Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction
Mexico · Apertura - 16
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Toluca vs Monterrey: the result in context
Toluca beat Monterrey 4-0 in the Liga MX on 8 Nov 2026. That went against recent form: Monterrey had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Toluca.
Toluca have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.3 goals a game. Toluca tend to win more corners, 9.4 a game to 7.0 for Monterrey.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Toluca
Avg ratingAvg rating
1H. González
17B. García
13Luan
25E. López
20J. Gallardo
5F. Romero
35É. Gutiérrez
11Helinho
8N. Castro
9A. Vega
26Paulinho
1E. Andrada
2R. Chávez
4V. Guzmán
13C. Salcedo
3G. Arteaga
8Ó. Torres
25O. Pineda
18C. Garza Cantu
9D. Rossi
7L. Ocampos
99H. CuypersToluca Substitutes
Monterrey Substitutes
Match Stats
TolucaMonterrey Team Comparison
TolucaMonterreyAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Toluca- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Monterrey- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 0.5 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Toluca6Wins · 60%3Wins · 30%Previous meetings
04/10/2026MonterreyToluca
07/09/2026TolucaMonterrey
11/01/2026MonterreyToluca07/12/2025TolucaMonterrey04/12/2025MonterreyToluca25/09/2025TolucaMonterrey11/05/2025TolucaMonterrey08/05/2025MonterreyToluca19/01/2025TolucaMonterrey01/09/2024MonterreyTolucaRecent Form
TolucaMonterreyMonterrey
Club TijuanaMonterrey
Guadalajara Chivas
PueblaMonterreyMonterrey
CF Pachuca
Club AmericaMonterreyMonterreyToluca
Atlante FCMonterreyMonterrey
Cruz AzulMonterrey
Tigres UANLTolucaMonterreyReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
4.45 cards a match, 0.26 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.71).
Cards come from 29 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37:26 | +11 | 32 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38:23 | +15 | 30 | DDDLW |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26:15 | +11 | 30 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35:21 | +14 | 27 | WDDDD |
| 5 |  Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27:30 | -3 | 27 | LWWLW |
| 6 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23:20 | +3 | 25 | WWLWW |
| 7 |  Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23:21 | +2 | 23 | DLDWL |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29:20 | +9 | 22 | WWWLL |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25:22 | +3 | 22 | LDDWD |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | +1 | 21 | LDLWW |
| 11 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:26 | -2 | 21 | DWDLW |
| 12 |  Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18:23 | -5 | 20 | LLLLL |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:23 | -4 | 19 | WLLLD |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:24 | -5 | 19 | LLWWD |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 15 | LLDLD |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16:26 | -10 | 14 | LLLWL |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:28 | -11 | 13 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13:34 | -21 | 11 | WWDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 37:26 | 32 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 38:23 | 30 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 26:15 | 30 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 35:21 | 27 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 27:30 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 23:21 | 23 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 29:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 25:22 | 22 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 26:25 | 21 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 24:26 | 21 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 18:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 19:23 | 19 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 19:24 | 19 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 16:26 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 13:34 | 11 |
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About the Toluca vs Monterrey forecast
The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Toluca and Monterrey in the Liga MX table
In the Liga MX table, Toluca are 4th and Monterrey 10th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Toluca 35-21, Monterrey 26-25. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.