AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Prediction
Netherlands · Regular Season - 12
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.47
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+2.1%
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.40
SignalGOODModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+2.0%
AZ Alkmaar Rest
2 days
Groningen Rest
7 days
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: the result in context
AZ Alkmaar beat Groningen 4-3 in the Eredivisie on 8 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
AZ Alkmaar have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.4 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
165%1.47
X20%4.75
215%5.97
Double Chance
1X85%1.13
X235%2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes61%1.51
No39%2.39
Goals
Projected Goals: 2 + 1 = 3.00
Over 1.584%1.10
Over 2.564%1.40
Over 3.545%2.04
Under 1.516%6.31
Under 2.536%2.88
Under 3.555%1.77
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 3.7 = 9.6
Over 8.560%1.50
Over 9.548%1.85
Over 10.537%2.17
Under 8.540%2.38
Under 9.552%1.85
Under 10.563%1.63
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 2.3 = 3.7
Over 3.551%2.42
Over 4.532%-
Under 3.549%1.53
Under 4.568%-
Match Events
2'Jacob Ondrejka
9'Mexx MeerdinkAssist: Ro Zangelo Daal
47'Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonAssist: Jacob Ondrejka
54'Thom Van Bergen
57'Penalty confirmedElijah Dijkstra
58'Marco RenteFoul
59'Mexx Meerdink(Penalty missed)
60'Valdemar Byskov Andreasen INKees Smit out
60'Wouter Goes INJordy Clasie out
61'Pelle ClementFoul
61'Ayoub OufkirAssist: Mexx Meerdink
73'Mark Csinger INWouter Prins out
73'Jacob Ondrejka INTygo Land out
76'Mateo Chávez
79'Jorg Schreuders INTyrique Mercera out
84'Ro Zangelo Daal INCalvin Stengs out
84'Elijah Dijkstra INDenso Kasius out
85'Etienne VaessenFoul
88'Etienne Vaessen
90'Tika de Jonge INLovro Stubljar out
90'Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson INNils Eggens out
90+1'Mexx Meerdink(Penalty)
90+5'Peer KoopmeinersFoul
90+6'Mateo Chávez INMees de Wit out
90+10'Hans HateboerHandball
Lineups
AZ AlkmaarGroningen
4-2-3-1Coach: D. LukkienAvg ratingAvg rating
28J. De Busser
22E. Dijkstra
3W. Goes
29W. Hoedt
5M. Chávez
21D. Kwakman
6P. Koopmeiners
24A. Oufkir
17V. Byskov
11R. Daal
9M. Meerdink
1E. Vaessen
33H. Hateboer
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
4M. Csinger
8T. de Jonge
24P. Clement
14J. Schreuders
9B. Willumsson
11J. Ondrejka
26T. van BergenAZ Alkmaar Substitutes
12H. Verhulst
14C. Stengs84'for Ro Zangelo Daal
10K. Smit60'for Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
1R. Owusu-Oduro
20A. Natali
2S. Maikuma
18B. Kovacs
30D. Kasius84'for Elijah Dijkstra
31R. Ichihara
34M. de Wit90+6'for Mateo Chávez
8J. Clasie60'for Wouter Goes
27Wassim bouziane
Groningen Substitutes
19O. Zawada
15E. van der Laan
13L. Štubljar90'for Tika de Jonge
2Wouter Prins73'for Mark Csinger
16A. Nordin
42J. Mosselaar
29Tyrique Mercera79'for Jorg Schreuders
18T. Land73'for Jacob Ondrejka
20Nils Eggens90'for Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
44Besnik Mashuku
12M. Brandis
30P. Boevink
Match Stats
AZ AlkmaarGroningen 58%Ball Possession42%
7Corner Kicks0
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards2
19Total Shots9
5Shots on Goal5
11Shots off Goal4
13Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box2
3Blocked Shots0
11Fouls13
2Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves1
496Total Passes358
404Passes Accurate259
12Free Kicks11
Team Comparison
AZ AlkmaarGroningen1797Elo Rating 1661
1.21Attack 1.96
1.56Defense 0.37
17%Hit Rate 14%
15.8Shots per Game 16.1
5.0Shots on Target 7.0
5.3Corners per Game 5.0
1.6Cards per Game 1.8
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+135 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.99 goals
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
AZ Alkmaar- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Groningen- Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.8 in second half)
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
AZ Alkmaar6Wins · 60%Draws220%
Groningen2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%2.4Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
22/03/2026GroningenAZ Alkmaar30
10/08/2025AZ AlkmaarGroningen41
11/05/2025AZ AlkmaarGroningen30
18/12/2024AZ AlkmaarGroningen31
25/08/2024GroningenAZ Alkmaar00
11/03/2023AZ AlkmaarGroningen10
01/10/2022GroningenAZ Alkmaar14
21/12/2021AZ AlkmaarGroningen10
24/10/2021GroningenAZ Alkmaar20
13/05/2021GroningenAZ Alkmaar00
