Puebla vs Monterrey Prediction

Puebla
1-4
Finished
HT 0-3
Monterrey
Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla·Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas 22/10/2026
PueblaPuebla
1-4
Finished
MonterreyMonterrey

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalHIGHModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-3.7%
Puebla Rest
4 days
Monterrey Rest
3 days

Puebla vs Monterrey: result, form and history

Monterrey beat Puebla 4-1 in the Liga MX on 22 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Monterrey had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Puebla.

Monterrey have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game. Monterrey tend to win more corners, 5.7 a game to 3.2 for Puebla.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
26%3.90
X
26%3.60
2
48%1.85
Double Chance
1X
52%1.88
X2
74%1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.62
No
42%2.11
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.3 + 1.55 = 2.85
Over 1.5
78%1.20
Over 2.5
56%1.73
Over 3.5
34%2.78
Under 1.5
22%4.00
Under 2.5
44%2.10
Under 3.5
66%1.42
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 4.9 = 9.4
Over 8.5
59%1.36
Over 9.5
47%1.67
Over 10.5
35%2.04
Under 8.5
41%2.68
Under 9.5
53%2.08
Under 10.5
65%1.67
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.1 = 3.9
Over 3.5
55%1.47
Over 4.5
35%1.83
Under 3.5
45%2.57
Under 4.5
65%1.83

Match Events

17'Diego RossiAssist: Lucas Ocampos
31'Hugo Cuypers
34'Lucas OcamposAssist: Óliver Torres
45'Heriberto Jurado INOmar Moreno out
45'Carlos Salcedo INDaniel Aceves out
45'Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges INEduardo Armenta out
56'Eduardo Mustre INL. Hernández out
57'Orbelín Pineda INRoberto de la Rosa out
57'Hugo Cuypers INLucas Orellano out
58'Diego Rossi INIker Fimbres out
61'Roberto de la RosaAssist: Óliver Torres
65'Alonso Ramirez INIgnacio Maestro out
66'Facundo AlmadaAssist: Juan Pablo Vargas
76'Lucas Ocampos INJesús Corona out
79'Iker Moreno INJosé Pachuca out
90'Lucas OrellanoDissent
90+1'Ricardo ChávezDissent

Lineups

Puebla
4-2-3-1Coach: Gerardo Espinoza
Monterrey
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Almeyda
Avg rating6.14
Avg rating7.24
R. Gutiérrez5.628R. Gutiérrez
I. Moreno5.612I. Moreno
F. Almada6.55F. Almada
J. Vargas6.84J. Vargas
F. Monárrez5.87F. Monárrez
A. Organista6.424A. Organista
A. Ramírez6.016A. Ramírez
B. Garnica6.327B. Garnica
M. Tomás5.710M. Tomás
H. Jurado6.125H. Jurado
E. Mustre6.329E. Mustre
E. Andrada6.91E. Andrada
R. Chávez7.12R. Chávez
V. Guzmán7.54V. Guzmán
C. Salcedo6.913C. Salcedo
G. Arteaga7.33G. Arteaga
Óliver Torres8.68Ó. Torres
O. Pineda7.125O. Pineda
Cesar Garza Cantu6.518C. Garza Cantu
D. Rossi7.69D. Rossi
L. Ocampos8.67L. Ocampos
H. Cuypers8.099H. Cuypers

Puebla Substitutes

14E. Armenta45'for Mathías Adrián Tomás Borges6.2
6J. Díaz
9L. Hernández56'for Eduardo Mustre6.4
3A. Herrera
19I. Maestro Puch65'for Alonso Ramirez6.2
8O. Moreno45'for Heriberto Jurado6.5
20J. Pachuca79'for Iker Moreno5.8
33J. Rodríguez
15Ó. Villa
195Alvaro Burgos

