Ceara vs Novorizontino Prediction

Ceara
2-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Novorizontino
Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza·Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos 19/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
59%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+4.5%
Ceara Rest
5 days
Novorizontino Rest
5 days

Ceara vs Novorizontino: result, form and history

Ceara beat Novorizontino 2-1 in the Serie B on 19 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Novorizontino had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Ceara.

Novorizontino have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
35%2.75
X
31%3.10
2
34%2.53
Double Chance
1X
65%1.47
X2
65%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.83
No
44%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.19 + 1.31 = 2.50
Over 1.5
74%1.36
Over 2.5
52%2.12
Over 3.5
27%3.75
Under 1.5
26%2.90
Under 2.5
48%1.67
Under 3.5
73%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 5 = 9.6
Over 8.5
63%1.28
Over 9.5
54%1.51
Over 10.5
41%1.85
Under 8.5
37%3.14
Under 9.5
46%2.33
Under 10.5
59%1.89
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.3 = 4.4
Over 3.5
65%-
Over 4.5
45%-
Under 3.5
35%-
Under 4.5
55%-

Match Events

9'Julio Cesar Alves GoncalvesFoul
10'Patrick Marcos de Sousa FreitasFoul
31'Penalty cancelledEnzo Valentim Lodovico
45'Nicolás Ferreira INRian Bonfim De Santana out
45'Julio Cesar Alves Goncalves INMatheus Araujo out
45+1'Enderson Alves MoreiraDissent
45+2'Bryan Borges MascarenhasHandball
45+4'Matheus Henrique BianquiAssist: Madson Ferreira dos Santos
48'Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira
55'João Gabriel Santos BatistaFoul
61'Rian Bonfim De SantanaAssist: Enzo Valentim Lodovico
67'Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomes INJuninho out
67'Nicolas Morês da Cruz INDiego Galo out
78'Luís Oyama INCarlos Henrique de Moura Brito out
79'Romulo Azevedo Simão INVinicius out
80'Enzo Valentim Lodovico INRichardson out
82'Matheus Henrique BianquiFoul
87'Matheus Henrique Bianqui INLuiz Otavio Maria out
87'João Gabriel Santos Batista INLucas Mugni out
90+4'Penalty cancelledSaulo Mineiro
90+6'RobsonDissent
90+7'Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira INVinícius out
90+9'RichardsonFoul
90+10'JuninhoFoul

Lineups

Ceara
4-2-3-1Coach: Daniel Paulista
Novorizontino
4-2-3-1Coach: Enderson Moreira
Avg rating6.65
Avg rating6.58
Richard7.51Richard
Bryan6.531Bryan
Luiz Otávio6.34L. Otávio
Luiz Otávio6.813L. Otávio
Sanchez5.912Sanchez
Joao Gabriel6.681J. Gabriel
Júlio6.118Júlio
Enzo7.460Enzo
Richard7.540Richard
N. Ferreira6.211N. Ferreira
Saulo Mineiro6.173S. Mineiro
Jordi6.093Jordi
Madson7.22Madson
Gabriel Bahia6.826G. Bahia
Patrick6.14Patrick
Sander6.95Sander
Matheus Bianqui8.217M. Bianqui
Luis Oyama6.16L. Oyama
Reidiney6.441Reidiney
Romulo7.110Romulo
Nicolas Careca6.530N. Careca
Robson6.211Robson

Ceara Substitutes

16Rian Bonfim De Santana45'replaced by Nicolás Ferreira61'
7Giovanni Pavani
26Richardson80'for Enzo Valentim Lodovico90+9'6.0
2Rafael Ramos
23Caíque França
29Vina90+7'for Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira
99Lucca
77Lenny Lobato
45Vini Uchella
10L. Mugni87'for João Gabriel Santos Batista6.3
8Matheus Araújo45'for Julio Cesar Alves Goncalves6.3
6Sávio

Novorizontino Substitutes

19Diego Galo67'for Nicolas Morês da Cruz6.2
66Maykon
15Tavinho87'for Matheus Henrique Bianqui6.7
18Léo Naldi
28Marlon
14Eduardo Brock
31César
50Juninho67'for Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomes90+10'6.4
9Carlão78'for Luís Oyama6.3
3Carlinhos
16Vinícius79'for Romulo Azevedo Simão6.3

Match Stats

CearaNovorizontino
46%Ball Possession54%
2Corner Kicks9
4Yellow Cards4
8Total Shots24
3Shots on Goal9
4Shots off Goal10
6Shots Inside Box14
2Shots Outside Box10
1Blocked Shots5
11Fouls13
4Offsides2
8Goalkeeper Saves1
330Total Passes393
240Passes Accurate305
12Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

CearaCeara
NovorizontinoNovorizontino
1579Elo Rating 1745
0.80Attack 2.27
1.45Defense 2.18
14%Hit Rate 81%
14.7Shots per Game 16.8
4.0Shots on Target 5.9
4.0Corners per Game 5.5
2.5Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CearaCeara
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
NovorizontinoNovorizontino
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

CearaCeara2Wins · 40%
Draws00%
NovorizontinoNovorizontino3Wins · 60%
3.0Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
80%3+ goals4 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie B23/05/2026
NovorizontinoCeara
21
Serie B27/08/2024
CearaNovorizontino
10
Serie B11/05/2024
NovorizontinoCeara
03
Serie B19/09/2023
NovorizontinoCeara
41
Serie B28/05/2023
CearaNovorizontino
03

Referee Profile

Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos94 matches

5.40Cards per match
5.15Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
25.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos5.40
Other referees5.22

5.40 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.22).

Cards come from 52 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino372010766:32+3470WWWDW
2JuventudeJuventude371911749:26+2368WDWDD
3Vila NovaVila Nova37199953:38+1566WDLDW
4CriciumaCriciuma371881138:31+762LWLWW
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC371614744:33+1162LDDWD
6CRBCRB371771357:51+658WLWLD
7GoiasGoias371771339:41-258WWWDW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense371513945:35+1058WDLDD
9Sport RecifeSport Recife3714131050:42+855LDWLD
10Operario-PROperario-PR371591349:50-154WLWLL
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3714101352:42+1052LWWLD
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP371491445:39+651WDWWW
13CuiabaCuiaba3711141234:32+247LLLLL
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3711141244:44047LWLDD
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3812101641:51-1046LLWLD
16CearaCeara3711101638:47-943LLLDL
17AvaiAvai371171935:47-1240WLLDW
18LondrinaLondrina38982147:59-1235WLLLW
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro37852427:55-2829WWWWL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta37362821:79-5815LLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3766:3270
2JuventudeJuventude3749:2668
3Vila NovaVila Nova3753:3866
4CriciumaCriciuma3738:3162
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3744:3362
6CRBCRB3757:5158
7GoiasGoias3739:4158
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3745:3558
9Sport RecifeSport Recife3750:4255
10Operario-PROperario-PR3749:5054
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3752:4252
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3745:3951
13CuiabaCuiaba3734:3247
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3744:4447
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3841:5146
16CearaCeara3738:4743
17AvaiAvai3735:4740
18LondrinaLondrina3847:5935
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3727:5529
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3721:7915
PromotionRelegation

About the Ceara vs Novorizontino forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Ceara and Novorizontino in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Novorizontino are 1st and Ceara 16th, 27 points apart. League goal record so far: Ceara 38-47, Novorizontino 66-32. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Novorizontino have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.