Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction

Valencia
0-3
Finished
HT 0-2
Real Madrid
Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia·Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso 07/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.25
SignalGOODModel76%SurpriseMediumGap-6.8%
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.55
SignalGOODModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+7.4%
Valencia Rest
6 days
Real Madrid Rest
3 days

Valencia vs Real Madrid: result, form and history

Real Madrid beat Valencia 3-0 in the La Liga on 7 Nov 2026. It was in line with recent form: Real Madrid had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Valencia.

Real Madrid have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.2 goals a game. Referee Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso averages 4.14 cards a game, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
10%10.75
X
18%6.38
2
72%1.25
Double Chance
1X
28%3.83
X2
90%1.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.80
No
45%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.13 + 2.01 = 3.14
Over 1.5
84%1.11
Over 2.5
66%1.44
Over 3.5
44%2.15
Under 1.5
16%5.76
Under 2.5
34%2.75
Under 3.5
56%1.71
Corners
Projected Corners: 4 + 5.5 = 9.5
Over 8.5
58%1.41
Over 9.5
47%1.73
Over 10.5
36%2.20
Under 8.5
42%2.65
Under 9.5
53%2.04
Under 10.5
64%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.5 = 3.4
Over 3.5
44%1.84
Over 4.5
25%2.26
Under 3.5
56%1.90
Under 4.5
75%1.59

Match Events

26'Pablo MaffeoFoul
28'Federico Valverde
36'Arda Güler
45'Andriy LuninArgument
45'Justin De Haas INLuis Rioja out
50'Guido RodríguezFoul
59'Javier Aguirre OnaindíaDissent
59'Umar Sadiq INAimar Blázquez Labraca out
63'Guido Rodríguez INFilip Ugrinic out
63'Pablo Maffeo INArnau Martínez López out
75'Kylian MbappéAssist: Arda Güler
79'José Gayà
80'Yan DiomandeArgument
80'Luis RiojaArgument
81'José Luis García VayáFoul
81'Kylian MbappéFoul
82'Javi Guerra INJesús Vázquez out
84'Yan Diomande INBrahim Díaz out
84'Arda Güler INEduardo Camavinga out
84'Bernardo Silva INEndrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa out
90+1'Jude Bellingham INThiago Pitarch out
90+1'Kylian Mbappé INCarlos Espí out

Lineups

Valencia
5-3-2Coach: J. Aguirre
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1Coach: José Mourinho
Avg rating5.93
Avg rating7.48
S. Dimitrievski6.61S. Dimitrievski
Pablo Maffeo5.424P. Maffeo
Pepelu6.018Pepelu
César Tárrega6.25C. Tárrega
J. de Haas5.812J. de Haas
José Gayà5.414J. Gayà
Javi Guerra5.98J. Guerra
G. Rodríguez5.42G. Rodríguez
Aaron Mayol6.133A. Mayol
U. Sadiq6.36U. Sadiq
A. Danjuma6.47A. Danjuma
T. Courtois7.11T. Courtois
F. Valverde8.68F. Valverde
I. Konaté8.016I. Konaté
D. Huijsen7.94D. Huijsen
Marc Cucurella7.817M. Cucurella
Bernardo Silva7.220B. Silva
A. Tchouaméni7.214A. Tchouaméni
A. Güler9.015A. Güler
J. Bellingham7.35J. Bellingham
Y. Diomande6.825Y. Diomande
Kylian Mbappé7.710K. Mbappé

Valencia Substitutes

37Aimar Blázquez59'for Umar Sadiq6.2
4M. Diakhaby
15A. Dieng
9Hugo Duro
10H. Elliott
22Arnau Martínez63'for Pablo Maffeo5.6
19Dani Raba
11Luis Rioja45'for Justin De Haas80'6.0
23F. Ugrinic63'for Guido Rodríguez5.7
21Jesús Vázquez82'for Javi Guerra5.9
25K. van Oevelen
3Copete

