Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Gremio
3-1
Finished
HT 2-1
Chapecoense-sc
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre·Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil 30/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
56%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.87
SignalNEUTRALModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+5.6%
Gremio Rest
2 days
Chapecoense-sc Rest
7 days

Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc: result, form and history

Gremio beat Chapecoense-sc 3-1 in the Serie A on 30 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 2.0 goals a game across 5 matches.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.53
X
23%4.00
2
17%5.80
Double Chance
1X
83%1.13
X2
40%2.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.87
No
44%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.76 + 0.86 = 2.62
Over 1.5
75%1.25
Over 2.5
51%1.83
Over 3.5
32%3.05
Under 1.5
25%3.65
Under 2.5
49%1.95
Under 3.5
68%1.35
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4.4 = 10.1
Over 8.5
66%1.44
Over 9.5
53%1.73
Over 10.5
39%2.19
Under 8.5
34%2.61
Under 9.5
47%2.00
Under 10.5
61%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 3.1 = 4.9
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
50%-
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
50%-

Match Events

15'Mauricio GarcezAssist: Giovanni Augusto
18'Gustavo MartinsAssist: J. Enamorado
28'C. Pavon
40'Marlon
44'Walter Kannemann
46'Marlon INPedro Gabriel out
52'J. Enamorado INJoao Pedro out
52'M. Braithwaite INCarlos Vinicius out
55'Eduardo DomaFoul
56'Gustavo MartinsAssist: C. Pavon
61'Mauricio Garcez INF. Rossi out
61'Bruno Matias INM. Carvalho out
65'Danilo Barbosa INBernardo Zortea out
71'Bruno Pacheco
75'Bruno Pacheco INFernando out
76'F. Amuzu INTete out
80'Giovanni Augusto INEnio out
80'Marcinho IND. Borrero out
90+2'TeteFoul

Lineups

Gremio
4-1-4-1Coach: Luis Castro
Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1Coach: Lacerda Rafael
Avg rating7.03
Avg rating6.54
Weverton9.21Weverton
Cristian Pavón8.27C. Pavón
Gustavo Martins8.66G. Martins
Wallace8.382Wallace
Marlon6.623Marlon
Danilo Barbosa6.315D. Barbosa
José Enamorado6.399J. Enamorado
Mathias VillasantiC6.520M. Villasanti
Filip Krovinović6.310F. Krovinović
Francis Amuzu6.99F. Amuzu
Martin Braithwaite6.522M. Braithwaite
Anderson5.998Anderson
Heitor5.95Heitor
Kauan6.321Kauan
Eduardo DomaC6.23E. Doma
Bruno Pacheco6.291B. Pacheco
Yago Felipe6.988Y. Felipe
Bruno Matias6.616B. Matias
Marcinho6.37Marcinho
Giovanni Augusto7.310G. Augusto
Maurício Garcez7.331M. Garcez
Tulio Eduardo7.29T. Eduardo

Gremio Substitutes

12Gabriel Grando
4Walter Kannemann44'
54Pedro Gabriel46'for Marlon6.3
3Wagner Leonardo
18João Pedro52'for J. Enamorado6.6
65Riquelme Freitas
50Zortéa65'for Danilo Barbosa6.9
40Jefinho
95Carlos Vinícius52'for M. Braithwaite6.3
30Matheus Nascimento
11Tetê76'for F. Amuzu90+2'6.7

Chapecoense-sc Substitutes

30Matheus
12Fernando75'for Bruno Pacheco6.3
15Rafael Thyere
19David Antunes
70Rubens Tadeu
80Miguel Carvalho61'for Bruno Matias6.2
26Everton
97Ênio80'for Giovanni Augusto6.7
77Dylan Borrero80'for Marcinho6.7
29Franco Rossi61'for Mauricio Garcez6.6
44Luciano

Match Stats

GremioChapecoense-sc
53%Ball Possession47%
5Corner Kicks7
3Yellow Cards2
12Total Shots32
5Shots on Goal9
2Shots off Goal18
6Shots Inside Box17
6Shots Outside Box15
5Blocked Shots5
11Fouls10
7Goalkeeper Saves2
540Total Passes461
484Passes Accurate417
90%Pass Accuracy90%

Team Comparison

GremioGremio
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
1668Elo Rating 1506
1.56Attack 0.80
1.63Defense 0.85
59%Hit Rate 19%
12.3Shots per Game 10.9
4.3Shots on Target 3.3
5.9Corners per Game 4.1
2.0Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+163 Elo
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

GremioGremio
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

GremioGremio2Wins · 40%
Draws240%
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc1Wins · 20%
2.0Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie A17/03/2026
Chapecoense-scGremio
11
Serie B26/07/2022
Chapecoense-scGremio
00
Serie B16/04/2022
GremioChapecoense-sc
01
Serie A20/11/2021
Chapecoense-scGremio
13
Serie A10/08/2021
GremioChapecoense-sc
21

Referee Profile

Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima170 matches

5.31Cards per match
5.05Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
27.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima5.31
Other referees5.25

5.31 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.25).

Cards come from 118 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Gremio and Chapecoense-sc in the Serie A table

Gremio and Chapecoense-sc are close in the Serie A table, 18th and 20th, with 16 points between them. League goal record so far: Gremio 38-47, Chapecoense-sc 33-68. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Gremio have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.