São Bernardo vs Ceara Prediction

São Bernardo
3-4
Finished
HT 1-0
Ceara
Estádio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo do Campo·Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil 26/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.46
SignalGOODModel37%SurpriseMediumGap+4.2%
São Bernardo Rest
2 days
Ceara Rest
3 days

São Bernardo vs Ceara: the result in context

Ceara beat São Bernardo 4-3 in the Serie B on 26 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Savio Pereira Sampaio averages 4.53 cards a game, 0.65 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.40
X
31%2.82
2
28%3.34
Double Chance
1X
72%1.31
X2
59%1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%2.03
No
48%1.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.36 + 0.83 = 2.19
Over 1.5
67%1.46
Over 2.5
43%2.53
Over 3.5
13%4.55
Under 1.5
33%2.52
Under 2.5
57%1.49
Under 3.5
87%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 4 = 9.9
Over 8.5
60%1.33
Over 9.5
51%1.60
Over 10.5
39%2.00
Under 8.5
40%3.08
Under 9.5
49%2.25
Under 10.5
61%1.74
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.6 = 4.9
Over 3.5
66%1.40
Over 4.5
47%1.85
Under 3.5
34%2.60
Under 4.5
53%1.83

Match Events

23'Helder MacielAssist: Mario Sergio
31'Julio CesarFoul
46'Thalisson INGiulio out
46'R. Lopez INLucca out
46'Lucas Rian INHugo Sanches out
46'D. Davi INEchapora out
47'M. N. Ferreira BerrondoAssist: Giulio
55'EderUnsportsmanlike conduct
56'Rodrigo Ferreira INPedrinho out
56'Foguinho INHyoran out
59'Hugo Sanches
62'VinaAssist: M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
66'Giovanni Pavani INRichardson out
68'Felipe GarciaFoul
74'Joao GabrielAssist: Giulio
81'PedrinhoAssist: Mario Sergio
84'Lucas Lima INMarcao Silva out
85'Vina INMelk out
89'M. N. Ferreira Berrondo INEnzo Lodovico out
90+1'Enzo Lodovico
90+12'Lucas RianUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

São Bernardo
4-3-3Coach: Catala Ricardo
Ceara
4-4-1-1Coach: Paulista Daniel
Avg rating6.64
Avg rating6.85
Alex Alves6.21A. Alves
Rodrigo Ferreira6.32R. Ferreira
Helder Maciel7.33H. Maciel
Jemerson5.935Jemerson
Mário Sergio6.633M. Sergio
Lucas Lima6.614L. Lima
FoguinhoC6.68Foguinho
Dudu Miraíma7.226D. Miraíma
Lucas Rian6.37L. Rian
Felipe Garcia7.09F. Garcia
Daniel Davi Simão Roque6.237D. Davi Simão Roque
RichardC5.31Richard
Júlio César6.718J. César
Thalisson Gabriel6.23T. Gabriel
Éder5.933Éder
Sávio6.36Sávio
Bryan Borges7.531B. Borges
Giovanni Pavani6.321G. Pavani
João Gabriel8.381J. Gabriel
Nicolás Ferreira7.620N. Ferreira
Vina7.629Vina
Renzo López6.77R. López

São Bernardo Substitutes

21Hugo46'for Lucas Rian59'6.5
27Echaporã46'for D. Davi6.9
42Hyoran56'for Foguinho6.3
29Pedrinho56'for Rodrigo Ferreira81'7.9
12Júnior Oliveira
6Pará
90Luizão
97Augusto
77Marcão Silva84'for Lucas Lima6.5
10Fabrício Daniel
70Lucas Reis
89Daniel Amorim

Ceara Substitutes

35Giulio46'for Thalisson7.2
99Lucca46'for R. Lopez6.9
26Richardson66'for Giovanni Pavani6.9
22Matheus Nogueira
12Sánchez
60Enzo Valentim Lodovico89'for M. N. Ferreira Berrondo90+1'7.6
71Gabriel Silva Rocha
88José Wilson Neto
40Melk85'for Vina6.6
8Matheus Araújo
10Juan Alano
11Lucas Mugni

