Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction

Genoa
1-2
Finished
HT 0-2
AC Milan
Luigi Ferraris, Genoa·Davide Massa 08/11/2026
GenoaGenoa
1-2
Finished
AC MilanAC Milan

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.22
SignalGOODModel53%SurpriseMediumGap-8.4%
Genoa Rest
6 days
AC Milan Rest
2 days

Genoa vs AC Milan: the result in context

AC Milan beat Genoa 2-1 in the Serie A on 8 Nov 2026. That went against recent form: Genoa had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for AC Milan.

AC Milan have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
26%4.20
X
29%3.40
2
45%1.95
Double Chance
1X
55%1.89
X2
74%1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%1.92
No
51%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.04 + 1.44 = 2.48
Over 1.5
69%1.37
Over 2.5
45%2.17
Over 3.5
25%3.86
Under 1.5
31%3.05
Under 2.5
55%1.71
Under 3.5
75%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 4.8 = 9.3
Over 8.5
56%1.84
Over 9.5
44%2.35
Over 10.5
34%3.12
Under 8.5
44%1.95
Under 9.5
56%1.55
Under 10.5
66%1.30
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.4 = 4.5
Over 3.5
66%1.62
Over 4.5
47%2.31
Under 3.5
34%2.20
Under 4.5
53%1.58

Match Events

13'Alphadjo CissèAssist: Adrien Rabiot
19'Christian PulisicAssist: Gonçalo Ramos
28'Sankhoun DiawaraFoul
50'Alessandro MarcandalliFoul
50'Adrien RabiotDissent
61'Alphadjo Cissè INOmari Hutchinson out
62'Sankhoun Diawara INFilippo Terracciano out
62'Junior Messias INTommaso Baldanzi out
62'Alessandro Marcandalli INStephan El Shaarawy out
74'Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira INLorenzo Colombo out
76'Christian PulisicNot retreating
79'Christian Pulisic INArdon Jashari out
84'Hamed Junior Traorè INDjibril Sow out
84'Samuel Wiafe INFranz-Ethan Meichtry out
87'Mario GilaFoul
87'Yunus Musah INPervis Estupinan out
88'Mikael EllertssonAssist: Tommaso Baldanzi
90+4'Kingsley EhizibueFoul

Lineups

Genoa
3-4-2-1Coach: D. De Rossi
AC Milan
3-4-2-1Coach: Ruben Amorim
Avg rating6.27
Avg rating6.98
J. Bijlow5.71J. Bijlow
A. Marcandalli5.627A. Marcandalli
L. Østigård7.05L. Østigård
J. Vásquez6.822J. Vásquez
K. Ehizibue5.83K. Ehizibue
S. Wiafe6.471S. Wiafe
H. Traorè6.125H. Traorè
M. Ellertsson7.177M. Ellertsson
Junior Messias6.310J. Messias
Vítinha6.19Vítinha
M. Osmajić5.918M. Osmajić
M. Maignan6.916M. Maignan
Mario Gila7.134M. Gila
K. De Winter7.35K. De Winter
S. Bocoum6.713S. Bocoum
Diego Moreira6.322D. Moreira
L. Modrić7.214L. Modrić
A. Rabiot7.612A. Rabiot
Y. Musah6.680Y. Musah
C. Pulišić8.211C. Pulišić
A. Cissè7.570A. Cissè
Gonçalo Ramos6.79G. Ramos

Genoa Substitutes

2M. Mitaj
4Alexsandro Amorim
8T. Baldanzi62'for Junior Messias6.4
29L. Colombo74'for Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira6.6
16C. Drameh
92S. El Shaarawy62'for Alessandro Marcandalli6.5
17E. Havel
11E. Meichtry84'for Samuel Wiafe6.0
34S. Otoa
31D. Puczka
20S. Sabelli
39D. Sommariva
97D. Sow84'for Hamed Junior Traorè6.0
99F. Stolz
76L. Venturino

