Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction

Kashima
2-3
Finished
HT 1-2
Kashiwa Reysol
Mercari Stadium, Kashima·Atsushi Kamimura 24/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalGOODModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-2.7%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.53
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Kashima Rest
2 days
Kashiwa Reysol Rest
2 days

Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol: the result in context

Kashiwa Reysol beat Kashima 3-2 in the J1 League on 24 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Kashima have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.1 goals a game. Referee Atsushi Kamimura averages 3.26 cards a game, 0.57 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%2.25
X
26%3.60
2
29%2.96
Double Chance
1X
71%1.36
X2
55%1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.60
No
42%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.57 + 1.09 = 2.66
Over 1.5
77%1.22
Over 2.5
54%1.75
Over 3.5
32%2.81
Under 1.5
23%3.94
Under 2.5
46%2.05
Under 3.5
68%1.39
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4 = 9.2
Over 8.5
56%1.50
Over 9.5
44%1.87
Over 10.5
33%2.31
Under 8.5
44%2.42
Under 9.5
56%1.87
Under 10.5
67%1.53
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.2 + 2.1 = 3.4
Over 3.5
43%-
Over 4.5
25%-
Under 3.5
57%-
Under 4.5
75%-

Match Events

14'Homare TokudaAssist: Ryoya Ogawa
35'Keita EndoAssist: Sachiro Toshima
39'Nobuteru NakagawaFoul
45'Homare Tokuda INAleksandar Čavrić out
45'Yuki Kakita INMao Hosoya out
45'Keisuke Tsukui INRyuta Koike out
45+1'Hinata YamauchiAssist: Keita Endo
51'Shusuke Furuya INTojiro Kubo out
59'Hinata YamauchiAssist: Nobuteru Nakagawa
60'Keita Endo INKenshin Yuba out
60'Hinata Yamauchi INYusuke Segawa out
62'Gaku Shibasaki INMatheus Bueno out
62'Haruki Hayashi INJosé Élber Pimentel da Silva out
75'Penalty cancelledMao Hosoya
78'Ryoya Ogawa INMinato Yoshida out
88'Aleksandar ČavrićAssist: José Élber Pimentel da Silva
90'Sachiro Toshima INYudai Konishi out

Lineups

Kashima
4-4-2Coach: T. Oniki
Kashiwa Reysol
3-4-2-1Coach: Ricardo Rodríguez
Avg rating6.51
Avg rating6.50
T. Hayakawa5.71T. Hayakawa
K. Tsukui6.123K. Tsukui
N. Ueda6.755N. Ueda
Kim Tae-Hyeon6.33K. Tae-Hyeon
R. Ogawa6.97R. Ogawa
Y. Matsumura6.327Y. Matsumura
G. Shibasaki6.210G. Shibasaki
K. Misao6.06K. Misao
H. Hayashu6.324H. Hayashu
H. Tokuda7.734H. Tokuda
Y. Suzuki6.840Y. Suzuki
K. Nagai5.929K. Nagai
W. Harada6.842W. Harada
T. Koga5.84T. Koga
D. Sugioka6.326D. Sugioka
3030S. Furuya
N. Nakagawa6.739N. Nakagawa
S. Toshima6.528S. Toshima
K. Endo7.75K. Endo
Y. Koizumi6.18Y. Koizumi
H. Yamauchi8.487H. Yamauchi
Y. Kakita6.618Y. Kakita

Kashima Substitutes

5I. Sekigawa
8Matheus Bueno62'for Gaku Shibasaki6.8
77A. Čavrić45'for Homare Tokuda88'7.3
17Élber62'for Haruki Hayashi6.7
14Y. Higuchi
25R. Koike45'for Keisuke Tsukui6.1
35A. Motosuna
21T. Yamada
30M. Yoshida78'for Ryoya Ogawa6.5

Kashiwa Reysol Substitutes

40R. Harakawa
21Y. Konishi90'for Sachiro Toshima
24T. Kubo51'replaced by Shusuke Furuya6.0
2H. Mitsumaru
1H. Saruta
20Y. Segawa60'for Hinata Yamauchi6.2
32Y. Yamanouchi
44K. Yuba60'for Keita Endo5.9
9M. Hosoya45'for Yuki Kakita6.7

Match Stats

KashimaKashiwa Reysol
62%Ball Possession38%
9Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards1
24Total Shots11
3Shots on Goal6
12Shots off Goal3
17Shots Inside Box9
7Shots Outside Box2
9Blocked Shots2
4Fouls13
2Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves1
621Total Passes397
518Passes Accurate306
13Free Kicks4

Team Comparison

KashimaKashima
Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol
1696Elo Rating 1661
1.83Attack 2.39
1.73Defense 1.43
50%Hit Rate 58%
15.4Shots per Game 13.0
4.5Shots on Target 4.9
4.3Corners per Game 4.3
0.4Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

KashimaKashima
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 0.7 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

KashimaKashima6Wins · 60%
Draws330%
Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1Wins · 10%
2.1Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

J1 League24/04/2026
Kashiwa ReysolKashima
01
J1 League21/02/2026
KashimaKashiwa Reysol
20
J1 League20/07/2025
KashimaKashiwa Reysol
32
J1 League08/03/2025
Kashiwa ReysolKashima
13
J1 League21/09/2024
KashimaKashiwa Reysol
00
J1 League06/05/2024
Kashiwa ReysolKashima
12
J1 League11/11/2023
KashimaKashiwa Reysol
11
J-League Cup24/05/2023
KashimaKashiwa Reysol
10
J1 League09/04/2023
Kashiwa ReysolKashima
10
J-League Cup08/03/2023
Kashiwa ReysolKashima
11

Referee Profile

Atsushi Kamimura103 matches

3.26Cards per match
3.04Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
23.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Atsushi Kamimura3.26
Other referees2.69

3.26 cards a match, 0.57 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.69).

Cards come from 23 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1283130:10+2027DWWWL
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1283127:8+1927WDWWW
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1282229:10+1926WLWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1281325:19+625WDLWW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1272318:11+723DLWLW
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1264225:18+722WWWLD
7UrawaUrawa1270521:23-221WWWLW
8KashimaKashima1262425:21+420LDWWD
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1246216:12+418DDDDW
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1251615:17-216LWLLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1242614:18-414DDWWL
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1235412:19-714DDLDD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1242610:20-1014LLDWW
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1233615:19-412LWLDD
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1225514:21-711DWDLL
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1224615:23-810DDLLW
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1223712:22-109LLLLL
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy121569:21-128WDLLL
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1221913:21-87LLLWL
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1214712:24-127DLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1230:1027
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1227:827
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1229:1026
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1225:1925
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1218:1123
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1225:1822
7UrawaUrawa1221:2321
8KashimaKashima1225:2120
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1216:1218
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1215:1716
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1214:1814
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1212:1914
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1210:2014
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1215:1912
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1214:2111
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1215:2310
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1212:229
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy129:218
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1213:217
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1212:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol forecast

The forecasts for this J1 League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League table

In the J1 League table, Kashiwa Reysol are 4th and Kashima 8th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Kashima 25-21, Kashiwa Reysol 25-19. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Kashiwa Reysol have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.