Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction
England · Regular Season - 7
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: the result in context
Aston Villa beat Newcastle 1-0 in the Premier League on 17 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Aston Villa had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Newcastle.
Newcastle have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.2 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Newcastle
Avg ratingAvg rating
21L. Horníček
67L. Miley
12M. Thiaw
4S. Botman
3L. Hall
6N. González
7Joelinton
20M. Fernandez-Pardo
28J. Willock
11H. Barnes
9Y. Wissa
1Z. Suzuki
2M. Cash
3V. Lindelöf
5T. Mings
29A. Wan-Bissaka
8B. Kamara
35J. Gomes
47A. Edward
44J. Manzambi
10E. Buendía
11N. JacksonNewcastle Substitutes
Aston Villa Substitutes
Match Stats
NewcastleAston Villa Team Comparison
NewcastleAston VillaAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Newcastle- No tendency data available
Aston Villa- Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 1.3 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Newcastle6Wins · 60%3Wins · 30%Previous meetings
14/02/2026Aston VillaNewcastle
25/01/2026NewcastleAston Villa16/08/2025Aston VillaNewcastle19/04/2025Aston VillaNewcastle26/12/2024NewcastleAston Villa30/01/2024Aston VillaNewcastle12/08/2023NewcastleAston Villa15/04/2023Aston VillaNewcastle29/10/2022NewcastleAston Villa13/02/2022NewcastleAston VillaRecent Form
Newcastle
CoventryNewcastleNewcastle
Hull City
LeedsNewcastle
MillwallNewcastleNewcastle
Bournemouth
TottenhamNewcastleNewcastle
West BromNewcastle
LiverpoolNewcastle
StrasbourgNewcastle
Bayer LeverkusenAston VillaAston Villa
FenerbahçeAston Villa
Brentford
SevillaAston VillaTottenhamAston VillaCoventryAston VillaAston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Club Brugge KVAston VillaHull CityAston VillaAston Villa
Arsenal
BrightonAston VillaReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
3.69 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.79).
Cards come from 168 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19:7 | +12 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11:5 | +6 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23:5 | +18 | 16 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9:8 | +1 | 12 | WLWDW |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13:8 | +5 | 10 | LDWDD |
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 10 | DLDWD |
| 8 |  Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8:7 | +1 | 10 | LDWDD |
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | +1 | 9 | LDLDD |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 9 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | -4 | 8 | LLWLD |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:11 | -4 | 8 | WDWLD |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:10 | 0 | 7 | DDDLD |
| 14 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:17 | -8 | 7 | LWDLW |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:13 | -4 | 6 | WLLDD |
| 16 | Tottenham | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 | WDLDD |
| 17 | Coventry | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 18 |  Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 5 | WLDDL |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:9 | -4 | 5 | LLLWD |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 19:7 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 11:5 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 23:5 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 17:13 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 9:8 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 13:8 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 8:7 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 8:7 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 11:15 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 7:11 | 8 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 7 | 10:10 | 7 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 9:17 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 9:13 | 6 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 7 | 6:10 | 6 |
| 17 | Coventry | 7 | 6:14 | 6 |
| 18 | Fulham | 7 | 7:10 | 5 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 6:14 | 4 |
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This match
About the Newcastle vs Aston Villa forecast
The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Newcastle and Aston Villa in the Premier League table
In the Premier League table, Newcastle (11th) and Aston Villa (12th) are level on 8 points. League goal record so far: Newcastle 10-14, Aston Villa 7-11. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Aston Villa have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.