Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction

Newcastle
2-1
Finished
HT 2-0
Hull City
St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne·Tony Harrington 19/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.83
SignalSOLIDModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+9.0%
Newcastle Rest
4 days
Hull City Rest
7 days

Newcastle vs Hull City: the result in context

Newcastle beat Hull City 2-1 in the Premier League on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.62
X
23%4.33
2
17%5.20
Double Chance
1X
83%1.17
X2
40%2.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.67
No
48%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.87 + 0.96 = 2.83
Over 1.5
75%1.17
Over 2.5
56%1.62
Over 3.5
37%2.60
Under 1.5
25%4.53
Under 2.5
44%2.30
Under 3.5
63%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 3.6 = 9.9
Over 8.5
65%1.28
Over 9.5
52%1.50
Over 10.5
38%1.88
Under 8.5
35%3.17
Under 9.5
48%2.40
Under 10.5
62%1.91
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.2 = 3.9
Over 3.5
55%1.67
Over 4.5
35%2.38
Under 3.5
45%2.11
Under 4.5
65%1.56

Match Events

3'Joe WillockAssist: Harvey Barnes
7'Lewis HallAssist: Harvey Barnes
29'Matt CrooksFoul
39'Mohamed BelloumiFoul
45'Matt Crooks INTim Iroegbunam out
45+2'Konstantinos TzolakisDissent
45+2'Yoane Wissa(Penalty missed)
45+3'Jacob MurphyTime wasting
49'Ryan GilesFoul
63'Sorba Thomas INMohamed Ali Cho out
66'Sean Steur INFabian Schär out
67'Mohamed Ali ChoAssist: Mohamed Belloumi
74'Matias Fernandez-Pardo INBazoumana Touré out
78'Regan Slater INLucas Gourna-Douath out
78'John Egan INRobinio Vaz out
83'Mohamed Belloumi INJoe Gelhardt out
87'Joe Willock INAladji Bamba out

Lineups

Newcastle
4-2-3-1Coach: Matthias Jaissle
Hull City
5-4-1Coach: S. Jakirović
Avg rating6.91
Avg rating6.39
L. Horníček6.721L. Horníček
L. Miley7.067L. Miley
M. Thiaw7.012M. Thiaw
S. Botman7.34S. Botman
L. Hall7.23L. Hall
Sean Steur6.714S. Steur
J. Willock8.228J. Willock
J. Murphy6.223J. Murphy
M. Fernandez-Pardo6.420M. Fernandez-Pardo
H. Barnes8.211H. Barnes
Y. Wissa6.59Y. Wissa
K. Tzolakis6.519K. Tzolakis
L. Coyle5.72L. Coyle
S. Ajayi6.36S. Ajayi
J. Egan6.615J. Egan
L. Herrington6.822L. Herrington
R. Giles6.33R. Giles
M. Belloumi6.810M. Belloumi
M. Crooks6.125M. Crooks
R. Slater6.227R. Slater
S. Thomas5.97S. Thomas
O. McBurnie6.29O. McBurnie

Newcastle Substitutes

76M. Miley
17B. Touré74'for Matias Fernandez-Pardo6.4
8A. Bamba87'for Joe Willock6.4
5F. Schär66'for Sean Steur6.5
48Miodrag Pivaš
1N. Pope
49V. Salia
44K. Thompson
77M. Mills

Hull City Substitutes

50M. Cho63'for Sorba Thomas67'7.5
12D. Phillips
17P. McNair
11J. Gelhardt83'for Mohamed Belloumi6.7
14J. Hjertø-Dahl
21E. Stroud
29L. Gourna-Douath78'for Regan Slater6.1
42T. Iroegbunam45'for Matt Crooks6.0
47R. Vaz78'for John Egan6.4

Match Stats

NewcastleHull City
56%Ball Possession44%
4Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards5
12Total Shots22
5Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal7
9Shots Inside Box12
3Shots Outside Box10
2Blocked Shots11
4Fouls10
2Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves3
523Total Passes382
460Passes Accurate302
10Free Kicks4