Match Stats

São BernardoCeara
54%Ball Possession46%
10Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
18Total Shots17
5Shots on Goal8
5Shots off Goal6
11Shots Inside Box11
7Shots Outside Box6
8Blocked Shots3
13Fouls20
1Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves2
407Total Passes357
345Passes Accurate287
85%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

São BernardoSão Bernardo
CearaCeara
1618Elo Rating 1579
1.70Attack 0.80
1.46Defense 1.45
50%Hit Rate 14%
11.5Shots per Game 14.7
4.2Shots on Target 4.0
6.2Corners per Game 4.0
2.1Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

São BernardoSão Bernardo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
CearaCeara
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

São BernardoSão Bernardo0Wins · 0%
Draws2100%
CearaCeara0Wins · 0%
1.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
0%3+ goals0 of 2

Previous meetings

Serie B21/03/2026
CearaSão Bernardo
11
Copa Do Brasil17/03/2026
São BernardoCeara
2030

Recent Form

São BernardoSão Bernardo
2W4D4L
24/07/2026
Athletic ClubSão Bernardo
21
L
18/07/2026
São BernardoAvai
11
D
12/07/2026
São BernardoCuiaba
22
D
07/07/2026
Vila NovaSão Bernardo
21
L
27/06/2026
CriciumaSão Bernardo
10
L
21/06/2026
São BernardoJuventude
01
L
14/06/2026
São BernardoSport Recife
00
D
07/06/2026
CRBSão Bernardo
23
W
31/05/2026
São BernardoNovorizontino
11
D
24/05/2026
Atletico GoianienseSão Bernardo
01
W

Referee Profile

Savio Pereira Sampaio169 matches

4.53Cards per match
4.35Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Savio Pereira Sampaio4.53
Other referees5.18

4.53 cards a match, 0.65 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.18).

Cards come from 152 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino372010766:32+3470WWWDW
2JuventudeJuventude371911749:26+2368WDWDD
3Vila NovaVila Nova37199953:38+1566WDLDW
4CriciumaCriciuma371881138:31+762LWLWW
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC371614744:33+1162LDDWD
6CRBCRB371771357:51+658WLWLD
7GoiasGoias371771339:41-258WWWDW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense371513945:35+1058WDLDD
9Sport RecifeSport Recife3714131050:42+855LDWLD
10Operario-PROperario-PR371591349:50-154WLWLL
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3714101352:42+1052LWWLD
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP371491445:39+651WDWWW
13CuiabaCuiaba3711141234:32+247LLLLL
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3711141244:44047LWLDD
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3712101540:49-946LWLDL
16CearaCeara3711101638:47-943LLLDL
17AvaiAvai371171935:47-1240WLLDW
18LondrinaLondrina37882145:58-1332LLLWD
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro37852427:55-2829WWWWL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta37362821:79-5815LLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3766:3270
2JuventudeJuventude3749:2668
3Vila NovaVila Nova3753:3866
4CriciumaCriciuma3738:3162
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3744:3362
6CRBCRB3757:5158
7GoiasGoias3739:4158
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3745:3558
9Sport RecifeSport Recife3750:4255
10Operario-PROperario-PR3749:5054
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3752:4252
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3745:3951
13CuiabaCuiaba3734:3247
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3744:4447
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3740:4946
16CearaCeara3738:4743
17AvaiAvai3735:4740
18LondrinaLondrina3745:5832
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3727:5529
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3721:7915
PromotionRelegation

About the São Bernardo vs Ceara forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

São Bernardo and Ceara in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, São Bernardo are 11th and Ceara 16th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: São Bernardo 52-42, Ceara 38-47. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

São Bernardo and Ceara have met only 2 times recently, averaging 1.0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.