Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense Prediction

Chapecoense-sc
2-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Fluminense
Arena Condá, Chapeco·Anderson Daronco 25/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.56
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+5.4%
Chapecoense-sc Rest
7 days
Fluminense Rest
2 days

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense: the result in context

Chapecoense-sc beat Fluminense 2-1 in the Serie A on 24 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.0 a game across 3 meetings, with both teams scoring in 2. Referee Anderson Daronco averages 4.50 cards a game, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
20%4.50
X
25%3.70
2
55%1.77
Double Chance
1X
45%1.96
X2
80%1.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.74
No
45%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.14 + 1.74 = 2.88
Over 1.5
76%1.25
Over 2.5
53%1.84
Over 3.5
32%3.10
Under 1.5
24%3.70
Under 2.5
47%1.96
Under 3.5
68%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 5.3 = 9.6
Over 8.5
61%1.44
Over 9.5
49%1.74
Over 10.5
37%2.25
Under 8.5
39%2.53
Under 9.5
51%1.97
Under 10.5
63%1.58
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 2 = 4.6
Over 3.5
68%1.47
Over 4.5
49%1.83
Under 3.5
32%2.60
Under 4.5
51%1.83

Match Events

9'Yannick BolasieAssist: Giovanni Augusto
30'Claudio Rodrigues GomesAssist: Hulk
37'Camilo Reijers de OliveiraFoul
45'Maurício Garcez INTulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira out
56'Giovanni AugustoAssist: Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira
57'Yago FelipeFoul
65'Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado INRiquelme Felipe·Silva de Almeida out
65'Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima INLuciano Acosta out
70'Yannick Bolasie INKevin Ramírez out
70'Yago Felipe INBruno Matias out
73'João Paulo INRafael Thyere out
79'Hércules Pereira do Nascimento INRodrigo Castillo out
83'Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior INFernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior out
85'Hulk INGermán Ezequiel Cano Recalde out
85'Igor Rabello INRenê Rodrigues Martins out
90+2'Guilherme AranaFoul

Lineups

Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1Coach: Rafael Lacerda
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Marcão
Avg rating6.57
Anderson6.798Anderson
Bruno Tubarão6.920B. Tubarão
Doma6.53Doma
João Paulo7.04J. Paulo
Bruno Pacheco6.691B. Pacheco
Camilo6.427Camilo
Yago Felipe6.188Y. Felipe
Marcinho6.27Marcinho
Giovanni Augusto9.010G. Augusto
Garcez6.231Garcez
Y. Bolasie7.911Y. Bolasie
Fábio5.81Fábio
Guga7.623Guga
Ignacio6.84Ignacio
Igor Rabello6.721I. Rabello
Guilherme Arana6.113G. Arana
Nonato6.816Nonato
Hércules7.035Hércules
Wesley Nata6.034W. Nata
PH Ganso6.310P. Ganso
K. Serna6.290K. Serna
Hulk6.67Hulk

Chapecoense-sc Substitutes

80Miguel Carvalho
16Bruno Matias70'for Yago Felipe6.3
19David Antunes
23Dudu
12Fernando83'for Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior6.4
22Max
15Rafael Thyere73'for João Paulo6.3
94K. Ramírez70'for Yannick Bolasie6.6
9Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira45'replaced by Maurício Garcez
29F. Rossi
30Matheus Aurélio
39Rodrigo

Fluminense Substitutes

19R. Castillo79'for Hércules Pereira do Nascimento6.5
22J. Freytes
94Otávio
6Renê85'for Igor Rabello6.5
28Riquelme65'for Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado6.9
2Samuel Xavier
3Thiago Silva
98Vitor Eudes
32L. Acosta65'for Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima6.7
14G. Cano85'for Hulk
17A. Canobbio
41Ruan Sales Oliveira

Match Stats

Chapecoense-scFluminense
26%Ball Possession74%
3Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards1
6Total Shots16
3Shots on Goal5
2Shots off Goal8
1Shots Inside Box5
3Shots Outside Box1
1Blocked Shots3
12Fouls12
2Offsides0
4Goalkeeper Saves1
251Total Passes727
193Passes Accurate669
12Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
FluminenseFluminense
1508Elo Rating 1742
0.54Attack 1.26
0.59Defense 1.99
0%Hit Rate 41%
12.4Shots per Game 10.0
2.8Shots on Target 3.5
4.5Corners per Game 3.9
2.0Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.88 goals
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
  • No tendency data available
FluminenseFluminense
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
FluminenseFluminense3Wins · 100%
3.0Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
100%3+ goals3 of 3

Previous meetings

Serie A27/04/2026
FluminenseChapecoense-sc
21
Serie A10/12/2021
FluminenseChapecoense-sc
30
Serie A08/09/2021
Chapecoense-scFluminense
12

Referee Profile

Anderson Daronco304 matches

4.50Cards per match
4.26Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
27.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Anderson Daronco4.50
Other referees5.21

4.50 cards a match, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.21).

Cards come from 236 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PalmeirasPalmeiras32209356:22+3469WWWWD
2FlamengoFlamengo31207461:25+3667WWDWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro321661051:46+554WWLWW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense32159850:38+1254DLWDW
5FluminenseFluminense31149849:39+1051LLWWL
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG31148942:35+750WWDWD
7BahiaBahia311310844:39+549LWLLW
8SantosSantos311291048:46+245WLDWW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo321271337:36+143DWWLL
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino321181339:38+141LDWDL
11BotafogoBotafogo321091344:51-739LWDLL
12CoritibaCoritiba311091238:49-1139LDLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama311081339:45-638WLDWW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
16InternacionalInternacional328111336:40-435WLDWL
17CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
18GremioGremio317101434:44-1031LDDDL
19RemoRemo325111634:50-1626LDDDL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc30391830:62-3218WLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PalmeirasPalmeiras3256:2269
2FlamengoFlamengo3161:2567
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3251:4654
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3250:3854
5FluminenseFluminense3149:3951
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3142:3550
7BahiaBahia3144:3949
8SantosSantos3148:4645
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3237:3643
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3239:3841
11BotafogoBotafogo3244:5139
12CoritibaCoritiba3138:4939
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3139:4538
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15MirassolMirassol3237:4537
16InternacionalInternacional3236:4035
17CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
18GremioGremio3134:4431
19RemoRemo3234:5026
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3030:6218
PromotionRelegation

About the Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Fluminense are 5th and Chapecoense-sc 20th, 33 points apart. League goal record so far: Chapecoense-sc 30-62, Fluminense 49-39. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.