Team Comparison

NewcastleNewcastle
Hull CityHull City
1805Elo Rating 1702
1.18Attack 1.11
1.19Defense 1.50
37%Hit Rate 0%
17.8Shots per Game 11.7
4.8Shots on Target 2.9
5.9Corners per Game 4.9
3.0Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+103 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.83 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

NewcastleNewcastle
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
Hull CityHull City
  • No tendency data available

Recent Form

NewcastleNewcastle
4W2D4L
14/09/2026
LeedsNewcastle
41
L
08/09/2026
MillwallNewcastle
01
W
05/09/2026
NewcastleBournemouth
22
D
29/08/2026
TottenhamNewcastle
02
W
26/08/2026
NewcastleWest Brom
32
W
23/08/2026
NewcastleLiverpool
22
D
16/08/2026
NewcastleStrasbourg
2131
L
15/08/2026
NewcastleBayer Leverkusen
12
L
12/08/2026
NewcastleEverton
13
L
08/08/2026
ValenciaNewcastle
12
W
Hull CityHull City
4W4D2L
12/09/2026
ChelseaHull City
22
D
08/09/2026
SunderlandHull City
10
L
05/09/2026
Hull CityAston Villa
00
D
29/08/2026
CoventryHull City
01
W
25/08/2026
Stoke CityHull City
4151
W
22/08/2026
Hull CityManchester United
20
W
15/08/2026
Hull CityNice
00
D
08/08/2026
Eintracht FrankfurtHull City
20
L
01/08/2026
KasımpaşaHull City
11
D
28/07/2026
RizesporHull City
12
W

Referee Profile

Tony Harrington147 matches

3.55Cards per match
3.44Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
22.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tony Harrington3.55
Other referees3.74

3.55 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.74).

Cards come from 141 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ArsenalArsenal980114:5+924WWWWL
2Manchester CityManchester City970220:10+1021LLWWW
3BrightonBrighton961224:7+1719WLWWW
4ChelseaChelsea951319:15+416WLWWL
5LiverpoolLiverpool943211:9+215LWWLW
6BrentfordBrentford935116:9+714WDLDW
7BournemouthBournemouth933314:13+112WWWLL
8TottenhamTottenham933310:10012WWWDL
9Aston VillaAston Villa933310:13-312DWWDW
10Hull CityHull City925211:10+111DDLDL
11LeedsLeeds92529:8+111LDDLD
12NewcastleNewcastle832312:14-211WLLWL
13IpswichIpswich932414:18-411DDLWL
14EvertonEverton82428:9-110LLDWD
15FulhamFulham92349:11-29DWWLD
16CoventryCoventry93069:16-79WLLWW
17Manchester UnitedManchester United914410:15-57LLDDD
18Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace92169:21-127LLLWD
19Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest91356:12-66LDLLL
20SunderlandSunderland91267:17-105LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ArsenalArsenal914:524
2Manchester CityManchester City920:1021
3BrightonBrighton924:719
4ChelseaChelsea919:1516
5LiverpoolLiverpool911:915
6BrentfordBrentford916:914
7BournemouthBournemouth914:1312
8TottenhamTottenham910:1012
9Aston VillaAston Villa910:1312
10Hull CityHull City911:1011
11LeedsLeeds99:811
12NewcastleNewcastle812:1411
13IpswichIpswich914:1811
14EvertonEverton88:910
15FulhamFulham99:119
16CoventryCoventry99:169
17Manchester UnitedManchester United910:157
18Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace99:217
19Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest96:126
20SunderlandSunderland97:175
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Newcastle vs Hull City forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Newcastle and Hull City in the Premier League table

In the Premier League table, Newcastle (12th) and Hull City (10th) are level on 11 points. League goal record so far: Newcastle 12-14, Hull City 11-10. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Newcastle and Hull City have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.