Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes Prediction

Parc des Princes, Paris·Ruddy Buquet 07/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.17
SignalSTRONGModel81%SurpriseMediumGap-4.2%
Value Analysis
76%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalHIGHModel76%SurpriseMediumGap+2.0%
Paris Saint Germain Rest
4 days
Estac Troyes Rest
7 days

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes: result, form and history

Paris Saint Germain beat Estac Troyes 1-0 in the Ligue 1 on 7 Nov 2026. It was in line with recent form: Paris Saint Germain had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Estac Troyes.

Paris Saint Germain have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 previous meetings, which averaged 4.5 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
79%1.17
X
15%8.00
2
6%15.00
Double Chance
1X
94%1.03
X2
21%5.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.83
No
46%1.89
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.78 + 0.93 = 3.71
Over 1.5
87%1.07
Over 2.5
72%1.33
Over 3.5
50%1.87
Under 1.5
13%6.96
Under 2.5
28%3.26
Under 3.5
50%1.95
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.7 + 2.9 = 9.6
Over 8.5
60%1.74
Over 9.5
48%2.17
Over 10.5
37%2.92
Under 8.5
40%2.00
Under 9.5
52%1.60
Under 10.5
63%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.2 + 2.1 = 3.3
Over 3.5
41%3.32
Over 4.5
23%4.75
Under 3.5
59%1.31
Under 4.5
77%1.16

Match Events

34'Ilya ZabarnyiFoul
39'Ilya ZabarnyiAssist: Senny Mayulu
62'Renaud Ripart INJérémy Le Douaron out
62'Kandet Diawara INHugo Picard out
70'Ferrán Torres INQuentin Ndjantou out
70'Mika Godts INJoão Neves out
72'Merwan Ifnaoui INIdrissa Soukouna out
73'Ismaël Boura INYvann Titi out
79'Jérémy Le DouaronFoul
85'Mouhamed Diop INTimothee Nkada out
86'Senny Mayulu INDro Fernández out
86'Fabián Ruiz INLucas Beraldo out
86'Antoine MilleFoul

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3Coach: Luis Enrique
Estac Troyes
4-5-1Coach: S. Dumont
Avg rating7.06
Avg rating6.49
M. Safonov7.239M. Safonov
W. Zaïre-Emery7.833W. Zaïre-Emery
I. Zabarnyi8.16I. Zabarnyi
W. Pacho7.351W. Pacho
L. Hernández7.521L. Hernández
Senny Mayulu7.724S. Mayulu
Vitinha7.217Vitinha
Fabián Ruiz6.98F. Ruiz
D. Doué6.714D. Doué
Ferran Torres6.09F. Torres
M. Godts6.322M. Godts
H. Konaté7.640H. Konaté
L. Maronnier6.52L. Maronnier
A. Monfray6.76A. Monfray
M. Diaz6.74M. Diaz
I. Boura6.914I. Boura
M. Ifnaoui6.410M. Ifnaoui
A. Mille6.617A. Mille
D. Karim6.929D. Karim
M. Diop6.58M. Diop
K. Diawara5.87K. Diawara
R. Ripart6.120R. Ripart

Paris Saint Germain Substitutes

42D. Boly
12L. Digne
27Pedro Fernández86'for Senny Mayulu6.8
87João Neves70'for Mika Godts6.8
30L. Chevalier
46Y. Idder
16A. Longoni
4Beraldo86'for Fabián Ruiz7.0
47Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha70'for Ferrán Torres6.5

Estac Troyes Substitutes

44Y. Titi73'for Ismaël Boura6.3
33P. Beach
11I. Gomis
5P. Gozzi
9J. Le Douaron62'for Renaud Ripart79'6.1
23T. Nkada85'for Mouhamed Diop6.3
26A. Phliponeau
22H. Picard62'for Kandet Diawara6.2
36I. Soukouna72'for Merwan Ifnaoui6.2

Match Stats

Paris Saint GermainEstac Troyes
73%Ball Possession27%
6Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots8
7Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal3
12Shots Inside Box5
3Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots2
6Fouls7
1Offsides6
3Goalkeeper Saves6
893Total Passes327
835Passes Accurate272
7Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
2073Elo Rating 1657
4.24Attack 0.73
2.30Defense 1.80
100%Hit Rate 27%
18.9Shots per Game 13.1
10.8Shots on Target 4.1
5.4Corners per Game 5.2
0.4Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+417 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.7 goals
📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.5 vs 1.7 in first half)
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain3Wins · 75%
Draws125%
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes0Wins · 0%
4.5Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored4 of 4
100%3+ goals4 of 4

Previous meetings

Ligue 107/05/2023
Estac TroyesParis Saint Germain
13
Ligue 129/10/2022
Paris Saint GermainEstac Troyes
43
Ligue 108/05/2022
Paris Saint GermainEstac Troyes
22
Ligue 107/08/2021
Estac TroyesParis Saint Germain
12

Referee Profile

Ruddy Buquet187 matches

4.10Cards per match
3.86Yellow cards per match
0.24Red cards per match
23.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ruddy Buquet4.10
Other referees3.97

4.10 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.97).

Cards come from 173 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1072122:10+1223WWWWW
2LilleLille1063114:7+721WWDDW
3Paris FCParis FC1062217:10+720WWLWL
4MarseilleMarseille1060422:14+818WWWWW
5LyonLyon1052315:9+617LWLWL
6NiceNice1052315:12+317WWWLW
7MonacoMonaco1044213:11+216DLDLD
8RennesRennes1051421:21016LLWLW
9Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291043318:12+615WWLDW
10LorientLorient104339:8+115WLDWW
11LensLens1041517:15+213LLWWW
12ToulouseToulouse1034315:14+113WLDWD
13StrasbourgStrasbourg1031618:22-410LWLLL
14AuxerreAuxerre1031613:24-1110LLDWL
15Le MansLe Mans1015412:19-78DLDLL
16AngersAngers102269:19-108LLDLL
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes102267:17-108LWDLL
18Le HavreLe Havre100289:22-132LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1022:1023
2LilleLille1014:721
3Paris FCParis FC1017:1020
4MarseilleMarseille1022:1418
5LyonLyon1015:917
6NiceNice1015:1217
7MonacoMonaco1013:1116
8RennesRennes1021:2116
9Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291018:1215
10LorientLorient109:815
11LensLens1017:1513
12ToulouseToulouse1015:1413
13StrasbourgStrasbourg1018:2210
14AuxerreAuxerre1013:2410
15Le MansLe Mans1012:198
16AngersAngers109:198
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes107:178
18Le HavreLe Havre109:222
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1 table

The table shows a wide gap: Paris Saint Germain are 1st in the Ligue 1, while Estac Troyes sit 17th, 15 points behind. League goal record so far: Paris Saint Germain 22-10, Estac Troyes 7-17. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Paris Saint Germain have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.