Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction

Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian·Juan Martinez Munuera 08/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalHIGHModel53%SurpriseMediumGap-3.5%
Real Sociedad Rest
2 days
Rayo Vallecano Rest
8 days

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano: result, form and history

Real Sociedad beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0 in the La Liga on 8 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them. Rayo Vallecano tend to win more corners, 6.8 a game to 4.8 for Real Sociedad.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%1.75
X
23%4.10
2
27%4.22
Double Chance
1X
73%1.22
X2
50%2.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.53
No
39%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.7 + 1.21 = 2.91
Over 1.5
82%1.16
Over 2.5
62%1.57
Over 3.5
39%2.38
Under 1.5
18%4.95
Under 2.5
38%2.45
Under 3.5
61%1.57
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.9 = 9.6
Over 8.5
59%1.31
Over 9.5
48%1.58
Over 10.5
37%1.98
Under 8.5
41%3.04
Under 9.5
52%2.28
Under 10.5
63%1.77
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.3 = 4.5
Over 3.5
65%1.33
Over 4.5
46%1.73
Under 3.5
35%3.19
Under 4.5
54%2.04

Match Events

34'Georgiy TsitaishviliFoul
50'Igor ZubeldiaFoul
61'Benat TurrientesFoul
62'Takefusa Kubo INGonçalo Guedes out
62'Jon Aramburu INHector Fort out
67'Orri Steinn ÓskarssonAssist: Ander Barrenetxea
71'Ander Barrenetxea INJob Ochieng out
72'Benat Turrientes INJon Gorrotxategi out
79'Adrià Pedrosa INJozhua Vertrouwd out
79'Unai López INGnangoro Bouare out
79'Mujaid Sadick INIsi Palazón out
80'Sergio Camello INRandy Nteka out
84'Aihen Muñoz INSergio Gómez out
88'Gnangoro BouareFoul
89'Jozhua Vertrouwd INAlexandre Zurawski out

Lineups

Real Sociedad
4-2-3-1Coach: P. Matarazzo
Rayo Vallecano
4-2-3-1Coach: Beñat San José
Avg rating7.09
Avg rating6.47
Álex Remiro7.01Á. Remiro
J. Aramburu7.52J. Aramburu
Jon Martín7.36J. Martín
Zubeldia7.45Zubeldia
Aihen Muñoz6.93A. Muñoz
Beñat Turrientes7.28B. Turrientes
Carlos Soler7.118C. Soler
T. Kubo6.814T. Kubo
L. Sučić7.224L. Sučić
Barrenetxea7.57Barrenetxea
O. Óskarsson8.29O. Óskarsson
E. Audero6.325E. Audero
A. Rațiu6.72A. Rațiu
F. Lejeune7.024F. Lejeune
Mujaid Sadick6.615M. Sadick
Adrià Pedrosa6.917A. Pedrosa
Unai López6.78U. López
P. Ciss6.66P. Ciss
Jorge de Frutos6.119J. de Frutos
Pedro Díaz6.54P. Díaz
G. Tsitaishvili6.814G. Tsitaishvili
Sergio Camello5.810S. Camello

Real Sociedad Substitutes

15Pablo Marín
12J. Ochieng71'for Ander Barrenetxea6.4
16Jon Pacheco
22Héctor Fort62'for Jon Aramburu7.0
27Gorka Carrera
34Luken Beitia
11Gonçalo Guedes62'for Takefusa Kubo6.5
4Jon Gorrotxategi72'for Benat Turrientes6.8
17Sergio Gómez84'for Aihen Muñoz6.6
21Y. Herrera
13Unai Marrero
23A. Zakharyan

Rayo Vallecano Substitutes

1Dani Cárdenas
20I. Balliu
37Rayane Belid
36G. Bouare79'for Unai López88'6.3
22Pelayo Fernández
11R. Nteka80'for Sergio Camello6.3
7Isi Palazón79'for Mujaid Sadick6.4
21Fran Pérez
33J. Vertrouwd79'for Adrià Pedrosa89'for Alexandre Zurawski6.6
9Alemão89'replaced by Jozhua Vertrouwd6.2
26Marco de las Sías

Match Stats

Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
51%Ball Possession49%
7Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots11
3Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal6
11Shots Inside Box6
6Shots Outside Box5
8Blocked Shots2
11Fouls8
2Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves2
475Total Passes449
416Passes Accurate389
7Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
1815Elo Rating 1776
2.59Attack 1.34
1.80Defense 1.88
50%Hit Rate 27%
15.1Shots per Game 20.5
5.4Shots on Target 5.6
4.8Corners per Game 6.8
2.5Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.91 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 0.9 in second half)
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Real SociedadReal Sociedad3Wins · 30%
Draws550%
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano2Wins · 20%
2.9Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

La Liga26/04/2026
Rayo VallecanoReal Sociedad
33
La Liga05/10/2025
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
01
La Liga16/03/2025
Rayo VallecanoReal Sociedad
22
Copa del Rey16/01/2025
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
31
La Liga18/08/2024
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
12
La Liga27/01/2024
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
00
La Liga29/10/2023
Rayo VallecanoReal Sociedad
22
La Liga22/04/2023
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
21
La Liga21/01/2023
Rayo VallecanoReal Sociedad
02
La Liga01/05/2022
Rayo VallecanoReal Sociedad
11

Referee Profile

Juan Martinez Munuera158 matches

4.81Cards per match
4.61Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
26.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Juan Martinez Munuera4.81
Other referees4.82

4.81 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.82).

Cards come from 149 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona12110148:13+3533WWLWW
2Real MadridReal Madrid12100231:10+2130WWWWW
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1291223:10+1328LWWWW
4Real BetisReal Betis1282220:15+526WWDLW
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1271421:20+122WLWWW
6SevillaSevilla1253417:19-218DLWLD
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club1144315:11+416WWLDD
8VillarrealVillarreal1243517:15+215WLWDL
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1236315:14+115DWLDL
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander1242617:30-1314WLWLD
11Celta VigoCelta Vigo1227310:10013DLDWD
12AlavesAlaves1234515:17-213DLDLL
13EspanyolEspanyol1233613:14-112DWLLD
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1133515:21-612WLDDD
15GetafeGetafe123368:18-1012LWLDL
16OsasunaOsasuna1233612:23-1112DLLWL
17LevanteLevante1225516:21-511DLLWD
18ElcheElche1224614:20-610LLWDD
19ValenciaValencia122378:20-129LWLDD
20MalagaMalaga120579:23-145LLDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona1248:1333
2Real MadridReal Madrid1231:1030
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1223:1028
4Real BetisReal Betis1220:1526
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1221:2022
6SevillaSevilla1217:1918
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club1115:1116
8VillarrealVillarreal1217:1515
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1215:1415
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander1217:3014
11Celta VigoCelta Vigo1210:1013
12AlavesAlaves1215:1713
13EspanyolEspanyol1213:1412
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1115:2112
15GetafeGetafe128:1812
16OsasunaOsasuna1212:2312
17LevanteLevante1216:2111
18ElcheElche1214:2010
19ValenciaValencia128:209
20MalagaMalaga129:235
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga table

In the La Liga table, Real Sociedad are 5th and Rayo Vallecano 14th, 10 points apart. League goal record so far: Real Sociedad 21-20, Rayo Vallecano 15-21. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Real Sociedad have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.