Toluca vs Atlas Prediction

Toluca
5-2
Finished
HT 3-0
Atlas
13/09/2026
TolucaToluca
5-2
Finished
AtlasAtlas

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.88
SignalHIGHModel62%RiskMediumGap+10.5%
Toluca Rest
5 days
Atlas Rest
6 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
63%1.45
X
22%4.35
2
15%6.45
Double Chance
1X
85%1.10
X2
37%2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.80
No
46%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.03 + 0.78 = 2.81
Over 1.5
79%1.18
Over 2.5
58%1.66
Over 3.5
35%2.57
Under 1.5
21%4.33
Under 2.5
42%2.16
Under 3.5
65%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.8 + 3.9 = 10.7
Over 8.5
65%1.25
Over 9.5
53%1.45
Over 10.5
40%1.76
Under 8.5
35%3.50
Under 9.5
47%2.43
Under 10.5
60%1.95
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.2 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%1.35
Over 4.5
39%1.83
Under 3.5
41%3.05
Under 4.5
61%1.83

Match Events

17'Penalty confirmedHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
19'Alexis Vega(Penalty)
22'Jesús AnguloAssist: Nicolás Castro
24'Manuel CapassoFoul
29'Federico ViñasAssist: Bruno Méndez
45'Federico Viñas INJoão Paulo Dias Fernandes out
45'Arturo González INLuis Lopes out
45'Paulo Ramirez INSergio Hernández out
51'Florián MonzónAssist: Luís André Leite Esteves
53'João Paulo Dias FernandesAssist: Jesús Angulo
57'Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroArgument
57'Milton ValenzuelaArgument
58'Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro INEverardo Lopez out
60'Jorge RodríguezOG
62'Jorge Sánchez INElías Montiel out
72'Jesús Angulo INVíctor Guzmán out
72'Nicolás Castro INPavel Pérez out
79'Luis Lopes
80'Luís André Leite Esteves INJ. Serrato out
81'J. SerratoFoul
83'Alexis Vega INLuan Garcia out
87'Manuel Capasso INAdrian Mora out

Lineups

Toluca
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Mohamed
Atlas
5-3-2Coach: H. Crespo
R. Beltrán12R. BeltránR. Beltrán
D. Barbosa2D. BarbosaD. Barbosa
B. Méndez4B. MéndezB. Méndez
F. Pereira6F. PereiraF. Pereira
J. Gallardo20J. GallardoJ. Gallardo
F. Romero5F. RomeroF. Romero
J. Angulo10J. AnguloJ. Angulo
Helinho11HelinhoHelinho
N. Castro8N. CastroN. Castro
A. Vega9A. VegaA. Vega
F. Viñas16F. ViñasF. Viñas
C. Vargas12C. VargasC. Vargas
J. Sánchez3J. SánchezJ. Sánchez
G. Aguirre13G. AguirreG. Aguirre
M. Capasso28M. CapassoM. Capasso
M. Valenzuela16M. ValenzuelaM. Valenzuela
J. Rodríguez5J. RodríguezJ. Rodríguez
A. González58A. GonzálezA. González
Paulo Ramírez15P. RamírezPaulo Ramírez
Luís Esteves10L. EstevesLuís Esteves
F. Monzón9F. MonzónF. Monzón
V. Ríos27V. RíosV. Ríos

Toluca Substitutes

23O. VirgenF
26PaulinhoF
3A. BriseñoD
24F. ArceM
184S. AcevesM
13LuanD
7V. GuzmánM
25E. LópezD
15P. PérezM
18D. ShremG

Atlas Substitutes

11DukF
23S. HernándezM
17J. LozanoD
203J. MartínF
18E. MontielM
4A. MoraD
192Jesús SerratoM
22A. SánchezG
44J. PurataD
251L. GamboaF

Match Stats

TolucaAtlas
54%Ball Possession46%
6Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards3
14Total Shots10
6Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal5
10Shots Inside Box6
4Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots3
11Fouls13
3Offsides0
0Goalkeeper Saves2
456Total Passes386
392Passes Accurate316
86%Pass Accuracy82%

Team Comparison

TolucaToluca
AtlasAtlas
1813Elo Rating 1581
2.70Attack 1.58
2.54Defense 0.70
100%Hit Rate 31%
11.1Shots per Game 12.0
4.6Shots on Target 3.1
4.5Corners per Game 5.0
1.6Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+232 Elo
High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📈BTTS Trend77% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

TolucaToluca
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AtlasAtlas
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.7 in second half)

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Toluca 50%Draw 50%0% Atlas
3.05Avg Goals
77%BTTS Rate
50%Over 2.5

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1TolucaToluca961220:9+1119LWWWW
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas953117:8+918DWWDW
3Club AmericaClub America852117:8+917DLWWW
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul950416:15+115LWWWL
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro842211:8+314DWWLD
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana842212:10+214DLWLW
7LeonLeon942312:10+214DWLDW
8PueblaPuebla942311:11014DLWLW
9AtlasAtlas942313:15-214DLDLW
10MonterreyMonterrey841314:10+413WDLLW
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca933315:10+512DWWDD
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas933312:13-112DLWLD
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis923411:16-59WLLWD
14Atlante FCAtlante FC91538:13-58DLDDL
15NecaxaNecaxa922510:16-68LLDLD
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL91449:13-47LDDDW
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna92169:15-67WWLDL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez91086:23-173WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1TolucaToluca920:919
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas917:818
3Club AmericaClub America817:817
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul916:1515
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro811:814
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana812:1014
7LeonLeon912:1014
8PueblaPuebla911:1114
9AtlasAtlas913:1514
10MonterreyMonterrey814:1013
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca915:1012
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas912:1312
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis911:169
14Atlante FCAtlante FC98:138
15NecaxaNecaxa910:168
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL99:137
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna99:157
18FC JuarezFC Juarez96:233
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Toluca vs Atlas Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Liga MX fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Liga MX

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Key Factors for This Match

Toluca have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Toluca and Atlas have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.05 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.