V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction

Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki·Hiroyuki Kimura 21/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel76%SurpriseMediumGap0.0%
V-varen Nagasaki Rest
4 days
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Rest
4 days

V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: result, form and history

V-varen Nagasaki beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0 in the J1 League on 21 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: Sanfrecce Hiroshima had won 5 of their previous five, compared with none for V-varen Nagasaki.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima tend to win more corners, 7.8 a game to 3.1 for V-varen Nagasaki.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
13%6.46
X
20%4.67
2
67%1.44
Double Chance
1X
33%2.75
X2
87%1.11
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.75
No
46%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.79 + 2.29 = 3.08
Over 1.5
82%1.20
Over 2.5
61%1.60
Over 3.5
40%2.57
Under 1.5
18%4.58
Under 2.5
39%2.24
Under 3.5
60%1.47
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

23'Takuma Ominami INYusei Egawa out
27'Hijiri OnagaFoul
36'Hijiri OnagaAssist: Jonathan Junior
45'Matheus JesusAssist: Takashi Sawada
45'Daiki Suga INKim Ju-sung out
45'Takuma Asano INMutsuki Kato out
53'Takashi Sawada INKenshin Yasuda out
60'Jonathan JuniorFoul
62'Yotaro Nakajima INShun Ayukawa out
65'Card upgrade confirmedSébastien Haller
66'Sébastien HallerViolent conduct
71'Naoto Arai INTaishi Matsumoto out
73'Kenshin YasudaAssist: Matheus Jesus
76'Shunya Yoneda INAsahi Masuyama out
76'Jonathan Junior INRyogo Yamasaki out
76'Hijiri Onaga INRyosuke Shindo out
76'Akito Suzuki INTakumu Kawamura out
90+7'Kenshin YasudaAssist: Matheus Jesus

Lineups

V-varen Nagasaki
3-4-2-1Coach: T. Takagi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3-4-2-1Coach: Bartosch Gaul
Avg rating7.20
Avg rating6.13
M. Goto6.71M. Goto
T. Ominami7.025T. Ominami
I. Arai6.629I. Arai
K. Doi7.231K. Doi
H. Onaga8.022H. Onaga
H. Yamaguchi6.55H. Yamaguchi
M. Hasegawa6.241M. Hasegawa
S. Yoneda6.423S. Yoneda
Matheus Jesus9.810M. Jesus
T. Sawada7.319T. Sawada
Jonathan7.099Jonathan
K. Osako5.91K. Osako
S. Nakano6.415S. Nakano
H. Araki5.74H. Araki
S. Higashi6.97S. Higashi
N. Arai6.25N. Arai
H. Kawabe6.86H. Kawabe
Y. Nakajima6.335Y. Nakajima
D. Suga5.618D. Suga
T. Asano5.829T. Asano
A. Suzuki6.110A. Suzuki
S. Haller5.222S. Haller

V-varen Nagasaki Substitutes

6Y. Egawa23'for Takuma Ominami7.1
21Diego Pituca
13G. Hatano
88A. Masuyama76'for Shunya Yoneda6.9
50R. Shindo76'for Hijiri Onaga7.1
24R. Yamada
18R. Yamasaki76'for Jonathan Junior6.6
7K. Yasuda53'for Takashi Sawada73'90+7'8.8
34T. Matsumoto

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Substitutes

23S. Ayukawa62'for Yotaro Nakajima6.5
99I. Ouchi
14T. Matsumoto71'for Naoto Arai5.9
32S. Koshimichi
45S. Kobayashi
37Kim Ju-Sung45'for Daiki Suga6.5
8T. Kawamura76'for Akito Suzuki5.8
11M. Kato45'for Takuma Asano6.4
9K. Yengi

Match Stats

V-varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshima
26%Ball Possession74%
0Corner Kicks10
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
11Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal7
9Shots Inside Box7
2Shots Outside Box10
2Blocked Shots8
14Fouls13
2Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves0
257Total Passes720
181Passes Accurate636
12Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima
1527Elo Rating 1708
1.44Attack 2.11
1.90Defense 2.08
27%Hit Rate 77%
13.2Shots per Game 17.3
3.7Shots on Target 5.1
3.1Corners per Game 7.8
2.0Cards per Game 1.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.08 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima2Wins · 100%
3.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

J1 League18/04/2026
Sanfrecce HiroshimaV-varen Nagasaki
20
J1 League06/02/2026
V-varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshima
13

Recent Form

V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki
2W3D5L
17/10/2026
KashimaV-varen Nagasaki
20
L
11/10/2026
JEF United ChibaV-varen Nagasaki
11
D
07/10/2026
Shimizu S-pulseV-varen Nagasaki
2111
L
29/09/2026
Gainare TottoriV-varen Nagasaki
20
L
19/09/2026
V-varen NagasakiCerezo Osaka
11
D
12/09/2026
V-varen NagasakiNagoya Grampus
20
W
09/09/2026
Kochi UnitedV-varen Nagasaki
01
W
06/09/2026
Vissel KobeV-varen Nagasaki
31
L
02/09/2026
V-varen NagasakiGamba Osaka
22
D
29/08/2026
V-varen NagasakiFC Tokyo
03
L
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima
8W1D1L

Referee Profile

Hiroyuki Kimura162 matches

3.05Cards per match
2.96Yellow cards per match
0.09Red cards per match
25.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Hiroyuki Kimura3.05
Other referees2.77

3.05 cards a match, 0.28 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.77).

Cards come from 125 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1283130:10+2027DWWWL
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1283127:8+1927WDWWW
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1282229:10+1926WLWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1281325:19+625WDLWW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1272318:11+723DLWLW
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1264225:18+722WWWLD
7UrawaUrawa1270521:23-221WWWLW
8KashimaKashima1262425:21+420LDWWD
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1246216:12+418DDDDW
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1251615:17-216LWLLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1242614:18-414DDWWL
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1235412:19-714DDLDD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1242610:20-1014LLDWW
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1233615:19-412LWLDD
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1225514:21-711DWDLL
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1224615:23-810DDLLW
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1223712:22-109LLLLL
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy121569:21-128WDLLL
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1221913:21-87LLLWL
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1214712:24-127DLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1230:1027
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1227:827
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1229:1026
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1225:1925
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1218:1123
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1225:1822
7UrawaUrawa1221:2321
8KashimaKashima1225:2120
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1216:1218
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1215:1716
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1214:1814
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1212:1914
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1210:2014
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1215:1912
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1214:2111
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1215:2310
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1212:229
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy129:218
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1213:217
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1212:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League table

In the J1 League table, Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 3rd and V-varen Nagasaki 14th, 14 points apart. League goal record so far: V-varen Nagasaki 15-19, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 29-10. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima have met only 2 times recently, averaging 3.0 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.