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar3W2D5L
05/11/2026AZ Alkmaar
Juventus
AjaxAZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
Twente
Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar
CambuurAZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
Hapoel Beer Sheva
FeyenoordAZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
Telstar
SunderlandAZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
Willem II
AZ AlkmaarJuventus12
L31/10/2026AjaxAZ Alkmaar10
L25/10/2026AZ AlkmaarTwente02
L22/10/2026Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar04
W18/10/2026CambuurAZ Alkmaar22
D15/10/2026AZ AlkmaarHapoel Beer Sheva21
W10/10/2026FeyenoordAZ Alkmaar20
L20/09/2026AZ AlkmaarTelstar10
W16/09/2026SunderlandAZ Alkmaar10
L11/09/2026AZ AlkmaarWillem II11
DGroningen2W3D5L
01/11/2026Groningen
Sparta RotterdamGroningen
Emmen
NEC NijmegenGroningenGroningenAjax
ExcelsiorGroningenGroningen
PEC Zwolle
GO Ahead EaglesGroningenGroningenTwenteGroningen
Fortuna Sittard
PSV EindhovenGroningen
GroningenSparta Rotterdam23
L29/10/2026GroningenEmmen02
L25/10/2026NEC NijmegenGroningen22
D18/10/2026GroningenAjax25
L11/10/2026ExcelsiorGroningen15
W18/09/2026GroningenPEC Zwolle30
W12/09/2026GO Ahead EaglesGroningen11
D06/09/2026GroningenTwente22
D28/08/2026GroningenFortuna Sittard23
L23/08/2026PSV EindhovenGroningen51
LReferee Profile
3.37Cards per match
3.26Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
22.6Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.37 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.22).
Cards come from 155 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40:15 | +25 | 26 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36:17 | +19 | 25 | LDDWW |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32:15 | +17 | 25 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30:12 | +18 | 24 | DWWLD |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24:16 | +8 | 23 | WLLDL |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24:16 | +8 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:20 | 0 | 20 | DDWDD |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24:27 | -3 | 17 | WLWLD |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29:28 | +1 | 15 | LLDLW |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25:27 | -2 | 15 | LWWDW |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20:21 | -1 | 14 | WLDDD |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21:29 | -8 | 12 | LWLWD |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13:24 | -11 | 12 | DWDWL |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21:34 | -13 | 12 | LLDWW |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16:29 | -13 | 11 | LLLLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18:25 | -7 | 10 | DWLLD |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16:25 | -9 | 9 | WLLWD |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11:40 | -29 | 3 | DLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 40:15 | 26 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 36:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 32:15 | 25 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 30:12 | 24 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 24:16 | 23 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 24:16 | 21 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 20:20 | 20 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 24:27 | 17 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 29:28 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 25:27 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 20:21 | 14 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 21:29 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 13:24 | 12 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 21:34 | 12 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 16:29 | 11 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 18:25 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 16:25 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 11:40 | 3 |
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About the AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen forecast
The forecasts for this Eredivisie match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
AZ Alkmaar and Groningen in the Eredivisie table
In the Eredivisie table, AZ Alkmaar are 5th and Groningen 9th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: AZ Alkmaar 24-16, Groningen 29-28. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.