Lyon vs Nice Prediction

Lyon
2-1
Finished
HT 2-1
Nice
Groupama Stadium, Lyon·Francois Letexier 18/10/2026
LyonLyon
2-1
Finished
NiceNice

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalHIGHModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-2.5%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.62
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+4.9%
Lyon Rest
3 days
Nice Rest
7 days

Lyon vs Nice: the result in context

Lyon beat Nice 2-1 in the Ligue 1 on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Nice tend to win more corners, 5.5 a game to 3.3 for Lyon.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.80
X
23%3.94
2
21%4.37
Double Chance
1X
79%1.22
X2
45%2.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.62
No
46%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.9 + 0.95 = 2.85
Over 1.5
79%1.20
Over 2.5
57%1.69
Over 3.5
36%2.66
Under 1.5
21%4.35
Under 2.5
43%2.20
Under 3.5
64%1.45
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 4 = 8.6
Over 8.5
48%1.38
Over 9.5
37%1.69
Over 10.5
27%2.09
Under 8.5
52%2.67
Under 9.5
63%2.03
Under 10.5
73%1.65
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.2 = 3.9
Over 3.5
54%1.67
Over 4.5
35%2.20
Under 3.5
46%2.15
Under 4.5
65%1.62

Match Events

10'Niels NkounkouFoul
18'Sepe Elye WahiAssist: Jonathan Clauss
32'Pavel Šulc
36'Tanner TessmannAssist: Zachary Athekame
48'Mohamed AbdelmoneimFoul
61'Noah Teye Nartey INCorentin Tolisso out
61'Julien Duranville INKeito Nakamura out
65'Mohamed AmouraFoul
70'Keito NakamuraSerious foul
75'Kail Boudache INFelix Bacher out
81'Mohamed Abdelmoneim INAlidu Seidu out
81'Pavel Šulc INKhalis Merah out
81'Abner Vinicius INRuben Kluivert out
87'Xavier Mandza INSofiane Diop out
87'Axel Witsel INMorgan Sanson out
87'Gauthier Hein INIsak Jansson out
90+3'Goal cancelledSepe Elye Wahi
90+4'Sepe Elye Wahi

Lineups

Lyon
4-2-3-1Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Nice
3-4-2-1Coach: O. Pantaloni
Avg rating6.67
Avg rating6.52
R. Descamps6.740R. Descamps
Z. Athekame7.113Z. Athekame
Clinton Mata6.822C. Mata
M. Niakhaté7.019M. Niakhaté
Abner6.316Abner
T. Tessmann8.16T. Tessmann
M. Bidstrup6.62M. Bidstrup
K. Boudache6.426K. Boudache
N. Nartey6.599N. Nartey
J. Duranville7.024J. Duranville
P. Šulc7.710P. Šulc
Y. Diouf6.123Y. Diouf
Mohamed Abdelmonem6.55M. Abdelmonem
Y. Ndayishimiye6.855Y. Ndayishimiye
X. Mandza Tsiendi6.735X. Mandza Tsiendi
J. Clauss7.192J. Clauss
A. Witsel6.428A. Witsel
H. Boudaoui7.06H. Boudaoui
N. Nkounkou6.427N. Nkounkou
G. Hein6.67G. Hein
M. Amoura6.39M. Amoura
E. Wahi7.411E. Wahi

Lyon Substitutes

1D. Greif
21R. Kluivert81'for Abner Vinicius6.0
20F. Bacher75'for Kail Boudache6.2
45R. Himbert
18K. Merah81'for Pavel Šulc6.4
23T. Morton
11Keito Nakamura61'for Julien Duranville70'5.7
7E. Nuamah
8C. Tolisso61'for Noah Teye Nartey6.3

Nice Substitutes

84H. Koutoune
21I. Jansson87'for Gauthier Hein6.5
10S. Diop87'for Xavier Mandza6.0
39D. Coulibaly
77T. Boulhendi
41D. Morana
29N. Ngoumou
36A. Seidu81'for Mohamed Abdelmoneim6.2
8M. Sanson87'for Axel Witsel6.0

Match Stats

LyonNice
48%Ball Possession52%
1Corner Kicks9
0Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
8Total Shots12
4Shots on Goal5
3Shots off Goal5
6Shots Inside Box7
2Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots2
6Fouls14
0Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves2
471Total Passes503
399Passes Accurate435
85%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

LyonLyon
NiceNice
1866Elo Rating 1702
2.37Attack 1.26
1.74Defense 1.73
81%Hit Rate 42%
11.5Shots per Game 10.8
5.9Shots on Target 4.4
3.3Corners per Game 5.5
1.6Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+164 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

LyonLyon
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
NiceNice
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

LyonLyon5Wins · 50%
Draws220%
NiceNice3Wins · 30%
2.8Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Ligue 115/02/2026
LyonNice
20
Ligue 118/10/2025
NiceLyon
32
Ligue 109/03/2025
NiceLyon
02
Ligue 101/12/2024
LyonNice
41
Ligue 116/02/2024
LyonNice
10
Ligue 127/08/2023
NiceLyon
00
Ligue 103/06/2023
NiceLyon
31
Ligue 111/11/2022
LyonNice
11
Ligue 112/02/2022
LyonNice
20
Ligue 124/10/2021
NiceLyon
32

Referee Profile

Francois Letexier223 matches

4.28Cards per match
4.03Yellow cards per match
0.24Red cards per match
23.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Francois Letexier4.28
Other referees4.04

4.28 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.04).

Cards come from 218 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LyonLyon742113:5+814WLWDW
2Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain742114:9+514WWWWL
3Paris FCParis FC742112:7+514WLWDW
4LilleLille742110:5+514DWLWW
5MonacoMonaco742110:6+414LDWDW
6RennesRennes741215:14+113LWLWW
7LorientLorient73227:6+111WWLDW
8LensLens731314:11+310WWLDL
9MarseilleMarseille730414:10+49WWLLL
10Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29723213:10+39DWLLW
11ToulouseToulouse723212:11+19WDWDL
12AuxerreAuxerre730411:17-69WLWWL
13NiceNice72236:9-38LWWLD
14StrasbourgStrasbourg721412:15-37LLLDW
15AngersAngers72149:15-67LLWDL
16Le MansLe Mans713310:15-56LLWDD
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes71155:16-114LLLLL
18Le HavreLe Havre70255:11-62LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1LyonLyon713:514
2Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain714:914
3Paris FCParis FC712:714
4LilleLille710:514
5MonacoMonaco710:614
6RennesRennes715:1413
7LorientLorient77:611
8LensLens714:1110
9MarseilleMarseille714:109
10Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29713:109
11ToulouseToulouse712:119
12AuxerreAuxerre711:179
13NiceNice76:98
14StrasbourgStrasbourg712:157
15AngersAngers79:157
16Le MansLe Mans710:156
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes75:164
18Le HavreLe Havre75:112
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Lyon vs Nice forecast

The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lyon and Nice in the Ligue 1 table

In the Ligue 1 table, Lyon are 1st and Nice 13th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Lyon 13-5, Nice 6-9. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Lyon have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.