JaguaresAlianza Valledupar00
21/04/2024Alianza ValleduparJaguares21
22/09/2023JaguaresAlianza Valledupar00
15/04/2023Alianza ValleduparJaguares30
30/07/2022JaguaresAlianza Valledupar21
07/04/2022JaguaresAlianza Valledupar21
01/04/2022Alianza ValleduparJaguares11
07/02/2022Alianza ValleduparJaguares20
04/10/2021Alianza ValleduparJaguares11
Recent Form
Jaguares1W4D5L
23/09/2026
Independiente MedellinJaguaresJaguares
Fortaleza FC
JuniorJaguaresJaguares
America de CaliJaguares
ChicoJaguares
Once Caldas
Internacional de BogotaJaguaresJaguares
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo CaliJaguares
Independiente MedellinJaguares21
L12/09/2026JaguaresFortaleza FC22
D06/09/2026JuniorJaguares33
D29/08/2026JaguaresAmerica de Cali22
D21/08/2026JaguaresChico10
W10/08/2026JaguaresOnce Caldas11
D06/08/2026Internacional de BogotaJaguares10
L02/08/2026JaguaresAtletico Nacional03
L25/07/2026Deportivo CaliJaguares20
L26/05/2026
Deportivo PereiraJaguares
Deportivo PereiraJaguares10
LAlianza Valledupar2W1D7L
19/09/2026Alianza Valledupar
Santa Fe
16/09/2026Alianza ValleduparSanta Fe14
LChicoAlianza Valledupar12
W13/09/2026Alianza ValleduparJunior10
W10/09/2026Once CaldasAlianza Valledupar10
L03/09/2026America de CaliAlianza Valledupar30
L30/08/2026Alianza ValleduparAtletico Nacional15
L26/08/2026
CucutaAlianza Valledupar10
L22/08/2026Alianza ValleduparDeportivo Pereira
09/08/2026Alianza ValleduparDeportivo Pereira00
DAlianza Valledupar
Bucaramanga23
L01/08/2026Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima12
LReferee Profile
5.43Cards per match
4.98Yellow cards per match
0.44Red cards per match
21.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.43 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.53).
Cards come from 291 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | WDWWL |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | LWWLW |
| 3 |  Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | DLWWL |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | LWLDW |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | DDDLD |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | LWWDD |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | WDLLD |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | DWWLD |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | LDWLW |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | WLWDL |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | DWDDD |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | DDLLL |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | WLDLL |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | WDLWW |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | DWDDL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | LLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 30:13 | +17 | 32 | WDWWL |
| 2 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 29:11 | +18 | 31 | LWLDW |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 24:10 | +14 | 30 | DWWLD |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 22:13 | +9 | 25 | LLLDD |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21:14 | +7 | 25 | LWWDD |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22:21 | +1 | 23 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 | DDDLD |
| 9 | Cucuta | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18:22 | -4 | 21 | DWDDL |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19:20 | -1 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 12 | Alianza Valledupar | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16:26 | -10 | 18 | WDLWW |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 18:22 | -4 | 17 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Llaneros | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16:21 | -5 | 17 | DWDDD |
| 15 | Junior | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 20:23 | -3 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12:25 | -13 | 15 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 11:19 | -8 | 14 | LLLDD |
| 18 | Jaguares | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17:28 | -11 | 13 | WLDLL |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 16:22 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10:22 | -12 | 12 | DLWWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 15 | 30:13 | 32 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 15 | 29:11 | 31 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 24:10 | 30 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 24:14 | 26 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 22:13 | 25 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 21:14 | 25 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 15 | 22:21 | 23 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 16 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 15 | 18:22 | 21 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 19:20 | 19 |
| 12 | Alianza Valledupar | 15 | 16:26 | 18 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 16 | 18:22 | 17 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 16 | 16:21 | 17 |
| 15 | Junior | 15 | 20:23 | 15 |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 12:25 | 15 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 11:19 | 14 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 15 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 15 | 16:22 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 15 | 10:22 | 12 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera A matches
- Chico vs Deportivo Pasto 26/09/26
- Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga 26/09/26
- Deportivo Pereira vs Internacional de Bogota 26/09/26
- Cucuta vs Llaneros 27/09/26
- Deportivo Cali vs Águilas Doradas 28/09/26
- Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios 30/09/26
- Atletico Nacional vs Junior 01/10/26
- Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar 03/10/26
About the Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar forecast
The forecasts for this Primera A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar in the Primera A table
Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar are close in the Primera A table, 16th and 17th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Jaguares 20-33, Alianza Valledupar 13-27. The full standings are on the Primera A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.