Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction

Atletico Madrid
1-2
Finished
HT 1-1
Barcelona
Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid·Javier Alberola Rojas 08/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.34
SignalGOODModel54%SurpriseMediumGap-1.3%
Value Analysis
76%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.34
SignalHIGHModel76%SurpriseMediumGap+2.0%
Atletico Madrid Rest
5 days
Barcelona Rest
5 days

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: result, form and history

Barcelona beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 in the La Liga on 8 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Barcelona have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.7 goals a game. Referee Javier Alberola Rojas averages 3.71 cards a game, 1.18 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
31%3.50
X
22%4.29
2
47%1.91
Double Chance
1X
53%1.89
X2
69%1.31
Both Teams to Score
Yes
69%1.33
No
31%3.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.47 + 1.68 = 3.15
Over 1.5
86%1.07
Over 2.5
70%1.34
Over 3.5
49%1.87
Under 1.5
14%6.91
Under 2.5
30%3.20
Under 3.5
51%1.97
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.1 = 8.9
Over 8.5
52%1.36
Over 9.5
40%1.62
Over 10.5
30%2.03
Under 8.5
48%2.87
Under 9.5
60%2.19
Under 10.5
70%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.6 = 3.5
Over 3.5
47%1.36
Over 4.5
28%1.83
Under 3.5
53%3.01
Under 4.5
72%1.89

Match Events

10'Giuliano Simeone BaldiniAssist: Julián Álvarez
43'Alejandro Baena RodríguezFoul
45'Fermín López
45'Brian Farinas INFrenkie de Jong out
60'João Cancelo INAndreas Christensen out
60'Lee Kang-In INAlexander Sørloth out
66'Fermín LópezAssist: Lamine Yamal
72'Koke INMorten Hjulmand out
72'Alejandro Baena Rodríguez INJohnny Cardoso out
74'Marc BernalFoul
74'Marc Bernal INEric García out
74'Fermín López INPablo Martín Páez Gavira out
78'Pablo Barrios Rivas INJonathan David out
86'Anthony Gordon INKarim Adeyemi out
87'Marcos LlorenteFoul
88'Marc PubillFoul

Lineups

Atletico Madrid
4-4-2Coach: D. Simeone
Barcelona
4-1-4-1Coach: H. Flick
Avg rating6.39
Avg rating6.82
J. Oblak6.613J. Oblak
Marcos Llorente6.414M. Llorente
Marc Pubill6.018M. Pubill
D. Hancko5.717D. Hancko
Álex Grimaldo5.322Á. Grimaldo
G. Simeone7.620G. Simeone
Koke6.86Koke
Pablo Barrios6.48P. Barrios
Álex Baena6.510Á. Baena
Lee Kang-In6.67L. Kang-In
J. Álvarez7.219J. Álvarez
Joan García6.61J. García
B. Farinas6.54B. Farinas
Pau Cubarsí Paredes6.75P. Cubarsí Paredes
Gerard Martín6.818G. Martín
João Cancelo6.02J. Cancelo
Marc Bernal7.022M. Bernal
Lamine Yamal7.710L. Yamal
Fermín9.57Fermín
Pedri6.98Pedri
A. Gordon6.417A. Gordon
Raphinha6.211Raphinha

Atletico Madrid Substitutes

23M. Hjulmand72'for Koke6.1
11A. Lookman
15J. David78'for Pablo Barrios Rivas6.3
27J. Dominguez
26R. Hueso
24Robin Le Normand
30Dani Martínez
4Rodrigo Mendoza
1J. Musso
16Arnau Ortiz
9A. Sørloth60'for Lee Kang-In6.3
5J. Cardoso72'for Alejandro Baena Rodríguez6.1

Barcelona Substitutes

9Gabriel Jesus
30E. Tunkara
13W. Szczęsny
29H. Abdelkarim
6Gavi74'for Fermín López6.3
25D. Livaković
24Eric García74'for Marc Bernal6.4
41A. Campos
15A. Christensen60'for João Cancelo6.7
3Alejandro Balde
14K. Adeyemi86'for Anthony Gordon6.5
21F. de Jong45'for Brian Farinas7.1

Match Stats

Atletico MadridBarcelona
37%Ball Possession63%
4Corner Kicks2
4Yellow Cards1
9Total Shots19
4Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal10
6Shots Inside Box11
3Shots Outside Box8
1Blocked Shots5
14Fouls14
5Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves3
391Total Passes675
317Passes Accurate615
14Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
BarcelonaBarcelona
1942Elo Rating 2068
0.96Attack 3.41
2.30Defense 1.44
56%Hit Rate 64%
13.2Shots per Game 16.3
4.1Shots on Target 7.2
4.7Corners per Game 4.4
1.9Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.15 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
BarcelonaBarcelona
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 1.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid3Wins · 30%
Draws110%
BarcelonaBarcelona6Wins · 60%
3.7Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

UEFA Champions League14/04/2026
Atletico MadridBarcelona
12
UEFA Champions League08/04/2026
BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
02
La Liga04/04/2026
Atletico MadridBarcelona
12
Copa del Rey03/03/2026
BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
30
Copa del Rey12/02/2026
Atletico MadridBarcelona
40
La Liga02/12/2025
BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
31
Copa del Rey02/04/2025
Atletico MadridBarcelona
01
La Liga16/03/2025
Atletico MadridBarcelona
24
Copa del Rey25/02/2025
BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
44
La Liga21/12/2024
BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
12

Referee Profile

Javier Alberola Rojas155 matches

3.71Cards per match
3.53Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
26.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Javier Alberola Rojas3.71
Other referees4.89

3.71 cards a match, 1.18 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.89).

Cards come from 150 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona12110148:13+3533WWLWW
2Real MadridReal Madrid12100231:10+2130WWWWW
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1291223:10+1328LWWWW
4Real BetisReal Betis1282220:15+526WWDLW
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1271421:20+122WLWWW
6SevillaSevilla1253417:19-218DLWLD
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club1144315:11+416WWLDD
8VillarrealVillarreal1243517:15+215WLWDL
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1236315:14+115DWLDL
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander1242617:30-1314WLWLD
11Celta VigoCelta Vigo1227310:10013DLDWD
12AlavesAlaves1234515:17-213DLDLL
13EspanyolEspanyol1233613:14-112DWLLD
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1133515:21-612WLDDD
15GetafeGetafe123368:18-1012LWLDL
16OsasunaOsasuna1233612:23-1112DLLWL
17LevanteLevante1225516:21-511DLLWD
18ElcheElche1224614:20-610LLWDD
19ValenciaValencia122378:20-129LWLDD
20MalagaMalaga120579:23-145LLDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona1248:1333
2Real MadridReal Madrid1231:1030
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1223:1028
4Real BetisReal Betis1220:1526
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1221:2022
6SevillaSevilla1217:1918
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club1115:1116
8VillarrealVillarreal1217:1515
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1215:1415
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander1217:3014
11Celta VigoCelta Vigo1210:1013
12AlavesAlaves1215:1713
13EspanyolEspanyol1213:1412
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1115:2112
15GetafeGetafe128:1812
16OsasunaOsasuna1212:2312
17LevanteLevante1216:2111
18ElcheElche1214:2010
19ValenciaValencia128:209
20MalagaMalaga129:235
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Atletico Madrid and Barcelona in the La Liga table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Barcelona are 1st in the La Liga, 5 points ahead of Atletico Madrid in 3rd. League goal record so far: Atletico Madrid 23-10, Barcelona 48-13. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Barcelona have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.