Real Madrid Substitutes

27Thiago Pitarch90+1'for Jude Bellingham
26Sergio Mestre
13A. Lunin45'
19Carlos Espí90+1'for Kylian Mbappé
9Endrick84'for Bernardo Silva6.6
3Éder Militão
24D. Dumfries
21Brahim Díaz84'for Yan Diomande6.7
18Álvaro Fernández
6E. Camavinga84'for Arda Güler7.0
12T. Alexander-Arnold
22A. Rüdiger

Match Stats

ValenciaReal Madrid
32%Ball Possession68%
2Corner Kicks5
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
4Total Shots19
2Shots on Goal11
0Shots off Goal3
2Shots Inside Box12
2Shots Outside Box7
2Blocked Shots5
26Fouls6
3Offsides5
8Goalkeeper Saves2
288Total Passes629
225Passes Accurate568
5Free Kicks26

Team Comparison

ValenciaValencia
Real MadridReal Madrid
1735Elo Rating 2048
1.11Attack 3.11
1.79Defense 1.96
27%Hit Rate 100%
11.3Shots per Game 18.6
3.6Shots on Target 7.7
3.8Corners per Game 5.7
2.8Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.14 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

ValenciaValencia
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Real MadridReal Madrid
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

ValenciaValencia2Wins · 20%
Draws220%
Real MadridReal Madrid6Wins · 60%
3.2Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

La Liga08/02/2026
ValenciaReal Madrid
02
La Liga01/11/2025
Real MadridValencia
40
La Liga05/04/2025
Real MadridValencia
12
La Liga03/01/2025
ValenciaReal Madrid
12
La Liga02/03/2024
ValenciaReal Madrid
22
La Liga11/11/2023
Real MadridValencia
51
La Liga21/05/2023
ValenciaReal Madrid
10
La Liga02/02/2023
Real MadridValencia
20
Super Cup11/01/2023
Real MadridValencia
4131
La Liga08/01/2022
Real MadridValencia
41

Referee Profile

Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso44 matches

4.14Cards per match
3.98Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso4.14
Other referees4.85

4.14 cards a match, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.85).

Cards come from 44 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona12110148:13+3533WWLWW
2Real MadridReal Madrid12100231:10+2130WWWWW
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1291223:10+1328LWWWW
4Real BetisReal Betis1282220:15+526WWDLW
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1271421:20+122WLWWW
6SevillaSevilla1253417:19-218DLWLD
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club1144315:11+416WWLDD
8VillarrealVillarreal1243517:15+215WLWDL
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1236315:14+115DWLDL
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander1242617:30-1314WLWLD
11Celta VigoCelta Vigo1227310:10013DLDWD
12AlavesAlaves1234515:17-213DLDLL
13EspanyolEspanyol1233613:14-112DWLLD
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1133515:21-612WLDDD
15GetafeGetafe123368:18-1012LWLDL
16OsasunaOsasuna1233612:23-1112DLLWL
17LevanteLevante1225516:21-511DLLWD
18ElcheElche1224614:20-610LLWDD
19ValenciaValencia122378:20-129LWLDD
20MalagaMalaga120579:23-145LLDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona1248:1333
2Real MadridReal Madrid1231:1030
3Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1223:1028
4Real BetisReal Betis1220:1526
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1221:2022
6SevillaSevilla1217:1918
7Athletic ClubAthletic Club1115:1116
8VillarrealVillarreal1217:1515
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1215:1415
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander1217:3014
11Celta VigoCelta Vigo1210:1013
12AlavesAlaves1215:1713
13EspanyolEspanyol1213:1412
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano1115:2112
15GetafeGetafe128:1812
16OsasunaOsasuna1212:2312
17LevanteLevante1216:2111
18ElcheElche1214:2010
19ValenciaValencia128:209
20MalagaMalaga129:235
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Valencia vs Real Madrid forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Valencia and Real Madrid in the La Liga table

The table shows a wide gap: Real Madrid are 2nd in the La Liga, while Valencia sit 19th, 21 points behind. League goal record so far: Valencia 8-20, Real Madrid 31-10. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Real Madrid have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.