Mexico · Apertura - 8
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.88
SignalSOLIDModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+10.5%
Toluca Rest
5 days
Atlas Rest
6 days
Toluca vs Atlas: the result in context
Match Forecasts
Match Result
163%1.45
X22%4.35
215%6.45
Double Chance
1X85%1.10
X237%2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.80
No46%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.03 + 0.78 = 2.81
Over 1.579%1.18
Over 2.558%1.66
Over 3.535%2.57
Under 1.521%4.33
Under 2.542%2.16
Under 3.565%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.8 + 3.9 = 10.7
Over 8.565%1.25
Over 9.553%1.45
Over 10.540%1.76
Under 8.535%3.50
Under 9.547%2.43
Under 10.560%1.95
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.2 = 4.1
Over 3.559%1.35
Over 4.539%1.83
Under 3.541%3.05
Under 4.561%1.83
Match Events
17'Penalty confirmedHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
19'Alexis Vega(Penalty)
22'Jesús AnguloAssist: Nicolás Castro
24'Manuel CapassoFoul
29'Federico ViñasAssist: Bruno Méndez
45'Federico Viñas INJoão Paulo Dias Fernandes out
45'Arturo González INLuis Lopes out
45'Paulo Ramirez INSergio Hernández out
51'Florián MonzónAssist: Luís André Leite Esteves
53'João Paulo Dias FernandesAssist: Jesús Angulo
57'Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroArgument
57'Milton ValenzuelaArgument
58'Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro INEverardo Lopez out
60'Jorge RodríguezOG
62'Jorge Sánchez INElías Montiel out
72'Jesús Angulo INVíctor Guzmán out
72'Nicolás Castro INPavel Pérez out
79'Luis Lopes
80'Luís André Leite Esteves INJ. Serrato out
81'J. SerratoFoul
83'Alexis Vega INLuan Garcia out
87'Manuel Capasso INAdrian Mora out
Lineups
TolucaAtlas
5-3-2Coach: H. CrespoAvg ratingAvg rating
12R. Beltrán
2D. Barbosa
4B. Méndez
6F. Pereira
20J. Gallardo
5F. Romero
10J. Angulo
11Helinho
8N. Castro
9A. Vega
16F. Viñas
12C. Vargas
3J. Sánchez
13G. Aguirre
28M. Capasso
16M. Valenzuela
5J. Rodríguez
58A. González
15P. Ramírez
10L. Esteves
9F. Monzón
27V. RÃosToluca Substitutes
23O. Virgen
26Paulinho45'for Federico Viñas53'
3A. Briseño
24F. Arce
184S. Aceves
13Luan83'for Alexis Vega
7V. Guzmán72'for Jesús Angulo
25E. López58'for Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
15P. Pérez72'for Nicolás Castro
18D. Shrem
Atlas Substitutes
11Duk45'for Arturo González79'
23S. Hernández45'for Paulo Ramirez
17J. Lozano
203J. Martín
18E. Montiel62'for Jorge Sánchez
4A. Mora87'for Manuel Capasso
192Jesús Serrato80'for Luís André Leite Esteves81'
22A. Sánchez
44J. Purata
251L. Gamboa
Match Stats
TolucaAtlas 54%Ball Possession46%
6Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards3
14Total Shots10
6Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal5
10Shots Inside Box6
4Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots3
11Fouls13
3Offsides0
0Goalkeeper Saves2
456Total Passes386
392Passes Accurate316
86%Pass Accuracy82%
Team Comparison
TolucaAtlas1747Elo Rating 1632
1.61Attack 2.05
1.25Defense 1.20
0%Hit Rate 66%
21.2Shots per Game 13.7
6.5Shots on Target 3.9
9.4Corners per Game 6.4
2.0Cards per Game 2.2
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+115 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Toluca- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Atlas- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Toluca4Wins · 40%Draws550%
Atlas1Wins · 10%
1Wins · 10%2.8Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
15/03/2026TolucaAtlas11
02/11/2025AtlasToluca00
13/04/2025AtlasToluca23
29/09/2024TolucaAtlas41
07/04/2024TolucaAtlas41
27/08/2023AtlasToluca00
02/02/2023AtlasToluca00
10/07/2022TolucaAtlas32
24/04/2022TolucaAtlas24
22/08/2021AtlasToluca00
Recent Form
Toluca8W1D1L
07/09/2026Toluca
MonterreyToluca
FC Juarez
Club QueretaroToluca
Atlante FCTolucaToluca
Necaxa
TolucaMonterrey20
W03/09/2026Toluca
Leon
31/08/2026TolucaLeon20
WTolucaFC Juarez40
W27/08/2026Toluca
Austin
22/08/2026TolucaAustin20
WClub QueretaroToluca12
W16/08/2026Atlante FCToluca00
D13/08/2026Toluca
FC Dallas
TolucaFC Dallas31
W09/08/2026Toluca
Los Angeles FC
TolucaLos Angeles FC01
L06/08/2026Toluca
Seattle Sounders
03/08/2026TolucaSeattle Sounders30
WTolucaNecaxa31
WAtlas5W1D4L
06/09/2026AtlasAtlante FCAtlasClub Queretaro
Cruz AzulAtlasAtlas
Tigres UANL
CharlotteAtlasAtlasMonterrey
Santos LagunaAtlasLeonAtlas
AtlasAtlante FC11
D30/08/2026AtlasClub Queretaro13
L23/08/2026Cruz AzulAtlas02
W16/08/2026AtlasTigres UANL21
W12/08/2026
FC CincinnatiAtlas
08/08/2026FC CincinnatiAtlas12
WCharlotteAtlas20
L05/08/2026
Columbus CrewAtlas
02/08/2026Columbus CrewAtlas31
LAtlasMonterrey02
L26/07/2026Santos LagunaAtlas01
W18/07/2026LeonAtlas23
WLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37:26 | +11 | 32 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38:23 | +15 | 30 | DDDLW |
| 3 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26:15 | +11 | 30 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35:21 | +14 | 27 | WDDDD |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27:30 | -3 | 27 | LWWLW |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23:20 | +3 | 25 | WWLWW |
| 7 |  Club Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23:21 | +2 | 23 | LWDLD |
| 8 |  CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29:20 | +9 | 22 | WWWLL |
| 9 |  Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25:22 | +3 | 22 | LDDWD |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | +1 | 21 | LDLWW |
| 11 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:26 | -2 | 21 | DWDLW |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18:23 | -5 | 20 | LLLLL |
| 13 |  Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:23 | -4 | 19 | WLLLD |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:24 | -5 | 19 | LLWWD |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 15 | LLDLD |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16:26 | -10 | 14 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:28 | -11 | 13 | WLDLL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13:34 | -21 | 11 | WWDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 37:26 | 32 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 38:23 | 30 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 26:15 | 30 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 35:21 | 27 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 27:30 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 7 | Club Leon | 16 | 23:21 | 23 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 29:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 25:22 | 22 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 26:25 | 21 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 24:26 | 21 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 18:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 19:23 | 19 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 19:24 | 19 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 16:26 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 13:34 | 11 |
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About the Toluca vs Atlas forecast
The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Toluca and Atlas in the Liga MX table
In the Liga MX table, Toluca (4th) and Atlas (5th) are level on 27 points. League goal record so far: Toluca 35-21, Atlas 27-30. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.