AC Milan Substitutes

33D. Bartesaghi
35V. Vladimirov
41L. P. Bouyer
73F. Camarda
28C. Comotto
2P. Estupiñán87'for Yunus Musah6.6
20O. Hutchinson61'for Alphadjo Cissè6.5
30A. Jashari79'for Christian Pulisic6.5
42F. Terracciano62'for Sankhoun Diawara7.0
96L. Torriani

Match Stats

GenoaAC Milan
38%Ball Possession62%
3Corner Kicks0
2Yellow Cards4
17Total Shots6
5Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal3
7Shots Inside Box4
10Shots Outside Box2
6Blocked Shots1
14Fouls13
3Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves5
335Total Passes576
263Passes Accurate488
11Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

GenoaGenoa
AC MilanAC Milan
1749Elo Rating 1840
1.47Attack 1.41
2.26Defense 1.03
83%Hit Rate 39%
11.0Shots per Game 10.8
2.8Shots on Target 3.2
3.5Corners per Game 2.8
1.7Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

GenoaGenoa
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 0 in second half)
AC MilanAC Milan
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

GenoaGenoa0Wins · 0%
Draws440%
AC MilanAC Milan6Wins · 60%
2.5Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A17/05/2026
GenoaAC Milan
12
Serie A08/01/2026
AC MilanGenoa
11
Serie A05/05/2025
GenoaAC Milan
12
Serie A15/12/2024
AC MilanGenoa
00
Serie A05/05/2024
AC MilanGenoa
33
Serie A07/10/2023
GenoaAC Milan
01
Serie A15/04/2022
AC MilanGenoa
20
Coppa Italia13/01/2022
AC MilanGenoa
3111
Serie A01/12/2021
GenoaAC Milan
03
Serie A18/04/2021
AC MilanGenoa
21

Referee Profile

Davide Massa224 matches

4.78Cards per match
4.57Yellow cards per match
0.21Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Davide Massa4.78
Other referees4.41

4.78 cards a match, 0.37 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.41).

Cards come from 214 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LazioLazio1192025:9+1629DWWWW
2InterInter1191128:13+1528WLWWW
3AS RomaAS Roma1183031:10+2127WWWDW
4AC MilanAC Milan1173123:13+1024WWLWW
5ComoComo1172218:10+823LWWWW
6FrosinoneFrosinone1162324:15+920LWWDW
7JuventusJuventus1153315:12+318DWLWL
8BolognaBologna1152416:14+217WWWWL
9CagliariCagliari1151510:15-516WLLLL
10NapoliNapoli1143418:14+415DLWDL
11TorinoTorino1142515:17-214DLLWW
12AtalantaAtalanta1142517:20-314WLDDL
13GenoaGenoa1141611:16-513LWWWL
14LecceLecce1131712:22-1010DLLLW
15FiorentinaFiorentina1123617:25-89DWDLL
16ParmaParma112279:17-88LWDLL
17SassuoloSassuolo1122716:29-138LLLLL
18MonzaMonza1121817:25-87LLLLW
19VeneziaVenezia112098:21-136WLLLW
20UdineseUdinese1112812:25-135LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1LazioLazio1125:929
2InterInter1128:1328
3AS RomaAS Roma1131:1027
4AC MilanAC Milan1123:1324
5ComoComo1118:1023
6FrosinoneFrosinone1124:1520
7JuventusJuventus1115:1218
8BolognaBologna1116:1417
9CagliariCagliari1110:1516
10NapoliNapoli1118:1415
11TorinoTorino1115:1714
12AtalantaAtalanta1117:2014
13GenoaGenoa1111:1613
14LecceLecce1112:2210
15FiorentinaFiorentina1117:259
16ParmaParma119:178
17SassuoloSassuolo1116:298
18MonzaMonza1117:257
19VeneziaVenezia118:216
20UdineseUdinese1112:255
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Genoa vs AC Milan forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Genoa and AC Milan in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, AC Milan are 4th and Genoa 13th, 11 points apart. League goal record so far: Genoa 11-16, AC Milan 23-13. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Genoa have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. AC Milan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.