Ceara vs Cuiaba Prediction

Ceara
1-3
Finished
HT 0-1
Cuiaba
Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo, Fortaleza·Lucas Guimarães Rechatiko Horn, Brazil 15/08/2026
CearaCeara
1-3
Finished
CuiabaCuiaba

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalSTRONGModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+2.5%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.61
SignalGOODModel50%SurpriseMediumGap+11.2%
Ceara Rest
7 days
Cuiaba Rest
5 days

Ceara vs Cuiaba: the result in context

Cuiaba beat Ceara 3-1 in the Serie B on 15 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Ceara had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Cuiaba.

Their history points to a close game: 5 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game. Cuiaba tend to win more corners, 9.2 a game to 4.6 for Ceara.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%2.30
X
29%2.86
2
13%3.55
Double Chance
1X
87%1.25
X2
42%1.60
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%2.25
No
49%1.56
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.36 + 0.89 = 2.25
Over 1.5
69%1.61
Over 2.5
45%2.85
Over 3.5
24%6.00
Under 1.5
31%2.25
Under 2.5
55%1.40
Under 3.5
76%1.11
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 4.2 = 10.4
Over 8.5
64%1.33
Over 9.5
52%1.63
Over 10.5
42%2.01
Under 8.5
36%2.87
Under 9.5
48%2.15
Under 10.5
58%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.6 = 4.9
Over 3.5
68%-
Over 4.5
48%1.44
Under 3.5
32%-
Under 4.5
52%2.50

Match Events

6'Marcelo Carné INJoão Carlos out
41'Jean DiasAssist: Eliel
46'Vina INMelk out
46'Giovanni Pavani INLucas Mugni out
46'Pepê INDavid out
54'Calebe Costa
58'Nicolás Ferreira INRenzo López out
58'Rafael Ramos INEnzo Valentim Lodovico out
59'RichardsonFoul
67'Giulio INMatheus Araújo out
69'Calebe CostaFoul
70'Enzo Valentim LodovicoAssist: Lucca
71'Eliel INKauan Cristtyan out
80'Jean Dias INRodrigo Rodrigues out
80'Lorenzo INWeverson out
87'Enzo Valentim Lodovico INKauã Ziegler out
88'Pedro Henrique INVinicius Peixoto out
90+2'ÉderFoul
90+7'Kauan CristtyanAssist: Rodrigo Rodrigues

Lineups

Ceara
4-2-3-1Coach: Paulista Daniel
Cuiaba
3-4-2-1Coach: Eduardo Barros
Avg rating6.53
Avg rating7.01
Richard6.01Richard
Rafael Ramos6.52R. Ramos
Júlio César6.318J. César
Éder6.233Éder
Sávio5.26Sávio
Giovanni Pavani6.921G. Pavani
RichardsonC6.526Richardson
Nicolás Ferreira6.720N. Ferreira
Vina6.229Vina
Giulio6.335Giulio
Lucca7.299Lucca
Marcelo Carné31M. Carné
João Basso6.313J. Basso
Calebe Costa7.25C. Costa
Vitor Mendes6.74V. Mendes
Igor Inocencio7.32I. Inocencio
RaulC6.630Raul
Pepê6.98Pepê
Lorenzo6.336Lorenzo
Eliel7.211Eliel
Jean Dias8.277J. Dias
Pedro Henrique6.796P. Henrique

Ceara Substitutes

11Lucas Mugni46'for Giovanni Pavani6.9
40Melk46'for Vina6.6
60Enzo Valentim Lodovico58'for Rafael Ramos70'87'for Kauã Ziegler7.7
7Renzo López58'for Nicolás Ferreira6.9
8Matheus Araújo67'for Giulio6.6
90Kauã Ziegler87'replaced by Enzo Valentim Lodovico6.3
22Matheus Nogueira
12Sánchez
13Luiz Otávio
71Gabriel Silva Rocha
88José Wilson Neto

Cuiaba Substitutes

1João Carlos6'for Marcelo Carné7.6
20David46'for Pepê7.0
41Kauan Cristtyan71'for Eliel90+7'7.3
53Weverson80'for Lorenzo7.0
27Rodrigo Rodrigues80'for Jean Dias7.3
29Vinicius Peixoto88'for Pedro Henrique6.6
91Luisão
37Railan
97Luiz Otavio
39Gui Mansano

Match Stats

CearaCuiaba
64%Ball Possession36%
4Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards1
7Total Shots14
3Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal8
4Shots Inside Box10
3Shots Outside Box4
0Blocked Shots1
17Fouls13
1Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves2
487Total Passes267
420Passes Accurate198
86%Pass Accuracy74%

Team Comparison

CearaCeara
CuiabaCuiaba
1591Elo Rating 1596
0.76Attack 0.28
1.81Defense 2.31
31%Hit Rate 14%
13.7Shots per Game 20.3
3.8Shots on Target 5.3
4.6Corners per Game 9.2
2.6Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CearaCeara
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CuiabaCuiaba
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

CearaCeara2Wins · 40%
Draws360%
CuiabaCuiaba0Wins · 0%
1.8Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
20%3+ goals1 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie B04/04/2026
CuiabaCeara
02
Serie A16/10/2022
CearaCuiaba
11
Serie A19/06/2022
CuiabaCeara
00
Serie A08/11/2021
CearaCuiaba
10
Serie A11/07/2021
CuiabaCeara
22

Referee Profile

Lucas Guimarães Rechatiko Horn83 matches

4.80Cards per match
4.56Yellow cards per match
0.24Red cards per match
29.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Lucas Guimarães Rechatiko Horn4.80
Other referees5.23

4.80 cards a match, 0.43 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.23).

Cards come from 25 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino361910764:31+3367WWDWW
2JuventudeJuventude361811747:25+2265DWDDW
3Vila NovaVila Nova36189952:38+1463DLDWD
4CriciumaCriciuma361881038:30+862WLWWL
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC361614643:31+1262DDWDW
6CRBCRB361671354:51+355LWLDW
7GoiasGoias361671338:41-355WWDWW
8Sport RecifeSport Recife361413948:39+955DWLDW
9Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense361413942:33+955DLDDL
10São BernardoSão Bernardo3614101251:40+1152WWLDL
11Botafogo SPBotafogo SP371491445:39+651WDWWW
12Operario-PROperario-PR361491346:48-251LWLLL
13CuiabaCuiaba3611141133:30+347LLLLD
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3611141142:41+147WLDDL
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3612101440:46-646WLDLL
16CearaCeara3611101538:46-843LLDLW
17AvaiAvai361071933:46-1337LLDWW
18LondrinaLondrina37882145:58-1332LLLWD
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro36752426:55-2926WWWLL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta36362721:78-5715LDDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3664:3167
2JuventudeJuventude3647:2565
3Vila NovaVila Nova3652:3863
4CriciumaCriciuma3638:3062
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3643:3162
6CRBCRB3654:5155
7GoiasGoias3638:4155
8Sport RecifeSport Recife3648:3955
9Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3642:3355
10São BernardoSão Bernardo3651:4052
11Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3745:3951
12Operario-PROperario-PR3646:4851
13CuiabaCuiaba3633:3047
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3642:4147
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3640:4646
16CearaCeara3638:4643
17AvaiAvai3633:4637
18LondrinaLondrina3745:5832
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3626:5526
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3621:7815
PromotionRelegation

About the Ceara vs Cuiaba forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Ceara and Cuiaba in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Cuiaba are 13th and Ceara 16th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Ceara 38-46, Cuiaba 33-30. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.