Monterrey Substitutes

27R. de la Rosa57'for Orbelín Pineda61'7.3
30J. Rodríguez
21L. Reyes
10L. Orellano57'for Hugo Cuypers90'6.6
33S. Medina
11Iker Jareth Fimbres Ochoa58'for Diego Rossi6.6
22L. Cárdenas
17J. Corona76'for Lucas Ocampos6.4
5F. Ambríz
19A. Aceves45'for Carlos Salcedo7.0

Match Stats

PueblaMonterrey
40%Ball Possession60%
2Corner Kicks8
0Yellow Cards2
12Total Shots14
4Shots on Goal6
7Shots off Goal5
7Shots Inside Box12
5Shots Outside Box2
1Blocked Shots3
5Fouls5
6Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves2
374Total Passes573
301Passes Accurate483
5Free Kicks5

Team Comparison

PueblaPuebla
MonterreyMonterrey
1492Elo Rating 1651
0.61Attack 2.20
1.42Defense 1.64
0%Hit Rate 64%
11.8Shots per Game 12.6
3.7Shots on Target 4.8
3.2Corners per Game 5.7
1.0Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

PueblaPuebla
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
MonterreyMonterrey
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.8 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

PueblaPuebla1Wins · 10%
Draws330%
MonterreyMonterrey6Wins · 60%
2.5Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga MX22/04/2026
MonterreyPuebla
21
Liga MX30/08/2025
PueblaMonterrey
24
Liga MX13/01/2025
MonterreyPuebla
11
Liga MX17/08/2024
PueblaMonterrey
12
Liga MX14/01/2024
MonterreyPuebla
20
Liga MX04/10/2023
PueblaMonterrey
11
Liga MX28/01/2023
PueblaMonterrey
12
Liga MX27/07/2022
MonterreyPuebla
10
Liga MX19/02/2022
PueblaMonterrey
10
Liga MX26/07/2021
MonterreyPuebla
11

Referee Profile

Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas36 matches

5.14Cards per match
4.91Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
25.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas5.14
Other referees4.67

5.14 cards a match, 0.47 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.67).

Cards come from 35 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Club AmericaClub America1283132:16+1627WWDWD
2TolucaToluca1465329:19+1023DDDLD
3Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1365220:12+823WDDLD
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul1372429:22+723WWDDL
5Club LeonClub Leon1464421:18+322WDLWD
6AtlasAtlas1363421:23-221LWDWD
7MonterreyMonterrey1262423:17+620WWDLW
8Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1262416:15+120LLWWD
9Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1361619:16+319WWWWW
10Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1454519:22-319WWDLW
11Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1245317:16+117DDDLD
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1344519:22-316LWDLD
13PueblaPuebla1344513:17-416LDDLD
14Tigres UANLTigres UANL1335514:18-414LDWWL
15Atlante FCAtlante FC1435614:20-614LWLLW
16CF PachucaCF Pachuca1334620:18+213LLDLD
17NecaxaNecaxa1424816:27-1110DLLDL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez1412119:33-245DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Club AmericaClub America1232:1627
2TolucaToluca1429:1923
3Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas1320:1223
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul1329:2223
5Club LeonClub Leon1421:1822
6AtlasAtlas1321:2321
7MonterreyMonterrey1223:1720
8Club QueretaroClub Queretaro1216:1520
9Santos LagunaSantos Laguna1319:1619
10Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis1419:2219
11Club TijuanaClub Tijuana1217:1617
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas1319:2216
13PueblaPuebla1313:1716
14Tigres UANLTigres UANL1314:1814
15Atlante FCAtlante FC1414:2014
16CF PachucaCF Pachuca1320:1813
17NecaxaNecaxa1416:2710
18FC JuarezFC Juarez149:335
Promotion

About the Puebla vs Monterrey forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Puebla and Monterrey in the Liga MX table

In the Liga MX table, Monterrey are 7th and Puebla 13th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Puebla 13-17, Monterrey 23-17. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Monterrey have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.